Warming A Warning

[Brian McKay]

Slowly but surely spring has come to the tundra, my version of spring that is. The average low for the days is now in the minus teens and the highs can creep into the minus single digits.

Our snow machines are thawed out tuned up and ready to go. If the weather holds and the long range forecast stays positive we’ll head up the coast of Hudson Bay to one of our cabins for the weekend…..said with fingers crossed.

I don’t anticipate taping any surprises but with some luck I may get some caribou, foxes and ground squirrels. However as we all know one never knows what the heck will cross in front of the lens. The area is inhabited by the King of the Ice, wolverines (I’d need Per’s luck) wolves and every other sea and land animal of the Arctic.....except people.

Boy oh boy did I ever get off the track. The actual reason for the post was to make comment on Global Warming and its obvious effects. Right now we should have at least 3 feet (1 meter) of snow cover on the land and the ice should be up to 7 feet (2 meters) thick however we have maybe with luck 6 inches of snow cover and as little as 5 feet of ice. In the eyes of some this is great the snow will be gone sooner and the lakes and bay open to boating earlier than in previous years…..but what are the effects on the wildlife? Will the milder temperatures and shorter ice season put the bear on the land earlier than in the past? Will the wolf population increase because it’s easier to hunt caribou on land that isn’t covered with deep snow?

Interesting times…… are you seeing the same things??

Brian

[Greg Boston]

Brian, we have to be careful here. There are 'heated' arguments both for and against the notion of global warming and DVINFO has a strict policy of neutrality.

However, I will say that what happened in Dallas and FURTHER SOUTH in Waco last weekend taken as an isolated incident wouldn't support that theory (he said with tongue in cheek). I have no strong feelings one way or the other.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productv...SFWD&version=0

I admire you, Brian. I could not live where you do.

-gb-

[Dale Guthormsen]

Brian,

Curiously, did you ever give any presentations on wildlife in alberta??? For some reason it seems like I know you/ or name somehow.

Global warming has its effects, just like global cooling did in the distant past. A human liftime is nothing in the spectrum of time of this planet.

When I was in Africa I was talking to observant sportsmen there. I mentioned how here in the Canadian prairies it seems the whole season has shifted a month (give or take some time) toward spring. Longer falls and rougher weather lasting later into the spring.

When you think what an underocean earthquake can do the the oceans water temperature, and then what the el ninjo (however you spell it) does effecting north american coastal and ineterior weather systems. How could anything be constant/average or what ever.

Last year we had the warmest winter ever recorded.

My observations over the last 5 decades leads me to believe all global warming is really doing is creating more turbulent weather with greater extremes, or spans between supposed norms.

I wonder if prehistoric cave men, no relation to us of course, were complaining about global cooling???

What goes around comes around.

Up here, down here to you, the common saying these days is "it will be what it will be".

[Jim Michael]

Weather is a chaotic system in the mathematical sense and highly sensitive to small changes in initial conditions. Global changes in average temperature do not necessarily imply local changes of the same magnitude or direction. Wikipedia chaos theory for more background info.

Dale, I hope the mosquitos don't get an early start.

[Duncan Wilson]

Originally Posted by Greg Boston

Brian, we have to be careful here. There are 'heated' arguments both for and against the notion of global warming and DVINFO has a strict policy of neutrality.
-gb-

Greg

While there may be heated arguments over the causes of global warming, it is an observable fact that average global temperatures are currently increasing.

With all due respect, I can't see even the slightest hint of an attempt by Brian to start an argument, and if we can't report simple direct observations about the natural world here, there seems little point in having the ability to communicate.

As Jim so succinctly notes, the effects of global warming are not uniform or linear. Sadly, the Arctic appears to be disproportionately affected by rising temperatures and just last night the BBC reported on a new model, based on current shrinkage rates, predicting that summer ice in the Arctic will completely disappear in 13 years.

Duncan

[Brian McKay]

Good Morning:

I'm too old to argue anymore...simply put I'm always right!!!

Dale not on wildlife but on numerous occasions I have lectured on Engineering in a Perma-Frost environment at some of these sessions there were others doing presentations on northern wildlife so maybe our paths have crossed. Remember that super intelligent, handsome guy.......that wasn't me I was the other guy LOL.

Last evening I had the opportunity to ask one of the old guys in town, a guy that spent most of his life on the land hunting and fishing if he could remember a winter like this one. Surprise, surprise his responce yes many times over the past 50 years. His feeling is that the weather follows a cycle which in turn effects the cycle of the animals and on and on it goes. It made for an interesting conversation.

Chaotic is a great way of saying it Jim.....

Brian

[Pete Bauer]

Originally Posted by Duncan Wilson

With all due respect, I can't see even the slightest hint of an attempt by Brian to start an argument, and if we can't report simple direct observations about the natural world here, there seems little point in having the ability to communicate.

As we do at least daily on various threads, several of us moderators discussed this thread almost as soon as it appeared. Nobody thinks that Brian was trying to start an argument. Despite numerous instances in the past where "hot button" topics with nothing whatever to do with digital video spiraled rapidly out of control, we agreed to just to keep watch.

DVinfo is about Digital Video; this thread isn't. Nobody is preventing you guys from communicating about "religion, politics, race, sex, gender, lifestyle and other obviously sensitive topics" (as currently stated in the DVinfo Policy)...you just need to communicate about it at another site. To build on what Greg said, we aren't just neutral, we don't discuss those topics. That's DVinfo policy. If you want to discuss global warming, meet up at a site about global warming. While, yes, this thead has remained quite civilized so far, that can change in a heartbeat with such a politically charged topic.

We volunteer moderators spend an inordinate amount of our personal time keeping this site clean and on-topic. We do it because we value what Chris has built here. It is a lot better to simply enforce the existing policies than to let OT threads veer out of control and then have to clean up the mess.

My opinion is that today this is a pleasant but OT thread but by tomorrow it is as likely as not to turn ugly. In that light, I'm going to close it and leave it to Chris whether or not he is willing to re-open it.

PS: Brian, looks like for the second summer running, a research trip up to Nunavut country (Devon Island / Haughton Crater) is in the process of falling through. One of these days I hope to actually get up there. In the meantime, take lots of great video for us all!