How long until a 32 Gig P2 card? at DVinfo.net

Bill Edmunds · July 12th, 2006, 07:05 PM

Any "word on the street" as to when we'll be getting something of 32 Gig size (or bigger)?

Shane Ross · July 12th, 2006, 07:08 PM

Panasonic said that they estimate that they can double the size every year. So we have 8GB now...next summer they will have 16GB, then summer 2008 should be the target for 32GB.

Estimated.

Bill Edmunds · July 12th, 2006, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane Ross

Panasonic said that they estimate that they can double the size every year. So we have 8GB now...next summer they will have 16GB, then summer 2008 should be the target for 32GB.

Estimated.

Wow. Guess I'll wait a few years then!

Jeff Kilgroe · July 12th, 2006, 10:32 PM

While Panasonic has made no official announcements, they were hinting around NAB that 16GB cards will be out later this year. Honestly, I can't figure out why they're not available now, 4GB SD memory (even the zero-defect, super tested, high grade chips they claim to use in P2 cards) are now very commonly available.

As for the 32GB cards, who can say... It would take 8GB SD chips to create one and so far, 8GB chips have only been demonstrated at trade shows by a couple manufacturers. If I had to guess, I'll say we'll see 16GB cards this fall sometime and 32GB cards sometime next summer. But I've been wrong before...

Bob Zimmerman · July 13th, 2006, 02:22 AM

why can't they just make a 32g card? Is it some new science? Maybe they just want to nickel and dime everyone. Get your 8g card, now get your 16g card, then the 32,,,

Jeff Kilgroe · July 13th, 2006, 09:58 AM

I think there's a little bit of that philosophy involved. But with current P2 internal design, it revolves around 4 SD chips connected via a multichannel, interleaved memory controller (just like a RAID-0 disk stripe or multichannel RAM in your desktop computer). There currently is no option available for 8GB SD chips, which is what would be required to make a 32GB card... Sure, some 8 and 16 GB SD prototypes have been demoed at trade shows, but so far manufacturers like Samsung have not started actual production. We're limited to 4GB chips.

That being said, there is absolutely no reason why 16GB P2 cards are not available right now other than Panasonic trying to milk the 8GB P2 cow for all it's worth. Sales quantities on P2 cards are still relatively low compared to most memory card devices. There's a good bet that they had to commit to a certain amount of 8GB and 4GB card production in order to maintain their target price. Perhaps they're trying to exhaust some of that production supply before they jump onto a new production format. OTOH, changes from 8GB to 16GB could theoretically be made right on the assembly line with only a very minor firmware change and a substitution of 4GB SD chips for the 2GB ones. So I stand by what I've initially said... There's absolutely no reason why 16GB cards are not available now.

Ash Greyson · July 14th, 2006, 10:34 PM

P2 cards are not made from just any SD cards, they are the highest of high end and are much more expensive and have much smaller production runs.

The bigger part of the problem, is that they cant even keep up with demand for 8gb P2 cards at an INSANE price. Why would they even bother to release a 16gb card when all it would do is kill the market for a card they cant keep in stock?

I am an HVX owner and I do NOT like the P2 media. The price is artificially inflated for a destructive media that IMHO is doomed to be replaced in the near future... we'll see...

ash =o)

Bill Edmunds · July 15th, 2006, 05:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ash Greyson

The price is artificially inflated for a destructive media that IMHO is doomed to be replaced in the near future... we'll see...

"Destructive media"... what do you mean?

David Heath · July 15th, 2006, 05:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Edmunds

"Destructive media"... what do you mean?

I suspect that whilst the media itself does not destruct ("Mission Impossible" style) the system is only at all viable (at least for some) if the data is transferred from the cards soon after shooting for the cards to be erased and reused.

And .... do the SD cards used still have to be "the highest of high end" anymore? The "high end" of SD cards is now so much higher than it was at P2s conception (good enough for each to record video in its own right) that maybe the very best SD cards are no longer necessary?

My own speculation would be that the HVX200 is likely to be the first and last prosumer camera to use P2, future evolutions much more likely to be SD, maybe CF, based. P2 may last longer for future 2/3" models, but here the demand is more likely to be for many smaller cheaper cards than one expensive big one.

With five slots on the camera, 4 8GB cards is far more versatile than a single 32GB one. With the forthcoming AVC-Intra codec (50Mbs) that is about 80 minutes total run time for 5 8GB cards, and 16 minutes per card. That may be more than enough to record an interview etc on, which can then be fed or edited elsewhere whilst shooting continues on the remaining cards, a flexibility that putting all your eggs in the single 32GB card wouldn't allow.

Peter Jefferson · July 15th, 2006, 09:56 AM

more than likely, we'll see P2 remain, however teh codec used wont be as intense as DVCproHD
MP4 was he latest and greatest deal made between Sony and Pana, and both manufacturers have taken it on board.

IMO, i see HDV being "interim" formats until a standard (like DV) is taken onboard by everyone. I see M2t as being the chick u pick up after u get out of a long term relationship. Hot, sexy, does everything u wanted your ex to do, but has no real depth and u can easily see her flaws without looking too hard. Once teh excitement is gone, those flaws become apparent and eventually become the bane of your existance... until the new girl comes along who really wipes u off ur feet...
I like that analogy.. lol but its true... thats what HDV is at this time. DVCProHD, is like the girl u always wanted to have. Another hot and sexy number, but this girl is the shiznit.. the one that makes ur head turn and the one that all ur mates hate u for... U got her now though, and u can mess around with her and have some really REALLY good times with her, but her maintenance is just too much for u to hang onto. Shes obsessive.. requires much maintenance and always in need of attention...
How sustainable she is who knows, but for most of the DVX users out there who are wanting to upgrade, she isnt sustainable at all..

Ash Greyson · July 15th, 2006, 10:24 AM

Destructive means, it is not a master, just a temp storage. 32 minutes of temp storage for $2500+? Any money you save on buying tape is wasted on advanced back-up and the time to do so.

IMHO, better compression is for delivery and consumers. More compression means more issues in post, noise, artifacts, etc. I think the move in the professional realm will be toward uncompressed, just as photographers went to RAW. I personally have ZERO interest in acquisition in a more compressed format. We are just waiting for the storage tech to get cheaper, bigger and more robust.

ash =o)

Robert Lane · July 15th, 2006, 05:32 PM

Of course, nobody knows for certain one way or the other, but my 2 cents is that I seriously doubt the HVX is the first and last sub-$10k body to use P2. There's no way Panasonic would have invested the millions in creating the form factor only to abandon it in the next HVX-type iteration.

The P2 format itself certainly won't go away either, too much money in major players like Apple, Avid and others have been spent on making it part of the digi-workflow options, just as HDV has.

That other, equally robust, larger and more versatile media is on the horizon tells me that P2 may migrate to another medium for recording such as SD or CF (which would make sense since just about everybody has abandoned the PCMCIA interface), the P2 format won't go away anytime soon.

David Heath · July 15th, 2006, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Lane

..........P2 may migrate to another medium for recording such as SD or CF (which would make sense since just about everybody has abandoned the PCMCIA interface), the P2 format won't go away anytime soon.

Sorry Robert, I don't follow that, unless by reference to "P2" you are really meaning "recording of video onto solid state memory". Surely P2 IS defined by the PCMCIA interface, and is rival to SD or CF?

If you mean that recording of video onto solid state memory will tend to migrate onto SD or CF instead of P2, then I'd agree that seems likely, just as AVC based codecs are likely to oust HDV and DVCPRO HD in future equipment. Quite possibly the next generation.

Panasonic may not want to move away from P2, but if other manufacturers bring out product doing the same job much more cheaply using such as CF or SD, then sticking with P2 would put them at a huge market disadvantage unless the cost per GB of P2 can be brought down to match. I see it more likely they will just use the cheaper memory.

Chris Hurd · July 15th, 2006, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Heath

Surely P2... is rival to SD or CF?

P2 isn't rival to a Secure Digital card... P2 *is* a Secure Digital card. Four of them together, to be exact.

Currently neither a single SD card nor a single CF card can write 100mbps like P2 can.

I don't think AVC Intra will be an immediate replacement for P2 DVCPRO HD.

David Heath · July 15th, 2006, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Hurd

Four of them together, to be exact.

Together with extra electronics, a PCMCIA "wrapper", and ...... a big price premium! Just compare the difference in price between 4 2GB SD cards and a single 8GB P2 card.

Which is why I shall be very happy to see solid state video recording move onto SD/CF and P2 relegated to history.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Hurd

Currently neither a single SD card nor a single CF card can write 100mbps like P2 can.

Not true anymore. See http://www.sandisk.com/Products/Item...Flash_8GB.aspx . An 8GB CF with GUARANTEED read/write speeds of 20MBs - or 160Mbits/sec, well enough for DVCPRO HD, let alone the up and coming AVC formats.

July 12th, 2006, 07:05 PM	#1
Bill Edmunds Major Player Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Conway, NH Posts: 574	How long until a 32 Gig P2 card? Any "word on the street" as to when we'll be getting something of 32 Gig size (or bigger)?

July 12th, 2006, 10:32 PM	#4
Jeff Kilgroe Major Player Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Golden, CO Posts: 681	While Panasonic has made no official announcements, they were hinting around NAB that 16GB cards will be out later this year. Honestly, I can't figure out why they're not available now, 4GB SD memory (even the zero-defect, super tested, high grade chips they claim to use in P2 cards) are now very commonly available. As for the 32GB cards, who can say... It would take 8GB SD chips to create one and so far, 8GB chips have only been demonstrated at trade shows by a couple manufacturers. If I had to guess, I'll say we'll see 16GB cards this fall sometime and 32GB cards sometime next summer. But I've been wrong before... __________________ - Jeff Kilgroe - Applied Visual Technologies \| DarkScience - www.darkscience.com

July 13th, 2006, 09:58 AM	#6
Jeff Kilgroe Major Player Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Golden, CO Posts: 681	I think there's a little bit of that philosophy involved. But with current P2 internal design, it revolves around 4 SD chips connected via a multichannel, interleaved memory controller (just like a RAID-0 disk stripe or multichannel RAM in your desktop computer). There currently is no option available for 8GB SD chips, which is what would be required to make a 32GB card... Sure, some 8 and 16 GB SD prototypes have been demoed at trade shows, but so far manufacturers like Samsung have not started actual production. We're limited to 4GB chips. That being said, there is absolutely no reason why 16GB P2 cards are not available right now other than Panasonic trying to milk the 8GB P2 cow for all it's worth. Sales quantities on P2 cards are still relatively low compared to most memory card devices. There's a good bet that they had to commit to a certain amount of 8GB and 4GB card production in order to maintain their target price. Perhaps they're trying to exhaust some of that production supply before they jump onto a new production format. OTOH, changes from 8GB to 16GB could theoretically be made right on the assembly line with only a very minor firmware change and a substitution of 4GB SD chips for the 2GB ones. So I stand by what I've initially said... There's absolutely no reason why 16GB cards are not available now. __________________ - Jeff Kilgroe - Applied Visual Technologies \| DarkScience - www.darkscience.com

July 12th, 2006, 07:08 PM	#2
Shane Ross Major Player Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Los Angeles, USA Posts: 539	Panasonic said that they estimate that they can double the size every year. So we have 8GB now...next summer they will have 16GB, then summer 2008 should be the target for 32GB. Estimated.

July 13th, 2006, 02:22 AM	#5
Bob Zimmerman Major Player Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Illinois Posts: 888	why can't they just make a 32g card? Is it some new science? Maybe they just want to nickel and dime everyone. Get your 8g card, now get your 16g card, then the 32,,,

July 14th, 2006, 10:34 PM	#7
Ash Greyson Trustee Join Date: May 2003 Location: Tulsa, OK Posts: 1,689	P2 cards are not made from just any SD cards, they are the highest of high end and are much more expensive and have much smaller production runs. The bigger part of the problem, is that they cant even keep up with demand for 8gb P2 cards at an INSANE price. Why would they even bother to release a 16gb card when all it would do is kill the market for a card they cant keep in stock? I am an HVX owner and I do NOT like the P2 media. The price is artificially inflated for a destructive media that IMHO is doomed to be replaced in the near future... we'll see... ash =o)

July 15th, 2006, 09:56 AM	#10
Peter Jefferson Inner Circle Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Aus Posts: 3,884	more than likely, we'll see P2 remain, however teh codec used wont be as intense as DVCproHD MP4 was he latest and greatest deal made between Sony and Pana, and both manufacturers have taken it on board. IMO, i see HDV being "interim" formats until a standard (like DV) is taken onboard by everyone. I see M2t as being the chick u pick up after u get out of a long term relationship. Hot, sexy, does everything u wanted your ex to do, but has no real depth and u can easily see her flaws without looking too hard. Once teh excitement is gone, those flaws become apparent and eventually become the bane of your existance... until the new girl comes along who really wipes u off ur feet... I like that analogy.. lol but its true... thats what HDV is at this time. DVCProHD, is like the girl u always wanted to have. Another hot and sexy number, but this girl is the shiznit.. the one that makes ur head turn and the one that all ur mates hate u for... U got her now though, and u can mess around with her and have some really REALLY good times with her, but her maintenance is just too much for u to hang onto. Shes obsessive.. requires much maintenance and always in need of attention... How sustainable she is who knows, but for most of the DVX users out there who are wanting to upgrade, she isnt sustainable at all..

July 15th, 2006, 10:24 AM	#11
Ash Greyson Trustee Join Date: May 2003 Location: Tulsa, OK Posts: 1,689	Destructive means, it is not a master, just a temp storage. 32 minutes of temp storage for $2500+? Any money you save on buying tape is wasted on advanced back-up and the time to do so. IMHO, better compression is for delivery and consumers. More compression means more issues in post, noise, artifacts, etc. I think the move in the professional realm will be toward uncompressed, just as photographers went to RAW. I personally have ZERO interest in acquisition in a more compressed format. We are just waiting for the storage tech to get cheaper, bigger and more robust. ash =o)

July 15th, 2006, 05:32 PM	#12
Robert Lane Go Go Godzilla Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Scottsdale, AZ USA Posts: 2,823 Images: 15	Of course, nobody knows for certain one way or the other, but my 2 cents is that I seriously doubt the HVX is the first and last sub-$10k body to use P2. There's no way Panasonic would have invested the millions in creating the form factor only to abandon it in the next HVX-type iteration. The P2 format itself certainly won't go away either, too much money in major players like Apple, Avid and others have been spent on making it part of the digi-workflow options, just as HDV has. That other, equally robust, larger and more versatile media is on the horizon tells me that P2 may migrate to another medium for recording such as SD or CF (which would make sense since just about everybody has abandoned the PCMCIA interface), the P2 format won't go away anytime soon.