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December 23rd, 2005, 12:21 PM | #1 |
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HDTV proliferation
A new survey from Panasonic shows that one in every four U. S. households either own or plan to own an HDTV set by the end of 2006.
Link: http://www.digitalproducer.com/artic...e.jsp?id=36377 With the multiplication of HDTV channels and the penetration of HDTV into households, there will obviously be increased demand for HDTV content. Coupled with the release of the HVX200, good content producers now have 1) an increasing market for their HDTV programs 2) an affordable acquisition vehicle that produces footage that will probably be acceptable to most HDTV networks. 2006 is shaping up to be an interesting year, don't you think?!
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December 23rd, 2005, 01:05 PM | #2 |
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And when Sony launch the PS3 this year, that's going to put a lot of Blu Ray HD players into peoples homes too.
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December 23rd, 2005, 01:13 PM | #3 |
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The PS3 is going to be a Blu-Ray player???
- ShannonRawls.com
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December 23rd, 2005, 02:41 PM | #4 | |
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Microsoft had originally planned to use BluRay or HD-DVD with the XBOX360 (they had not committed to either format), but as the releases of the two new disc formats seem to keep getting perpetually delayed, Microsoft standardized on a DVD drive last spring. As of this time last year, we were being told that HD-DVD would be available 2nd qurter '05 and BluRay would be no later than end of 3rd quarter. Now we're looking at BluRay in about April (maybe) and HD-DVD at about the same time (maybe).
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December 23rd, 2005, 03:11 PM | #5 | |
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I'd also expect that by the end of 2006, most of the people who have been skeptical about investing in HD gear so far will have changed their tune. Look for a lot of used SD cameras up for sale next year... |
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December 23rd, 2005, 04:47 PM | #6 | |
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December 24th, 2005, 01:15 AM | #7 |
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in-stat market research predicts that 21% of all tv households will have at least one hdtv by the end of next year... but if you read your video business magazine, in-stat also sez "the intense media interest in next-generation optical disc formats is selling lots of magazines but will not have much impact on the hollywood "packaged goods" business until late in the decade."
as videographers, we need to be concerned about delivery formats, not tv sets, because nobody pays to watch content that they can't see. some of these dvinfo.net forums have gotten themselves all wrapped up in what amounts to a slowly fading business model, as evidenced by flat dvd sales growth, and a hollywood movie business that's been declining for the last three years in a row. meanwhile, a whole lot of advertising $$$ have been re-routed to alternative delivery methods over the internet, with things like cell phones also lurking on the horizon... all of that content can be handled with the sd cameras that we have in our possession right now, and there is money to be made in those markets. |
December 24th, 2005, 11:37 AM | #8 | ||||
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Why own a single-blade pocketknife when there are affordable multi-blade Swiss Army knives now available?
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December 24th, 2005, 03:23 PM | #9 | |
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you cannot project an hd dvd adoption rate based on what happened when sd dvd's took over for videotape, because it's two entirely different situations... i don't recall seeing in-stat or any media publication making any predictions of that nature, that might back up what you are saying. you also mis-interpreted what i said about dvd sales growth... yes, dvd player sales are flat, but what i was referring to are the sales of dvd discs, aka, hollywood packaged goods... that market is not expanding like it used to, because people are moving to other forms of media consumption... which is why it's the delivery formats that we need to be concerned with, not hdtv's. the percentage of people on dvinfo.net who are working in the tv business will be very minor compared to the overall videographer population out here, so the vast majority of us will not benefit from new formats like hdv, until there is a delivery method for the format. talking about hdtv penetration is not really relevant... what we need to know is what the delivery format is, and when it will reach critical mass... and we should not be ignoring alternative delivery formats. |
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December 25th, 2005, 10:07 PM | #10 |
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The build will be slow as the industry begins to educate people and phase out SD... and by slow I mean a decade... I think in 5 years we will be in a place to start delivering HD en masse, then it will beging to catch on as the cost of the players, monitors and media approach the price of similar SD equipment.
Remember that of the 20%-25% of people expected to have an HDTV by next year most all of those will be middle to higher income people getting TVs 42" or larger. MOST people have a 32" SD set or smaller and will not upgrade until they can get a similar size for the same money... many people do not have space for a big TV. It is also worth noting that TV, VHS, DVD, etc. etc. etc. really needs to bust the $300 mark to begin really taking off. For HDTV I think it will be $499...and not a penny more. Then you have the question... does HD really benefit a TV under 42" for average Joe? The other thing people fail to realize is that right now, as evidenced in an article I linked in another thread, only HALF the people who own an HDTV have even seen a frame of HD on it! And half that havent... THINK THEY HAVE!!! Most people have yet to see a good digital SD signal... HD is happening but slower than most on the bleeding edge seem to think... ash =o) |
December 25th, 2005, 10:11 PM | #11 |
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Listen to Dan... CONVENIENCE is dominating the market place... MP3s are compressed and dont sound NEAR as good as SACD or DVD-A...heck even as CDs for that matter but the consumer has spoken LOUD AND CLEAR that MP3 is "good enough" and much more convenient. Anyone wanna bet me that more people will be watching video from Ipod type devices and cell phones than from ALL HD sources combined for the next few years and beyond?
ash =o) |
December 25th, 2005, 11:52 PM | #12 |
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"A new survey from Panasonic shows that one in every four U. S. households either own or plan to own an HDTV set by the end of 2006."
I guess Panasonic hasn't seen actual numbers reported by the folks that sell TVs, but if Panasonic says such a ting, it's a great marketing scheme to get folks to buy their TVs. |
December 25th, 2005, 11:53 PM | #13 |
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As videographers the pertinent question isn't what delivery formats will be popular, it's about acquisition. If you want to be sure to be able to meet the needs of all potential customers, it's a given that sooner or later you're going to want to have the capability to record in HD. Once you have that capability any concerns about adoption rate statistics become secondary, since the best customers will expect HD acquisition regardless of the intended primary output. That's where the statistics are misleading, because what percentage of people own HDTVs won't be what determines the percentage of video projects shot in HD.
SD will be relevant for a long time for delivery purposes, but it's relevance for acquisition could drop off quickly in the next couple of years or so. |
December 26th, 2005, 04:56 AM | #14 |
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No way ...
... will 20% or even 10% of households in the US have an HDTV set by end of 2006. I doubt that 10% of US households could even tell you what HDTV was by end of 2006 -- it is dreaming in technicolor to believe otherwise, IMHO.
The survey referenced spoke to 1,000 people in a nation of 300,000,000 ... and tossed in the softball and ultimately meaningless option 'planned to own' -- what does that mean? I might plan to own one by year end, but not get around to buying until 2010, I guess! HDTV might be a real market, and even a significant one sometime soon -- but it won't be found in 20% of households before the next decade. JMHO |
December 26th, 2005, 08:37 AM | #15 |
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It’s gonnna be at least 10 - 15 years before HDTV really begins to creep onto the market. I know people who are JUST NOW getting DVD players, and VHS has just started to be phased out by retailers and distributors. And then there is the issue of benefit. DVD had a substantial benefit over VHS which HD DVDs will not have over DVDs. A realistic image of the video market is not to be had at the most expensive section of Best Buy, it's to be had at the sale section of WalMart. When HDTV sets are going for $299.00, and HD DVD players are going for $150.00, then things will just be BEGINNING to roll for HDTV.
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