HVX200 Pricing Speculation

Lawrence Bansbach · March 10th, 2005, 02:28 PM

I don't know where the 4-minute duration figure is coming from. DV, at 25 Mbps, records 60 minutes on 11.25 GB. A little arithmetic yields a duration of 5 minutes and 20 seconds for 100 Mbps and 4 GB. But that's assuming that DVCPRO HD records the full 100 Mbps at all frame rates on P2 cards as it does on tape. However, if it records only 40 Mbps for 24p, then the duration is 2.5 times as great, or 13 minutes and 20 seconds. This is just a roundabout way of saying that we just don't know yet and should wait until we hear the facts.

Chris Hurd · March 10th, 2005, 03:30 PM

Good points, Lawrence, and besides, I doubt anyone is going to limit their recording to a single 4GB P2 card anyway. Most likely the P2 arrays most commonly used will be 8GB, 16GB and 32GB. Besides, the camera will have two slots, for two cards, so if you're stuck with just a pair of 4GB P2 cards it's still not all that bad.

Bill Ravens · March 10th, 2005, 04:51 PM

c'mon, you guys! how often do you replace your hardware? if the answer is once every 3 years(way past the technical obsolesence limit, which is about 1-2 years) and you drop $3k-$3.5k on an upgrade, you can afford one of these cams every 9 years instead of every 3 years. Simple math.

Michael Struthers · March 10th, 2005, 07:51 PM

I'm saying it will be $4,995.00 without cards. They have to match the Sony's price, no question.

Luis Caffesse · March 10th, 2005, 11:58 PM

"They have to match the Sony's price, no question."

I would say there is definitely a question.
I don't see why they would have to match the price of the Z1 at all.

The Z1 shoots HDV and DV to tape, both to 25mbps (if I'm not mistaken). The Z1 does not have true 24fps progressive shooting.

The new Panasonic camera will shoot various formats of larger bitrates and color sampling levels. It will also include true progressive 24fps shooting.

On top of that, it includes solid state recording which, whether or not everyone agrees, is quite an advancement.

I think all these things point towards a camera that will cost a bit more than a Z1.

Now, if they want to really grab some market share, hopefully they WILL price it at the Z1 level. But I for one won't be suprised to see this cam at the 6 to 7 thousand range, which I think is completely justifiable.

Hopefully I'm wrong. Lord knows it won't be the first time.

Chris Hurd · March 11th, 2005, 12:08 AM

It might hinge on whether or not a P2 card is included. Even if it's just a "starter" 4GB card, you know like a digital still camera, you usually get a low-capacity memory card with it so you can start shooting right away.

There might even be some options on top of baseline pricing, such as the camera with no card, or the camera with one 4GB card, or the camera with one 8GB card and so on. With a pair of 8GB P2 cards, you've got 18 minutes of DVCPro HD, about 36 minutes of DVCPro 50, and well over an hour of DVCPro.

Bill Ravens · March 11th, 2005, 07:43 AM

I wish one of these OEM's would provide a camera with re-programmable firmware, much like the photo cams. At least, for this kind of purchase price, the camera might not get obsolete as fast. Once the purchase price goes up over $4K, it really does get more difficult for a small business to keep upgrading every time the technology takes a leap.

Luis Caffesse · March 11th, 2005, 07:51 AM

"I wish one of these OEM's would provide a camera with re-programmable firmware"

It's only a matter of time before we start seeing things moving in that direction, and the move to solid state (or hard drive recording) is the first step. Reprogrammable firmware is virtually impossible to take utilize when a camera is tied to the mechanics of a tape transport.

Once we get rid of tape and moving parts, these cameras will function much more like the photo cams.
That's my view anyhow.

Regardless, the entry price will go up at first for new technology.

Lawrence Bansbach · March 11th, 2005, 08:00 AM

<<<-- Originally posted by Chris Hurd : With a pair of 8GB P2 cards, you've got 18 minutes of DVCPro HD, about 36 minutes of DVCPro 50, and well over an hour of DVCPro. -->>>

Actually, it should be over 20 minutes (21 min 20 sec) of DVCPro HD at 60 fps. If the 24p data rate is reduced to 40 Mbps (which is not certain), the duration should be more like 53 minutes. The prices and capacities of P2 cards at release of the HDX100 are unknown, but I am confident that Panasonic knows that to make P2 a viable medium for prosumer products, prices must drop and capacities rise -- but "more for less" is the general trend in electronic commodities anyway.

Thomas Smet · March 11th, 2005, 10:50 AM

Has anybody looked at the specs on the Panasonic site to see how the current P2 cameras work?

I took a look the other day and it seems the SDX800 has a USB2 port so you can hook the camera up to a computer and then camera (with the P2 cards inside) will then act exactly like a hard drive for your system. You could even edit your footage right from the camera since the bandwidth is more than fast enough.

I am not sure is the camera will ouput live from USB2 but that may be one solution to not even using P2 cards.

Also to add to the person that talked about having a hard drive with a p2 connector I think as soon as this camera comes out there will be people trying to make such devices. Other devices should work as well.

On the Panasonic site they have a P2 adapter for the SDX800 that gives you a wireless network feed for proxy video from the camera. Clearly a wireless network isn't fast enough for even dv material let alone HD but what about a P2 gigabit network adapter. Such as the ones for laptops.

I guess it all depends on how much Panasonic has limited the P2 slot. If they left it fairly open there should be a way to trick the camera into thinking it is shooting on a much larger P2 card.

The one thing that kind of scares me about P2 cards right now is having backup for shooting. What I am talking about is card failure. If you buy 2 cards and 1 or both of them break or stop working you are kind of screwed. With tapes we could have dozens of them around just in case. This means for serious shooters you will need at least 4 P2 cards to have backup in case of a problem.

Simon Wyndham · March 14th, 2005, 07:44 AM

As I've said before I love the idea of P2, but it's not ready for the masses yet.

However you can bet your bottom dollar that if Panny release the camera with a low capacity 4gb card included that the 'dream' will take over some people. You can guarantee someone who REALLY wants to make a high def feature will take that 4gb card and a laptop and do whatever they need to do with it to get the footage they need.

I just wish people would let things hapen as they happen. Whatever Panasonic do they will do.

I do wonder what the really high end developments have in store. Consumers are always a step behind, so I don't think it will be long until much higher res high end formats become available as CMOS sensors etc start to replace CCD's.

Jesse Bekas · March 14th, 2005, 09:35 AM

<<<-- I do wonder what the really high end developments have in store. Consumers are always a step behind, so I don't think it will be long until much higher res high end formats become available as CMOS sensors etc start to replace CCD's. -->>>

Yup, the high-end will probably be seeing more Genesis style cams.

Also, I don't think Panasonic intends the P2 system to be "for the masses" yet anyway.

Simon Wyndham · March 14th, 2005, 10:22 AM

Exactly. Here's my theory. High def is really in it's infancy. Yes I know it's been around since the 80's, but it was experimental then and it has certainly not been around anywhere near as long as SD. HD is still looked upon with suspicion by some high end guys, with the use of it in programmes like The West Wing comparing it to S16mm rather than 35mm.

My theory is that once HD matures and digital end to end production becomes totally standard in the feature film industry much higher res cameras will be available to that sector. The result being that we will be back to square one LOL! What we have as HD now will be considered SD compared to new cinema picture developments.

LOL, maybe this is what is fuelling people like Sony to make low end HD models. Perhaps they are developing something much better for their higher end market. Who knows.

My hope for a high def future is that 35mm cameras come down in price and 35mm film can be obtained for very low prices. Then I can shoot high def with all the latitude of film ;-)

Michael Struthers · March 14th, 2005, 07:51 PM

The new super16mm stocks are, imo, great looking. I'd still take super16mm over HD. HD is putting pricing pressure on film and digital intermediates, which is good too.

HD is good for interior dramas, where it's weaknesses are not so readily apparent. I haven't really seen an HD film that looked as good as a 35mm film.

Lebroz James · March 20th, 2005, 07:58 PM

ARE SOME OF YOU SERIOUS?

gonna pay $9000 plus for a 1/3 3ccd cam?

honest pana is pretty fair about priceing unless some of you shmucks actually convince them they can charge double and still make sales(hey sony does it)

it will be under $4999 street and maybe special package with hard drive/big p2 card for the $6000-$9999 range

I dont work for Panasonic but i should.. L.J.

I'm liking the JVC, Matsushita is really going after all of us (looking foe prosumer gear)

March 10th, 2005, 03:30 PM	#47
Chris Hurd Obstreperous Rex Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: San Marcos, TX Posts: 27,368 Images: 513	Good points, Lawrence, and besides, I doubt anyone is going to limit their recording to a single 4GB P2 card anyway. Most likely the P2 arrays most commonly used will be 8GB, 16GB and 32GB. Besides, the camera will have two slots, for two cards, so if you're stuck with just a pair of 4GB P2 cards it's still not all that bad. __________________ CH Search DV Info Net \| 20 years of DVi \| ...Tuesday is Soylent Green Day!

March 10th, 2005, 07:51 PM	#49
Michael Struthers Major Player Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: SF, Ca Posts: 421	I'm saying it will be $4,995.00 without cards. They have to match the Sony's price, no question. __________________ Michael Struthers www.buzzdigital.com

March 10th, 2005, 11:58 PM	#50
Luis Caffesse Major Player Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Austin, Texas Posts: 704	"They have to match the Sony's price, no question." I would say there is definitely a question. I don't see why they would have to match the price of the Z1 at all. The Z1 shoots HDV and DV to tape, both to 25mbps (if I'm not mistaken). The Z1 does not have true 24fps progressive shooting. The new Panasonic camera will shoot various formats of larger bitrates and color sampling levels. It will also include true progressive 24fps shooting. On top of that, it includes solid state recording which, whether or not everyone agrees, is quite an advancement. I think all these things point towards a camera that will cost a bit more than a Z1. Now, if they want to really grab some market share, hopefully they WILL price it at the Z1 level. But I for one won't be suprised to see this cam at the 6 to 7 thousand range, which I think is completely justifiable. Hopefully I'm wrong. Lord knows it won't be the first time. __________________ Luis Caffesse Pitch Productions Austin, Texas

March 11th, 2005, 12:08 AM	#51
Chris Hurd Obstreperous Rex Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: San Marcos, TX Posts: 27,368 Images: 513	It might hinge on whether or not a P2 card is included. Even if it's just a "starter" 4GB card, you know like a digital still camera, you usually get a low-capacity memory card with it so you can start shooting right away. There might even be some options on top of baseline pricing, such as the camera with no card, or the camera with one 4GB card, or the camera with one 8GB card and so on. With a pair of 8GB P2 cards, you've got 18 minutes of DVCPro HD, about 36 minutes of DVCPro 50, and well over an hour of DVCPro. __________________ CH Search DV Info Net \| 20 years of DVi \| ...Tuesday is Soylent Green Day!

March 11th, 2005, 07:51 AM	#53
Luis Caffesse Major Player Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Austin, Texas Posts: 704	"I wish one of these OEM's would provide a camera with re-programmable firmware" It's only a matter of time before we start seeing things moving in that direction, and the move to solid state (or hard drive recording) is the first step. Reprogrammable firmware is virtually impossible to take utilize when a camera is tied to the mechanics of a tape transport. Once we get rid of tape and moving parts, these cameras will function much more like the photo cams. That's my view anyhow. Regardless, the entry price will go up at first for new technology. __________________ Luis Caffesse Pitch Productions Austin, Texas

March 10th, 2005, 02:28 PM	#46
Lawrence Bansbach Major Player Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 295	I don't know where the 4-minute duration figure is coming from. DV, at 25 Mbps, records 60 minutes on 11.25 GB. A little arithmetic yields a duration of 5 minutes and 20 seconds for 100 Mbps and 4 GB. But that's assuming that DVCPRO HD records the full 100 Mbps at all frame rates on P2 cards as it does on tape. However, if it records only 40 Mbps for 24p, then the duration is 2.5 times as great, or 13 minutes and 20 seconds. This is just a roundabout way of saying that we just don't know yet and should wait until we hear the facts.

March 10th, 2005, 04:51 PM	#48
Bill Ravens Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: santa fe, nm Posts: 3,264 Images: 10	c'mon, you guys! how often do you replace your hardware? if the answer is once every 3 years(way past the technical obsolesence limit, which is about 1-2 years) and you drop $3k-$3.5k on an upgrade, you can afford one of these cams every 9 years instead of every 3 years. Simple math.

March 11th, 2005, 07:43 AM	#52
Bill Ravens Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: santa fe, nm Posts: 3,264 Images: 10	I wish one of these OEM's would provide a camera with re-programmable firmware, much like the photo cams. At least, for this kind of purchase price, the camera might not get obsolete as fast. Once the purchase price goes up over $4K, it really does get more difficult for a small business to keep upgrading every time the technology takes a leap.

March 11th, 2005, 08:00 AM	#54
Lawrence Bansbach Major Player Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 295	<<<-- Originally posted by Chris Hurd : With a pair of 8GB P2 cards, you've got 18 minutes of DVCPro HD, about 36 minutes of DVCPro 50, and well over an hour of DVCPro. -->>> Actually, it should be over 20 minutes (21 min 20 sec) of DVCPro HD at 60 fps. If the 24p data rate is reduced to 40 Mbps (which is not certain), the duration should be more like 53 minutes. The prices and capacities of P2 cards at release of the HDX100 are unknown, but I am confident that Panasonic knows that to make P2 a viable medium for prosumer products, prices must drop and capacities rise -- but "more for less" is the general trend in electronic commodities anyway.

March 11th, 2005, 10:50 AM	#55
Thomas Smet Trustee Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Milwaukee, WI Posts: 1,719	Has anybody looked at the specs on the Panasonic site to see how the current P2 cameras work? I took a look the other day and it seems the SDX800 has a USB2 port so you can hook the camera up to a computer and then camera (with the P2 cards inside) will then act exactly like a hard drive for your system. You could even edit your footage right from the camera since the bandwidth is more than fast enough. I am not sure is the camera will ouput live from USB2 but that may be one solution to not even using P2 cards. Also to add to the person that talked about having a hard drive with a p2 connector I think as soon as this camera comes out there will be people trying to make such devices. Other devices should work as well. On the Panasonic site they have a P2 adapter for the SDX800 that gives you a wireless network feed for proxy video from the camera. Clearly a wireless network isn't fast enough for even dv material let alone HD but what about a P2 gigabit network adapter. Such as the ones for laptops. I guess it all depends on how much Panasonic has limited the P2 slot. If they left it fairly open there should be a way to trick the camera into thinking it is shooting on a much larger P2 card. The one thing that kind of scares me about P2 cards right now is having backup for shooting. What I am talking about is card failure. If you buy 2 cards and 1 or both of them break or stop working you are kind of screwed. With tapes we could have dozens of them around just in case. This means for serious shooters you will need at least 4 P2 cards to have backup in case of a problem.

March 14th, 2005, 07:44 AM	#56
Simon Wyndham Trustee Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Malvern UK Posts: 1,931	As I've said before I love the idea of P2, but it's not ready for the masses yet. However you can bet your bottom dollar that if Panny release the camera with a low capacity 4gb card included that the 'dream' will take over some people. You can guarantee someone who REALLY wants to make a high def feature will take that 4gb card and a laptop and do whatever they need to do with it to get the footage they need. I just wish people would let things hapen as they happen. Whatever Panasonic do they will do. I do wonder what the really high end developments have in store. Consumers are always a step behind, so I don't think it will be long until much higher res high end formats become available as CMOS sensors etc start to replace CCD's.

March 14th, 2005, 09:35 AM	#57
Jesse Bekas Major Player Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Ridgefield Park, New Jersey, USA Posts: 572	<<<-- I do wonder what the really high end developments have in store. Consumers are always a step behind, so I don't think it will be long until much higher res high end formats become available as CMOS sensors etc start to replace CCD's. -->>> Yup, the high-end will probably be seeing more Genesis style cams. Also, I don't think Panasonic intends the P2 system to be "for the masses" yet anyway.

March 14th, 2005, 10:22 AM	#58
Simon Wyndham Trustee Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Malvern UK Posts: 1,931	Exactly. Here's my theory. High def is really in it's infancy. Yes I know it's been around since the 80's, but it was experimental then and it has certainly not been around anywhere near as long as SD. HD is still looked upon with suspicion by some high end guys, with the use of it in programmes like The West Wing comparing it to S16mm rather than 35mm. My theory is that once HD matures and digital end to end production becomes totally standard in the feature film industry much higher res cameras will be available to that sector. The result being that we will be back to square one LOL! What we have as HD now will be considered SD compared to new cinema picture developments. LOL, maybe this is what is fuelling people like Sony to make low end HD models. Perhaps they are developing something much better for their higher end market. Who knows. My hope for a high def future is that 35mm cameras come down in price and 35mm film can be obtained for very low prices. Then I can shoot high def with all the latitude of film ;-)

March 14th, 2005, 07:51 PM	#59
Michael Struthers Major Player Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: SF, Ca Posts: 421	The new super16mm stocks are, imo, great looking. I'd still take super16mm over HD. HD is putting pricing pressure on film and digital intermediates, which is good too. HD is good for interior dramas, where it's weaknesses are not so readily apparent. I haven't really seen an HD film that looked as good as a 35mm film. __________________ Michael Struthers www.buzzdigital.com

March 20th, 2005, 07:58 PM	#60
Lebroz James New Boot Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Brookyn New York Posts: 13	? ARE SOME OF YOU SERIOUS? ARE SOME OF YOU SERIOUS? gonna pay $9000 plus for a 1/3 3ccd cam? honest pana is pretty fair about priceing unless some of you shmucks actually convince them they can charge double and still make sales(hey sony does it) it will be under $4999 street and maybe special package with hard drive/big p2 card for the $6000-$9999 range I dont work for Panasonic but i should.. L.J. I'm liking the JVC, Matsushita is really going after all of us (looking foe prosumer gear)