I think CANON HDV will be here sooner then later...

[Barry Green]

Canon bought the chips for the XL1 from Panasonic, but I don't think the XL2 chips come from Panasonic. Don't know for sure though.

Regarding an HD XL3 -- the challenge I see there is not the chips, but the lenses. The current lenses are designed around standard-def. Are they really actually good enough to support high-def resolution? If so, then great -- but if not, what do they do? Release an XL3 camera and change the lens mount (infuriating those who bought a variety of XL lenses?) Release an XL3 camera and not change the lens mount, which would just lead to people using SD lenses on their HD camcorder, getting sub-standard results and then complaining all across the web about how their new HD camera is "no good"?

Seems like a lose-lose proposition for Canon. Not to mention that there aren't any affordable interchangeable HD lenses out there.

I think JVC's likely going to trump Canon on this -- they're offering a 24P HDV camera with interchangeable lenses, and it looks an awful lot like an XL2 merged with a Z1. As long as the XL2's lenses/accessories aren't likely going to be compatible with an HD XL3, (and the VF and lenses probably *wouldn't* be compatible), what incentive would someone have to wait two or three years for Canon, when JVC will have their version on the market in three or four months?

That's why I think Canon's entry will be an HDV GL3.

Who knows, Canon may surprise us, but I think there are issues that there are no easy answers to (like the lenses) and therefore it'll likely be a while before there's an HD XL3.

[Michael Struthers]

Canon's stuck. They were late to the game with XL2, and now if they were to pop out a new cam the sales of the XL2 might crumble.

If they're even selling many at all.

Canon needs a "high=end" line, keep the xl2 for the "prosumers".
With their "high-end" line, they could do what they wanted. However, they like to make lenses, and I don't see any from them.

I'm sure they are having this argument internally almost every day, poor bastards *L*

[Steven White]

An economist would say that the R&D and development of the XL2 is sunk cost. Canon should be focussed on their next product regardless of XL2 sales, and should be looking to produce the best product and the best sales they can.

Saying "oh no! Our XL2 was too little too late. Oh well, we don't want to introduce another of our products that will cripple its sales... we'll just let the other companies do that" is foolish.

I'm sure they'll release the best product they can when its ready. HDV has been around a long time with the JVC offering, and the FX1/Z1U offerings have probably kickstarted the market handily for another product.

[Dylan Couper]

Regarding lenses....

Here's something to drool over...
(pure fantasy by the way, I'm making this up)

Wouldn't it be spiffy if the HD-XL3 ditched the XL mount and instead incorporated a mini35 style adapter that let you use Canon EF lenses without any magnification factor?

That would be a trump card.

[Aaron Koolen]

<<<-- Originally posted by Steven White : An economist would say that the
Saying "oh no! Our XL2 was too little too late. Oh well, we don't want to introduce another of our products that will cripple its sales... we'll just let the other companies do that" is foolish.
-->>>

But Canon are foolish. They don't have that "ground breaking" attitude. They are scared when it comes to releasing cameras and prefer to see that things are working well for a wee while before committing. I'm sure they are onto the HDV thing, but maybe in a year at the earliest. It seems, being late to the game is not somethnig Canon cares about - at all. And when they do come, they won't are what people are calling for, they'll just do whatever they want.

[Shannon Rawls]

Last I checked, the MIGHTY CANON XL-1/XL-1s MINIDV CAMERA was a pioneer, trendsetting, and powerful camera that pretty much defined Digital Video for prosumers and has outsold any other camera in its class worldwide.

<<<-- Originally posted by Aaron Koolen :
They are scared when it comes to releasing cameras. It seems, being late to the game is not somethnig Canon cares about - at all.
-->>>

So now Aaron,

I'm just curious. What type of camera(s) has Canon been "Scared" about releasing in their history of Digital Video?

Moreover, knowing that Canon was "Early" and "First" with removable lenses, please tell me.....what has Canon been "Late" about that ohhh, let's say JVC has been "Early" on? or that Sony has been "Early" on??


- Shannon W. Rawls

[Robin Davies-Rollinson]

I tend to agree with Dylan regarding Canon bringing out a HDV- XM3, rather than build on the XL series.
It might pay them to stick to the consumer label and produce a rather more introductory type model than the FX1 to appeal to the many potential buyers who just can't see the Sony as being "consumer".
I somehow can't imagine that many people going to a Dixons store, (UK chain of camera shops as an example) picking up the FX1 and feeling comfortable with it - it's just not that type of camera, especially with more buttons and controls than you can shake a stick at; whereas, since Canon, who have a good sense of what new buyers require - with smaller form factors and easy controls - might consider a small HDV camera as ideally filling a gap in a growing market.

Robin

[Barry Green]

what has Canon been "Late" about that ohhh, let's say JVC has been "Early" on? or that Sony has been "Early" on??

You're kidding, right?

Canon doesn't innovate when it comes to DV cameras. The first XL1 was a repackaged Panasonic chipset. They added interchangeable lenses, yes, but that was about the extent of its "revolution".

Whereas JVC, love 'em or hate 'em, they're innovators. They introduced locked audio to the DV spec (not DVCAM, but to regular DV) with their DV500 and DV5000. They invented digital betacam-caliber quality with Digital-S (aka DVCPRO50 or D-9). They brought out the first consumer high-def camera, almost two years before Sony brought out theirs. They had their camera out before there even WAS an HDV standard. They didn't wait for someone to settle on a standard, they had it on the market for six months prior to their even being an announcement about HDV. And now they're extending the format with 24p and with higher-bitrate versions. They brought out (if not the first, one of the first) integrated hard disk recording systems. They brought out the first (and only) consumer HD recording system, D-VHS.

And Sony -- love 'em or hate 'em, Sony's innovating all the time. They brought out the first DV camera, the first usable HDV camera. Sony's probably been responsible for more failed formats than all the other manufacturers put together, and they're responsible for many of the most popular and successful formats too. But that's what they say about pioneers -- you can tell the pioneers by the number of arrows in their back.

Canon, by contrast, has innovated -- well, hold on, I'm thinking here... um... well, okay, they DID bring out the first progressive-scan 30p cameras, the Elura and Z1 (it was the Z1, wasn't it?) And the XL1 was the first DV camera with interchangeable lenses and viewfinder. Not bad, but hardly a resume of innovation that compares with JVC's and Sony's. When JVC made an interchangeable-lens DV camera, they also gave it 1/2" chips and made it compatible with the industry-standard 1/2" lens mount.

I'm not knocking Canon at all, but just pointing out what's already well-known and well-established: Canon does not lead the pack (in consumer video). They stay well at the back and wait until all other manufacturers have played their cards, before entering the game. JVC has been rampantly inventive, followed closely by Sony.

[Aaron Koolen]

<<<-- Originally posted by Shannon Rawls :
So now Aaron,

I'm just curious. What type of camera(s) has Canon been "Scared" about releasing in their history of Digital Video?

Moreover, knowing that Canon was "Early" and "First" with removable lenses, please tell me.....what has Canon been "Late" about that ohhh, let's say JVC has been "Early" on? or that Sony has been "Early" on??
- Shannon W. Rawls -->>>

Shannon, it's simple mate. The Xl2 wasn't HDV. I mean they are part of the HDV consortium. They would have known or at least expected Sony to be working on one. JVC already had one, and look what Canon come out with - another SD camera. That is what I call scared. Even in interviews with Canon reps they state that they want to see how HDV goes before committing and they say that that's just how they work.

They did a great thing with the XL series interchangeable lenses, I will give them that - and it's understandable, they are great lens makers so they can feel a little more comfortable in pushing the envelope in that area and also leveraging adapters for their other lenses etc. But as far as most other things have gone, they tend to hold back a bit. How long was it from the DVX to the XL2? 2 years? I mean, that's damned slow. Sure they added 16:9 on small chips but they were damned slow to compete with it. They still stuck with no real manual lens, no line level input on XLR etc. Things that I would have thought, and almost assumed they'd at least put in - so on those things, they didn't even gain parity with the DVX, let alone innovate.

I love companies that risk - that offer us, consumers things we want, without having to have some proven sales record before doing it. I commend Panasonic on their risk with the DVX and it paid off really well for them. As much as I'd love a camera with the shape of the Xl series, I will probably become a Pansonic man from now on when my XM2 dies and I need another cam. I admire them.

Aaron

[Shannon Rawls]

Barry & Aaron...I have read everything both you have said...word for word...

I still can't seem to see what Canon has been "LATE" on... please understand my question... "LATE" "LATE" "LATE" as in "TARDY" as in "NOT ON TIME!"

Who said anything about being 'innovators'? I never asked what did JVC and Sony 'invent' that Canon did not.

The XL2 was not HDV...so that makes them LATE??? you are kidding me, right?

Again....understanding Canons history....people keep calling them LATE and TOO SLOW and missing the race and all that. Yet Canon holds sway the gheart of indie filmmakers with their MIGHTY XL1 which was the #1 indie/shooter camera for YEARS!! So how is it that the LATE people end up with the most popular DV camera of all time?? Simply because they take their time? Seems to me if that's what you call late...hell, late is GOOD!

Boy Bull (other camera companies):
"Hey dad, why dont we run down the hill and f*ck one of those cows??"
Papa Bull (Canon):
"No son....let's walk down and f*ck 'em all!"

- Shannon W. Rawls

[Kurth Bousman]

The two thing canons' got going for it- one it's probably tied w/ sony for selling consumer dv cameras and second , and most important , it's totally controlling the digital still camera market. This gives them a big cushion. They probably aren't that interested in setting trends with the xl cameras. They can afford to let the dust settle 'cause they're still making a kiling on their 20d and rebel slrs'. The market for the xl series is probably tiny in comparison. So they're probably laughing all the way to the bank. I would agree that a hdv gl3 is much more probable- of course that would rule out any progressive capturing- it'll protect their xl market and still compete with the sonys'- kurth

[Barry Green]

Okay, I see the difference in what you're saying, and I guess if you want to apply "late" as being "missing their window", then no, they haven't necessarily been late.

However, I wonder about the claim that the XL1 is the most popular DV camera of all time. I'd take a wild guess and say that Sony probably sold 5 to 10 times as many VX2000's and PD150's as Canon sold XL1s. The indie filmmaking community gravitated towards the XL1, but overall in the market, I'm sure the VX2000/PD150 has got to be the record holder for most-bought model.

The perception about Canon being late comes from the fact that in 1997, they introduced the XL1, and people immediately began speculating about the XL2. It didn't show up at NAB 1998. It didn't show up at NAB 1999. It didn't even show up at NAB 2000. Sony introduced the VX2000 and PD150, and Canon didn't respond. Finally, they released the XL1s -- with no major changes! So people REALLY got frothy for the XL2. In 2001, no XL2. In 2002, Panasonic put out the DVX, and still no XL2. In 2003, JVC put out high-def, and Panasonic released the DVX100A, and there was still no XL2. Canon showed up to trade shows still pitching the XL1s. It was sad, really. At DV Expo in 2003, the Panasonic and JVC booths were jam-packed, and Canon's was literally deserted. Everybody consoled themselves with the idea that when the XL2 came, it was going to blow us all away, and the key factor in the delay was that it was going to be high-def. After all, the HDV spec had been released in 2003, and it was already 2004, and Canon was a main underwriter of HDV...

Finally, in 2004, Canon released the XL2. With no HDV. Many people proclaimed it too little, too late. And two weeks later, Sony announced the FX1. And now, in 2005, Panasonic and JVC have both announced 24P HD cameras coming, and JVC is even extending the HD standard to include 24p. And not a word from Canon yet about their first HD model, or even a followup to the GL2. They're still selling the GL2 as a current model! The GL2 was introduced three years ago.

Whether you can consider them "late" or not is I guess a matter of opinion, but you certainly can't say that they're early or ahead of the game. They are very slow to introduce new models.

[Michael Struthers]

Canon's a little behind, but it's not too late. It's quite possible Canon corporate doesn't see high dv cams as a big profit center. So, development gets pushed of the bottom of the corporate "to do" pile.

But even if it just means reputation, Canon is lagging. I think if they can get a cam out by the time Panny releases theirs, they might stay in the game. Make it a single chip 2/3 24p 72060p cam, and they can stay in the game.

[Bob Zimmerman]

The company that puts out a native 16:9, 24p HD under $5,000 will be the big dog. Sure some will drop more, but not big sales. Sure there are TV networks, big production houses and Shannon Rawls who will pay top dollar, but alot more smaller companies and indie makers out there who can't drop $10,000 for a camera, $1,000's for cards and computer upgrades.

Maybe Panasonic will do it,,,I guess will find out in a few weeks.

[Aaron Koolen]

Yeah, maybe they can give a cheaper version of the new cam with just 50Mbps with no P2. So effectively an updated DVX100a with DVCPROHD @ 50Mbps 16:9. Can that bandwidth DVCPro be put to tape? So you'd have something better than the Sony and Xl2 at the lower end and then also release a 100Mbps version with P2, under 10k.

I am really excited about this new one - but trying not to get too excited or I might end up suffering XL2itis.

Aaron