February 1, 2006

[Shannon Rawls]

So many places, I hear people bashing HDV, bashing DVCPRO-HD, bashing FX1/Z1U, bashing 1080i, bashing 720p. Etc...
Since 2005 seems to be the dawn of a new day in Digital Video in reference to HD, please....let's save this thread until 2/1/2006 and count the votes.

In this thread, place your bets on who will win the HiDef war.

Reply with your opinion. Now, c'mon people, we all know who 'really' thinks 'what', based on their past responses, tests, posts, arguments and claims. So don't come here trying to be politically correct singing cuam-baya talking about "let's wait and see, everything i've said in the past is speculative" and all that crap. MAN UP and don't be a punk. Say what you feel. Simply state what you believe NOW, post it HERE, let's not make this a big discusion forum. save discussions for other posts. Respect eachothers opinion and we'll see how it goes in 1 years time. *smile*

To make things easier for you, I will start it off.....
_________________________________________________

SHANNON W. RAWLS, Producer
- I believe 1080i will be the majority standard for Broadcast Television throughout the entire world and will remain to be until a HIGHER resultion option becomes available.
- I believe 720p HD cameras for television production will never be a standard of the majority and therefore be forced to up-convert to 1080i to be broadcasted naturally making better sense to originate your projects from a camera that shoots in 1080i.
- I believe for NOW and the FUTURE that anyone who shoots HD 720p is doing so because of a financial/economic reasons, and if "Money was no object" they would rather shoot 1080i. Which brings me to the new HDV format....
- I believe the Sony FX1 & Z1 HDV cameras are here to stay and will become staple equipment in most motion picture production.
- I believe that will be part of the inventory list in more production companies then any "comparable" camera made by it's competitors by Feb 1st, 2006.
- I believe the High Definition Video format, called "HDV" will infact be accepted for HD broadcast, and will be allowed as a master format to larger Cable HD networks such as HDNet, Discovery HD, ESPN HD, and others of the like by Feb 1st, 2006.
- I believe, regardless of numbers, comparisons and test charts, that the "HDV" format will in the next 12 months become the 2nd most accepted format next to HDCAM for Television HD broadcast. (ducking)
- I believe many TV shows that currently originate their footage in 35mm or HD will choose to use the "HDV" format as an alternate capturing format over any other competing format. Yes, that means, more then DVCPRO-HD on the new upcoming HDX camera or any other type of hybrid HD format that will be comparable to "HDV".
- I believe (and the numbers will soon show) that Sony will sell and continue to sell more HDV FX1/Z1U cameras then Panasonic or JVC until Sony themselves comes out with a newer version of this camera.
- I believe we will see a million dollar+ motion picture movie on the big screen shot with the SOny HDV cameras before any of its competitors. Which brings me to my next issue of Modes...
- I believe the CineFrame 24 (CF24) mode, despite its hate-mail and naysayers, will become an acceptable mode to shoot in with the Sony HD cameras.
- I believe one of those million-dollar+ movies mentioned above will have originated it's footage in CF24 mode and move on to be a blockbuster hit and the 'masses' will not care one bit and they will say "It looked great!"
- I believe the producer of that million-dollar hit will be me (dammit shannon, wake up!) *smile*

MY NAME IS SHANNON W. RAWLS, and that is what I believe
______________________________

If I am wrong on February 1st, 2006. I'll eat my words. *smile*

Now.....what do YOU believe?

- ShannonRawls.com

[Douglas Spotted Eagle]

I believe in Shannon Rawls. :-)
Shannon, you are THE man.
Actually, after re-reading your list, I think I agree with everything on there, given the date caveat.

[Sean M Lee]

I believe 1080i IS High Def 720p is a wannabe, sorry Fox
I think Avid will, once again be king, but will have missed it's target date for HDV support.
I think we'll just be getting the first wave of BlueRay or HD-DVD...First to market will win because we will all author to the first out.
HDV becomes more widely accepted...Sony's only rival may be from Cannon.

I guess I'm not willing to stick my head out as far as Shannon LOL!

[Jimmy McKenzie]

Canon in a complete twist of corporate philosophy will be next out with an industry stabilizing HDV camera with many of the feature set that has set them apart from the rest with the XL2. This device will provide 1080i and will hit the market just when the dual purpose dvds become the distribution medium. Current owners of the XL series will lament their purchase for only a short period of time, (since their interchangeable lenses will not be forward compatible) but will soon after revel in the superior image quality that their new XL3-HDV delivers. This early step up to the HDV arena will not be viewed as an early cannibilization of the XL but a necessary evolution.

Sony will have serious competition at that point in time and Canon's second rennaissance as suppplier to the indies and prosumer producers will officially begin.

[John McManimie]

I believe that the iPod generation will continue to push portability to the point that most viewers will be watching most video on their portable multimedia players with their wide 3.5 inch displays and my two trusty Optura Pi camcorders will thus remain on the cutting edge! :-)

[Steven White]

I hope:

- all networks adopt 1080 (60i, 30p, 24p) as the standard
- the digital television industry make strides to attain true 1920x1080 native displays
- Blu-Ray becomes the successor to DVD is the preferred delivery format for movies, with true 1920x1080 resolution at 24p
- the HDV solution is successful until portable and replacable hard disk drives become the standard recording solution, with sufficient data rates for uncompressed video

I expect:

- the networks in the USA will adopt the 1080i standard
- the networks in Europe will adopt 720p
- the release of cheap DVCPRO-HD cameras will result in a large amount of 720p material being produced
- the large amount of 720p material will saturate in the airwaves, converted usually to 1080i, yielding interpolation artifacts up the wazoo.
- the TV industry will make largely 720p displays because they are cheaper, and as a result will incorporate electronics to take 1080i signals and interpolate back to 720p
- the Europeans will laugh because they chose the 720p standard, and maintain all native forms.
- the HD-DVD format will win out, as a result because they are cheaper to produce, and the bulk of DVD's will end up dual layer, with only 1 layer of HD-DVD so as to remain backwards compatible... in this instance, classic DVD-9's will actually have higher quality, than the DVD-5 layer of HD-DVD's, and the HD-DVD layer will be ludicrously compressed HD-video.
- 1920x1080p will remain only a high-end standard, not for use by consumers

[Steve Crisdale]

Shannon..... Dude..... You really want me to re-iterate what I've already stated in other threads?

The only reason I got into this HD game was that I realised 4 years ago that HD would supplant SD as the broadcast medium for the majority of video being distributed worldwide by the end of the first decade and a half of this century.

The changes that have happened here in Australia as the broadcasters become more aware of HD's impact are nothing short of seminal, let alone rapid....

As 1080i is the highest currently available standard to the masses of HD video transmission, my early foray into HDV with the JVC HD10u was really only a precursor to obtaining the best of the 1080i generation of camcorders.

Not only was I impressed enough with the FX-1's factory stated statistics that I purchased one.... I have found the FX-1e to be a camera that deserves the label of 'classic'.

I don't think that Feb 1st 2006 will dawn to a HDV dominated world.... where SD exponents are throwing themselves Lemming like infront of the hoardes of Sony FX-1 wielding exponents intent on crushing all opposition... but there'll be a hell of a lot more people seeing that the naysayers are just cretins, and getting on with making HD programs for broadcast!!!

[Aaron Koolen]

I believe:

- New Zealand consumers will not go "What's High Definition?" when you mention it to them.

- New Zealand TV will finally be playing movies regulary in 16:9 (Hi Def won't enter the picture until 2078)

- Canon will announce that they will be announcing something in 3 years time now that they see HDV is selling.

- Panasonic will bring out a superior camera, with a superior format but will have a small market share among professional camera users cause Sony was first and they own the world.

[Shannon Rawls]

Steve Crisdale, I'm sorry but I only have a Bachelors Degree, and I don't know what the heck you're talkin' 'bout.
Just state what you BELIEVE for Feb 1st, 2006.... we'll discuss it in another thread. *smile*

[Steve Crisdale]

<<<-- Originally posted by Shannon Rawls : Steve Crisdale, I'm sorry but I only have a Bachelors Degree, and I don't know what the heck you're talkin' 'bout.
Just state what you BELIEVE for Feb 1st, 2006.... we'll discuss it in another thread. *smile* -->>>

Ah... OK!! I've taken off my academic robes now ;)

Come Feb 1st 2006 I believe that HDV will be a format for HD broadcast transmission. No transfer to any other HD codec required, and the FX/Z1 series of camcorders will have gained a reputation as 'the' standard other prosumer camcorders are measured by.

Simple 'nuf?

[Chris Hurd]

Howdy from Texas,

Jimmy McKenzie wrote...

<< Canon in a complete twist of corporate philosophy will be next out with an industry stabilizing HDV camera with many of the feature set that has set them apart from the rest with the XL2. >>

Hmm, wishful thinking there Jimmy! Actually I believe the next manufacturer out of the chute will be JVC. They'll beat Canon to the market with "the next HDV camcorder," and it'll happen pretty soon! Canon is still a ways off yet, I'm pretty sure, that is, speculatively sure, if that's even the proper phraseology.

[Jacques Star]

I beleive:

-Anyone thinking that Sony's crappy little HDV camera will replace the Sony HDCAM and Panasonic DVCProHD are kidding themselves.

-HD cameras with removable lenses will always be superior to the ZU1 and the like due to better lenses, bigger chips, and less compression.

-At least in the U.S., HD will be a niche market for many years to come, and programs will still be shot and broadcast in SD for at least five or six more years.

-HDV is not a pro format (that is why we have something called "consumer" and "professional" The engineers designed them for a reason.

[Rhett Allen]

Hmmm, February 6th, 2006.
Partly cloudy and cold, high about 37, low of 19 (in the north east anyway)

Nothing will be much different on the HD/SD front except for maybe a few more cameras sold. Most people will still not be able to afford a delivery method for HD and if they could they would have to decide which way to go, HD-DVD or Blu-Ray DVD or maybe hold out for that new format that squeezes 250G+ onto a single disk, but that won't matter because their TV's won't display it anyway, that's right, HD-TV's still aren't at a price point the average consumer can afford one.
I doubt a show with a budget to shoot on 35mm or Full HD would abandon their current tools to shoot in a long GOP format with 1/3" chips and 4:2:0 color.
You will see people making indy's with HDV, what else is new.

Panasonic will have a sub 10K DVCPro HD (4:2:2) camera that records to P2 cards but to fill the slots with cards will cost more than the camera and it will only record in 720P (not 1080i). It will be native 16:9 but will still only have 1/3 inch chips and an attached lens. (it's marketed towards beginning indy film makers)
Canon, well who knows what the heck their doing. They'll probably make an HDV camera called the XL-HD but it won't be released yet, still 6 months out but the specs look really nice.

I really have no idea but I can only go on a hunch, it took quite a while for DVD and DV to get popular, I STILL do not own a DVD player. I watch them either on my computers or my PS2. The DVD'S I do own, better play on a next-gen player or I'll be pissed, and I am by FAR not the only one who feels that way. When there is a sub $500 HD-TV and a sub $199 HD-DVD/Blu-Ray player, it will take off, until then it's going to be a niche market (in the whole scheme of things).
I will say that Apple will be the first to offer a Blu-Ray Burner in a store bought computer and it will probably happen by 2-6-2006, just like they did when they put the first consumer DVD burner in the G4, you know, 6 months before you could even BUY one for any other computer at $1000!

[Steve Crisdale]

<<<-- Originally posted by Jacques Star : I beleive:

-Anyone thinking that Sony's crappy little HDV camera will replace the Sony HDCAM and Panasonic DVCProHD are kidding themselves.

-HD cameras with removable lenses will always be superior to the ZU1 and the like due to better lenses, bigger chips, and less compression.

-At least in the U.S., HD will be a niche market for many years to come, and programs will still be shot and broadcast in SD for at least five or six more years.

-HDV is not a pro format (that is why we have something called "consumer" and "professional" The engineers designed them for a reason. -->>>

Wow!! What's the FX/Z-1 ever done to you to deserve being labelled 'crappy'? Sounds suspiciously like someones unhappy....
Besides; I don't seem to recall anyone saying the HDV camcorders were going to supplant the far more expensive 'professional' cameras.
If you don't consider HDV a 'pro' format, would you then describe the 1080i MPEG2 sub-19Mbit data streams that HDTV channels are broadcasting (and will for many years to come) as 'pro'?
The fact that someone's World can get so 'rocked' by such an unimportant thing as HDV in comparison to the greater scheme of things is bizarre!!

[Douglas Spotted Eagle]

<<<-- Originally posted by Jacques Star : I beleive:

-Anyone thinking that Sony's crappy little HDV camera will replace the Sony HDCAM and Panasonic DVCProHD are kidding themselves.

-HD cameras with removable lenses will always be superior to the ZU1 and the like due to better lenses, bigger chips, and less compression.

-At least in the U.S., HD will be a niche market for many years to come, and programs will still be shot and broadcast in SD for at least five or six more years.

-HDV is not a pro format (that is why we have something called "consumer" and "professional" The engineers designed them for a reason. -->>>

Jacques, I'm not sure of the reason for your angst, no one has suggested HDV is superior to a 2/3 chip cam with interchangeable lenses. But saying HDV can't be a pro format is simply absurd and naive.
Just for giggles, let's look at what you're shooting. DVCam is the same quality as DV at the end of the day, same bitrate, etc.
The Bogen 501 head....well, there is little more to say about that.
Azden mic....same comment......

But I'll bet you get the job done, right? With what you've got? And while a guy like me would look at your sticks, your mics, as being "not professional" and place them against my Sachtler sticks and head, plus my monstrous very high end mic collection, and our company LDK HD camera, I also know that it's a ridiculous comparison to do so.
Your own WFAA-8 is broadcasting media shot with the Z1. Are they not professional? ABC Nightline is using the Z1. Are they not professional?

And at the end of the day, while the 390 is a great cam in its class, the image quality won't match that of the Z1, simply because of the number of pixels and what the format can do.
Compression is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, while many of us are loving uncompressed, and will continue to do so, the trend in the industry is more efficient compression formats and schemes. When all is said and done, what counts is what the consumer sees. Since there are so many different variables in the human eye, coupled with the types of displays, compression will become more common, not less common.

Naysayers said DV could never be a pro format in 1997. I remember it well, as do many others. Chris Hurd and I met on a board where we used to read this sort of ignorance on a daily basis nearly 10 years ago. But in the face of that, easily 40% of what is on television as new media was acquired in DV. So, remember this day as the day you heard it said that HDV will be a major broadcast-destined format. With TI, Philips, and Intel all releasing MPEG2 decoder chips for televisions, and new format decoders for settop players in the next 90 days, you'll see more and more opportunities for compressed formats, and HDV to be prevalent. If Microsoft can withstand the new MPEG lawsuit they are facing, I predict a VC-1 or WMV-based camera in the next 24 months. And it too, will be broadcast quality.

Either way, it's one thing to say that HDV isn't your first choice. That's fine. But don't go knocking what you clearly don't know about.
The Bogen 501 and the Azden mic would definitely not be my first, second, or fifth choices. But I respect those tools for what they are and the market they're designed to sell into.