HD-DVD player demoed

[Paul Henley]

I have to slightly disagree with you Yi. The next generation of high definition movies can be accepted by the consumer. In fact, I believe the transition can and will happen, assuming of course that certain criteria are met:

1) As discussed previously, the CE (consumer electronics) industry needs to decide upon one format. Any protracted format war could cripple HDs acceptance with the average consumer.

2) The entertainment industry, specifically the MPAA, must stop the constant legal and governmental stone walling every time some new technology is developed. They have interfered with tech advancements even before the days of radio. Their meddling has already hurt the adoption of HD through draconian copy protection protocols (DVI) and endless litigation that have effectively nullified consumer “fair use” rights and has crippled into obsolescence millions of HDTVs made prior to 2003 that were not equipped with DVI.

3) Player/recorders must be backwards compatible with existing DVDs. Target price for an average unit should be somewhere between 80 to 200 dollars. (Realistically, I know that won’t happen immediately, but it should be a goal within the next three years)

4) There must a long term plan within the CE industry to gradually replace on store shelves legacy DVD units with HD players. That’s a no-brainer there. A similar scenario happened recently with the transition of interlaced to progressive players. Most consumers never even noticed the change. As long as criteria #3 is met, the transition should be seamless.

5) Studios gradually replace existing and newly released DVD movies titles with the HD versions – just like what happened between the VHS and DVD. Again, another no-brainer.

6) HD movie titles should be competitively priced.

7) And finally, Broadcasters need to up the ante in providing additional HD content. Because of costs, many have been dragging their feet, kicking and screaming every step of the way.

Assuming the above scenario is implemented, I believe the progression to HD will be easily accepted by the average consumer.

Now, in reference to whether this new disc format will be solely for the snobby hobby enthusiast. I don’t think so. As with any new technology, the early adopters (the tech heads and niche market types) will always be at head of the line, but unlike SACD and DVD-A, where it took a discriminating ear to appreciate the difference in sound quality, the transition to HD won’t be as slow going. For one, HDTVs have become common place on most TV showroom floors across the US. From Best Buy, to Circuit City and evens Sears, HDTV is here to stay. The only roadblock presently is limited access to HD content and programming. With the arrival of the HD-DVD (or Blu-Ray), the CE industry will finally be providing a format worthy enough of showcasing on these new sets.

Just as the DVD spurned the home theater phenomena, I predict the arrival of the HD-DVD will finally propel HDTV sales to record levels. And of course with the acceptance of HD, the natural progression to HDV will finally become a reality to the mass market.

Just in case you are wondering whether or not the difference in DVD versus HD is significant, here is a recent article of an event where Sony showcased Blu-Ray to a group of home theater enthusiasts. Very interesting feedback from the attendees.
http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htforum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=212575&highlight=bluray

Well, I’m off my soap box.

[Graham Hickling]

>>> Unlike SACD and DVD-A, where it took a discriminating ear to appreciate the difference in sound quality, the transition to HD won’t be as slow going.

I think this is the key point. There is always some guy who wants to have a BIG television in his livingroom to impress his buddies. And although an SD DVD will look OKish on his screen, his buddies will definitely be able to tell whether or not he has an HD player.

My prediction is that some sort of DVD-compatible HD player (not entirely convinced it will be Bluray) will take off at Circuit City and Best Buy as soon as it sells for under ... um ... let's guess .... $450.

[Yi Fong Yu]

paul,

man how come DVI can't do meetings like that? check out the newest gear in groups get group discounts, etc. oh wait... we kinda do =).

all of your points exactly proves my points (even the link you gave me). every step that you listed is another hoop that the consumer has to wait for to upgrade to HD-based DVD. those 7 points are very massive steps to take every each one of them. by the time that actually solidifies and makes sense and happens we'll have added thousands of more titles to DVDs. when VHS first came out it was slow rollout of film catalogues. by the late 90s almost ALL film had been released on VHS from the late 1800s til the modern age. as of right now i personally know many 1900-1930s titles by key artists have not completely come out on DVD (like D.W. Griffith, who has his major works out but not COMPLETE works). by the time HD-based DVDs come out (in large quantities and widespread availability) we will have achieved nearly complete works on everyone on regular DVDs.

i think the biggest point we have to agree to disagree on is whether or not consumers (average joe not home cinema enthusiasts) will be able to tell the difference.

that and the fact that they have already re-purchase all of their catalogue in the HD format (like those in the HT forum).

the last two points i mentioned are massive problems HD-based DVD solution has to overcome and figure out for it to be as popular as DVDs are today to consumers. imho they should have had HD-based DVDs worked out in the late 90s to coincide with HDTVs so that HDTV can boost sales of HDVD and HDVD can boost sales of HDTV. now we're left with half-baked ideas and multi-format multi-platform and multi-confusion. thus i still don't think HDVD will be as popular as regular DVDs.

we shall have to collect our bets in a decade =). chris i wonder if this site will be around for that long?