NYPD Helicopter / Multirotor "Near Miss" Unraveling

[Jim Michael]

The drone delivery idea has some fundamental issues. Consider the lift capability it would need to carry a package to a destination, risk of injury to curious people (children) who run up to it when it lands to drop something off, the cost when some kid throws a rock at it and crashes, etc. They won't be saving any money compared to the buck they're paying the poor schmoe subbing the delivery work.

[David Heath]

Originally Posted by Dave Allen

The Amazon delivery multirotor thing continues to be a massive publicity hoax.

That was my first reaction, but after the latest news (Amazon asking for FAA permission to test) I'm beginning to wonder. Especially since that news story says "The news sent shares of the nation's largest e-commerce company up nearly 6 percent on Friday". I don't know what Amazon is valued at, but 6% of whatever is a lot of money......

The story came from Jeff Bezos himself at Christmas, and given how the market is now treating it, then if it should indeed turn out to be just a "massive publicity hoax" it could backfire very badly against Amazon.

In answer to Jim's question (why?) then I can only suppose the answer is cost - they see it as cheaper and providing a quicker delivery service than current methods. And more immediate may mean they can charge more for the delivery, and more likely sales if you know you'll get in within a couple of hours?

If it is serious, then it's not likely to be viable in city centres, but in the suburbs...... well, we'll see.

[David Heath]

Originally Posted by Jim Michael

The drone delivery idea has some fundamental issues. Consider the lift capability it would need to carry a package to a destination, risk of injury to ...........

I know.... that was why I myself was highly sceptical about the idea when I first heard it. (And still am, to an extent.)

But doing a bit of googling after the last post I found this - Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos says Prime Air drones are nearly here | Mail Online - and in that it says:

Amazon is serious about using drones to deliver items to its customers, and is close to developing the technology to make it a reality, the company's CEO has claimed.

In his annual letter to shareholders, which was made public yesterday, Jeff Bezos gave an update on the Seattle-based company's achievements in 2013 - including a reference to drone development..............


Bezos said testing of '5th and 6th generation aerial vehicles' was currently underway, adding that more drones - perhaps the models that will be put into active service - were in the design phase.

He then added: 'And there is more invention to come. The Prime Air team is already flight testing our 5th and 6th generation aerial vehicles, and we are in the design phase on generations 7 and 8.'

I cannot see Jeff Bezos making "hoax" claims about business matters in a Letter to Shareholders? Surely there are strict rules about that - and this isn't going to be one that you will get away with?

Yes there are issues, but I wonder if they are just a matter of how much money can be thrown at it? And if they perceive big rewards - maybe even licensing the delivery technology to others - I can only assume they think it's worth it.

Maybe we're on the cusp of a wave similar to manned flight in the early days - which itself is only a hundred years or so ago. Would anyone in 1910 really have imagined the numbers of people flying all over the world now? And the speeds, size of aircraft, size of airports, etc? And you could probably say the same about car travel, motorways, etc. Point is that a big market makes huge expenditure worthwhile. I'm old enough to remember being sceptical that mobile phones (and for voice calls only, at that!) would ever become mass market.

[Bill Davis]

Myt 2 cents on the Amazon thing having spent a good bit of time with corporate CEO types.

The reason they're thinking about this is that it's one of the few "possible" things that could have a short term and VERY dramatic effect on sales.

We're a culture conditioned to convenience and immediate gratification.

Let me pose this question. How many reading this have sat preparing for a shoot - and realized that there a was a small product that you could use to pull it off better? An extra battery, a different cable, a couple more CF cards for the shoot - and THEN realized that you had little chance of sourcing it locally and even less chance to get it via mail order on time?

I know I've done that at least a hundred times in my career.

IF there was a way to click on an amazon link and know that a drone would land with it at my door inside 2 hours - I would have clicked time and again.

For amazon, this is an unmade sale. Maybe I'd order the thing from B&H or my local shop and wait for traditional delivery - and maybe I'd forget the whole thing and move on to other issues.

Amazon knows that there is a LOT of this type of "impulse buy" revenue being lost every hour of every day. Probably a truly mind-boggling amount since this is how human nature operates.

Impulse is powerful.

If Amazon could pull it off, they'd see their cut of global sales skyrocket - literally.

I too don't really think the drone delivery thing will happen so much, but I can sure see the business rational driving the idea. There's a gigantic mountain of money in rush delivery untapped. And so a idea is born.

[Dave Allen]

Amazon is serious about using drones to deliver items to its customers, and is close to developing the technology to make it a reality, the company's CEO has claimed

Allow me to decipher corporate public relations propaganda:

1. "is serious about" Decoded; "If we say so, it will be perceived as true!" Any time a corporation's PR wing proclaims "we take seriously" you can bet it's in response to being caught, well, not taking something seriously.

2. "is close to developing" Decoded: We have not developed, but see item #1"

The press and Amazon has watched too many issues of Terminator and thinks it can be Skynet.

[Jim Michael]

Useful in contract negotiations too - if you don't go with our price reduction to 75 cents a unit you won't be cost competitive with our drones.

[David Heath]

Originally Posted by Bill Davis

IF there was a way to click on an amazon link and know that a drone would land with it at my door inside 2 hours - I would have clicked time and again.

For amazon, this is an unmade sale. Maybe I'd order the thing from B&H or my local shop and wait for traditional delivery - and maybe I'd forget the whole thing and move on to other issues.

Amazon knows that there is a LOT of this type of "impulse buy" revenue being lost every hour of every day. Probably a truly mind-boggling amount since this is how human nature operates.

Exactly. If it's an item that you know exactly what you want, the main reason nowadays for buying in a store rather than online is speed, that and not having to be at home waiting for a next day delivery. If they bring this off, it would indeed mean that an online order *could* be with you more quickly than purchasing in a store - and taking into account travel costs saved, possibly more cheaply as well. Let alone getting to the store and finding them out of stock.

As Bill says, if they could pull it off - it would be huge. Make the order online at 9.34, get a confirmation of "go into your garden at 10.56", and at 10.55 you see this object coming up the street!

But the other half of me finds it hard to credit drones criss-crossing the skies with parcels. But maybe that's exactly what someone 100 years ago would have felt if you'd tried to paint them a picture of modern aviation? If the rewards are there, someone will put in the investment and make it happen.

Originally Posted by Dave Allen

Allow me to decipher corporate public relations propaganda:

1. "is serious about" Decoded; "If we say so, it will be perceived as true!" Any time a corporation's PR wing ....

Apart from we're not just talking about some anonymous hype from a corporate PR department, nor even from just any old CEO. It's straight from the lips of Jeff Bezos, and I don't see him going on record in such terms if they weren't serious, and at least thought they had a good chance of success. Also from the article I linked to:

Bezos remained realistic about the chances of Prime Air testing turning into an fully-fledged delivery service, however.

'Failure comes part and parcel with invention. It’s not optional', he said.

Bezos went on to explain that Amazon would continuing working on drones 'until we get it right' and it becomes 'something that is really working for customers.'

'[At that point] we double-down on it with hopes to turn it into an even bigger success', Bezos added.

[Dave Allen]

Failure comes part and parcel with invention. It’s not optional', he said.

Ah, the old "failure is not an option" torturous linguistics. Man, if that isn't ever complete confirmation of Bezo's bozo PR stunt.

"Amazon drones" returned 12,600,000 Google hits."Amazon Prime Air" received 60,300,000 hits. PR genius selling vaporware made of unobtainium.

Let's see the issues:

1. What prevents someone from stealing the landed model plane.
2. How would the model plane land itself without hitting telephone wires and ground obstacles.
3. How would you make the box secure.
4. Flight times are currently limited to about 15 minutes.
5. What keeps the model aircraft form harming pets.
6. What keeps the models batteries from failing in flight.
7. Weight/complexity/effectiveness of collision avoidance
8. Add your own here.



This is a total pie in the sky joke:

Amazon Prime Air - YouTube

[Dave Brown]

Utter hoax, no matter what they say.

The business model does not work at today's ... tomorrow's ... or next century's technology. You are using a $40,000 drone to deliver a $10 package. At 4 or 5 deliveries a day, it will never be more than a publicity stunt. The whole drone thing will disappear as fast as tamagotchis in about 5 years.

[Brian Drysdale]

Also, a drone would have rather limited delivery radius around Amazon warehouses (or fulfillment centres as they term them). Good PR, but hiring a taxi could make more sense.

[Chris Hurd]

Originally Posted by Dave Allen

8. Add your own here.

8. What if it's raining. Or just windy.

[David Heath]

Originally Posted by Chris Hurd

8. What if it's raining. Or just windy.

I'll admit that had occurred to me - but if they just accept it's not always available, not under every weather condition, it could still see huge usage.

If the idea is to order something online and receive it very quickly, there could be a button next to the order with the "Prime Air" option - if the weather conditions aren't suitable, the button is greyed out.

Time will tell, but I'm keeping an open mind.