Thoughts on new FCP X Sneak Peek

[Nigel Barker]

Originally Posted by Craig Seeman

Generally people buy MacBookPROs over MacBooks because they're doing a bit more than word processing and iMovie.

All the Mac laptops now are MBPs apart from the cheaper white plastic MacBook which apparently don't sell in vast numbers. The main reason that people are buying a MBP is that it is a super fast laptop (the fastest on the market at launch dunno if it's been superseded yet) of superlative quality, with a fabulous support network & that OS X & Mac sales are rising & grabbing market share from Windows.

Thunderbolt is a really nice feature to have but it's at least 3 months before any Thunderbolt devices will be shipping. Arguing that people are buying new MBPs because of Thunderbolt one might as well say they are buying them because FCP X will be available in June! I'm still not convinced by the argument that significant numbers of people are buying a MBP because of Thunderbolt. Video professionals are a pretty small segment of Apple's market. They just published their quarterly financials & although they don't break down the sales details too much but half of all the Mac sales in the past quarter were to people who had never owned a Mac before.

[Craig Seeman]

Nigel, processor speed generally has to be "useful" to drive sales.
Actually MacBooks are very popular. They didn't have an update though. That doesn't mean people spend extra money that they will see no difference in their work though.

MBPs have basically 3 things that MBs don't have.
Firewire Port
Speed (CPU/GPU) with the i7 processor.
Thunderbolt.

Firewire is not a motivating factor to upgrade of course. People who need it have it already.
Speed (which you mentioned) and Thunderbolt.
Two big markets for MBPs are Photographers who need the processing power to handle RAW photos with programs like PhotoShop and Post Production which is Editing (any Mac NLE), After Effects, ProTools.

Everyone faces the "when should I upgrade" dilemma at some point. Every new iteration of Macs is going to have speed as one part of the improvement. It doesn't really distinguish why now vs why not wait one more version. Usually it's the NEW useful thing that causes one to get make that jump. It's not that EVERYONE uses that criteria, it's that SOME DO. And THAT results in the number of people upgrading to be higher than other upgrade cycles. The MBP upgrade was abnormally high, even more so given the market as a whole was moving in the other direction, even more so still for first timers who needed reasons to get a MBP over a much less expensive Windows i7 laptop.

EVERY SINGLE MBP OWNER NOW HAS THUNDERBOLT. That's a big target for 3rd party developers. A significant portion of that target are Post people will be using that port (even if it's not the majority of MBP purchasers.

Post people who were facing that dilemma of "when to upgrade" likely jumped because Thunderbolt was something they KNEW they were going to use. They are the people who follow the lead announcement by the companies I mentioned above.

In my consulting work I had people contacting me asking specifically about Thunderbolt. My personal experience in my work follows my reasoning. LOTS OF POST PEOPLE UPGRADED BECAUSE OF THUNDERBOLT. Whatever portion of the total MBPs purchases I don't know but it was a LARGE movement amongst people who use laptops for post work. I'd add that some of those people were new Mac purchasers. Windows laptop post people who jumped to Mac because of Thunderbolt.

[Michael Liebergot]

BTW, since there are lots of general questions about what is or isn't in the new FCPX, one of which was the inclusion of multicam.

Well if one looks at the pics of the interface:
FCP Pic1
FCP Pic2
FCP Pic3

You'll notice a button 3rd from the right above the timeline, which has a movie symbol with the number 2 on it. I bet you that this is the button for multicam.

I really find it hard to believe that Apple would take much if anything out of the new FCPX. However with that being said one of the things that I do see going away are tools for tape ingest ie. "Log and Capture." This is because Apple really seems to have been pushing the masses to move away from tape and focusing on digital content and deliver. So tape is obsolete to them.

Just a guess but this seems to have been Apple stance for the last couple of years.

[Chris Hurd]

Originally Posted by Nigel Barker

I'm still not convinced by the argument that significant numbers of people are buying a MBP because of Thunderbolt.

Significant numbers? Perhaps not, but I know of a least one person who just sold
his MBP with the intent to buy the new one precisely because it's equipped with
Thunderbolt. So yes, some people are doing just that.

By the way, some changes to this thread: it has been moved from DVi News
to Final Cut Suite and it is a merger of two FCP X threads formerly known as
"Final Cut X Announced At NAB" and "Thoughts on new FCP X Sneak Peek"
along with portions of a third, "Apple insider reports new FCP at NAB."

This move is intended to consolidate and keep the discussion focused primarily
upon those folks who actually intend to buy and use it.

[Heath McKnight]

Thunderbolt is a game-changer, and I'm seriously considering picking up either a low-end 13" or 15" MBP (whichever I can afford, though with the 13", I'm getting a dual-core Intel processor), or even an iMac! I've only used an iMac at one point in my life, and that was in early 2008 as a review. It was better than I expected, because Apple was/is intent on giving huge performance in the iMac.

I have a Matrox MXO 2 that I can't use because I'm on a 2010 15" MBP without the ExpressCard/34 slot. The Thunderbolt-to-EC/34 adapter from Matrox will get me back in the game.

Heath

[Heath McKnight]

Originally Posted by Chris Hurd

By the way, some changes to this thread: it has been moved from DVi News
to Final Cut Suite and it is a merger of two FCP X threads formerly known as
"Final Cut X Announced At NAB" and "Thoughts on new FCP X Sneak Peek"
along with portions of a third, "Apple insider reports new FCP at NAB."

This move is intended to consolidate and keep the discussion focused primarily
upon those folks who actually intend to buy and use it.

Thanks, Chris!

heath

[Gary Bettan]

While FCPX is making the most noise, Thunderbolt is going to have just as big, if not a bigger impact on video editors.

We have so many customers who are editing on an iMac. They love it. The form factor, the big screen, the ease of use. But they can't expand it. No ability to add I/O, no ability to add heavy duty RAID. Once iMacs with Thunderbolt become available I have no doubt in my mind that they will become the top choice for NLE workstations. For FCPX, Adobe or Avid editors.

Gary
Videoguys Blog - Videoguys NAB2011 Report, Part I: Apple's Final Cut Pro X Sneak Peak ? More Than Meets the Eye

[Heath McKnight]

Gary,

I'd prefer to go with a Mac Pro; for years, I had a Mac laptop and a Mac tower, but my budget is tight enough that an iMac might be in my future. I want that big screen, etc. Then again, a solid MBP would be nice, too, but I don't want to sacrifice speed and screen space with a 13" MBP when I can get a 21.5" iMac, though I'd still be sacrificing speed. As of today, the quad-core iMac starts at $1999.

You're right, though -- Thunderbolt is the biggie!

Heath

[Mathieu Ghekiere]

I know of 2 editors who bought new MBP's because of Thunderbolt.
And one of them was a pretty hardcore Windows/Avid user, that already used FCP once in a while on a hackintosh, but now bought his first Mac.

[Craig Seeman]

Gary's right about the importance of Thunderbolt. I have scores more anecdotal stories (myself including almost like Heath) in the work that I do.
Thunderbolt will impact nearly EVERY Mac Avid, Premiere, After Effects, Pro Tools, etc user. It's not just FCPX.

Nigel, with 2 million FCP users and add the above programs, the majority of the Mac post industry has reason to move to Thunderbolt. Mac Pro users can probably wait the longest because they have PCIe card solutions in place but that's the very reason why I said the order of release is important. MBP and iMac potential purchases have the GREATEST MOTIVATION to buy Thunderbolt.

It's not that everyone buying an MBP or iMac "needs" Thunderbolt but everyone in the Post industry who does, is jumping. This is especially so if they need a laptop solution, hence MBP first.

Heath's story about the MXO2 is typical. Nigel, in the post market Thunderbolt may even equal or lead over the importance of the processor. I also have an MXO2 and I'm using it on my 2008 15" MBP which is only Core2Duo and was the last year the 15" model had the Express port. Having an i7 doesn't help me if I can't use my MXO2 and I didn't want to be forced to get a 17" with Express port because it's too big. I now not only have a 15" option but I can even consider 13" if I wanted.

This may even impact Windows laptops users as well. Devices such as Blackmagic Shuttle is not compatible with any laptop with USB3 or Express port with USB3 adaptor. People with Windows laptops and need of professional video I/O have limited options. Windows users may consider moving MacBookPros. Now they can consider any MBP with the choice of either Matrox or Blackmagic Thunderbolt I/O devices (and AJA is working on something as well).

[Nigel Barker]

I totally agree that Thunderbolt is a wonderful technology for the future but buying a MBP today because there will be Thunderbolt devices available in 3 months time seems a remarkable act of faith. It's not like there is a shortage of MBPs & if you don't grab one now there may not be any available when there actually are Thunderbolt devices available to go with them. I am sure that there will be iMacs with Thunderbolt soon & even Mac Pros in time. I just find it odd that you are talking as though these things are all available right now along with the whole Thunderbolt ecosystem of nifty fast devices. For example the Matrox MXO2 with Thunderbolt & their Thunderbolt to ExpressCard adapter are not even promised for delivery until July. People generally buy today what they need for their work today. So my prediction would be a rise in MBP sales in 3+ months when there really are devices to attach to the Thunderbolt socket (apart from displays using the mini-DisplayPort).

[Gary Bettan]

Here's some Thunderbolt technical stuff I learned at NAB that effects the PC side of the house:

Initially you will not see Thunderbolt add-in cards. The reason is that the Thunderbolt adapter would require more bandwidth then a single PCIe expansion slot can give - even a PCIe 16x graphics card slot! So in order to add Thunderbolt as an aftermarket and get all the goodness, you would need an adapter card that was actually two cards strapped together.

I've been pretty anti- Sandy Bridge. Many customers and tech blogs don;t get it. The Sandy Bridge chipset and motherboards share PCIe bandwidth. Each PCIe slot does not have it's own dedicated bandwidth. So if you were to add an MXO2 (or Kona) I/O card, and a RADI controller card and had a Big fast CUDA graphics card, you WILL hit bottlenecks. Sandy bridge was designed for Laptops and self contained computers (think iMac) that are NOT expandable.

Why would Intel cripple the total PCIe bandwidth for Sandy Bridge? Only thing that makes sense to me is Thunderbolt. Give it all the bandwidth it needs and let PCIe share whatever is left!

So our advice is skip Sandy Bridge. Wait for Thunderbolt enabled Intel Motherboards for Windows.

Sorry if the Thunderbolt discussion is hi-jacking the thread. I just see the hardware and software technology going hand-in-hand for a very exciting future for video editors.

Gary

[Steve Kalle]

I agree with Nigel on this.

With the '11 MBP, it is the first time Apple has used a quad-core CPU in a laptop. And these new Sandy Bridge quad-core CPUs are almost as fast as the Nehalem i7 desktop quad-core in the entry Mac Pro. I have never considered a MBP for exactly this reason because I could buy a Windows 7 laptop with a quad-core for the last few years for half the price of the 17" MBP. But now, the 'SB' i7 quad-core makes a great reason to buy a new MBP. Having Thunderbolt is just icing.

While Thunderbolt is great, many of the devices being made for it defeat the purpose of having a mobile solution. No one is going to take a multi-disk raid array around with them. I understand a small number of people buying due to TB but that means these people are also looking to spend thousands on new gear to use with it rather than use existing gear.

Again, I come back to the CPU upgrade being the most important factor. Now, you can have a MBP almost as fast as many newer Mac Pros and FASTER than many older Mac Pros (prior to i7). It would be crazy to rely on a dual-core computer no matter how great TB becomes.

However, I do believe TB is THE deciding factor when someone is comparing an entry Mac Pro to a MBP. The speed advantage of the Mac Pro is now irrelevant.

And yes, I totally agree that Thunderbolt is a game changer.

I just wonder what Apple will do now that most people won't NEED to buy expensive Mac Pros. After all, Mac Pros have a great profit margin. Although on the flip side, the entry cost for Apple with TB and i7 has decreased so more potential customers are available.

[Craig Seeman]

Nigel, there's nothing that's going to change about MBP hardware in the next three months. The prices aren't going to drop either. If there's need for a purchase there's absolutely no benefit in waiting until later in the same product life cycle to make a purchase. It's that people who would delay purchase to the NEXT product bump now have no reason to wait. They get the same computer today they'd get in July. Unless they're having financial issues one can purchase today.

Gary, interesting about the Sandy Bridge. Of course the first round of Thunderbolt devices are exactly those things that aren't expandable. MBP and probably iMac. I haven't checked Intel's roadmap but what you describe would impact MacPros most which will likely get Thunderbolt last. I don't know if Intel will be on to their next chips by then though.

You must have some belief as to one Intel will move past Sandy Bridge in order to say "wait until next year."
The reality though is that us folks who are professionals in post have no reason to wait especially in the laptop/iMac area. MacPros already have PCIe with various i/o cards and storage devices so they may not have an urgent need to jump to Thunderbolt unless it solves a specific problem.

The above is the very reason why I think Apple's computer updates are happening in the order they are. MBP is likely the largest proportional demand for Thunderbolt. iMac is a bit smaller but a good part of that market have nothing to do with Post. MacPro is the least because Thunderbolt would have to fill a need that one's current collection of PCIe cards don't.

Again the MXO2 is the perfect example. Thunderbolt means I can upgrade my laptop to a non Express port model. I don't need to upgrade my MacPro because the MXO2 already has a PCIe card.

BTW as the tie to FCPX, all the post people buying these MBPs may well buy FCPX given the $299 price. it's practically the price of a good plugin. Even if people are using Avid or Premiere on their new MBPs and FCPX may not yet have feature parity, FCPX could well be an adjunct offline tool for some projects given some of the features (and assuming things can get exported easily). This may well be in line with the comments from Apple in the Scott Simmons blog post. Even if FCPX isn't the tool for editing a feature it might be the tool for project organization and rough cut. Just like FCP1 wasn't and Avid killer but by FCP3 it began to compete. Getting that first copy of FCPX on all these systems makes the move upward in market share and "go to" tool that much easier over the next couple of years.

Basically Thunderbolt is growing the Mac market share (MBP and probably iMac) and FCPX can grow commensurately even though it's not the thing motivating the move.

[Craig Seeman]

Originally Posted by Steve Kalle

I agree with Nigel on this.

While Thunderbolt is great, many of the devices being made for it defeat the purpose of having a mobile solution. No one is going to take a multi-disk raid array around with them. I understand a small number of people buying due to TB but that means these people are also looking to spend thousands on new gear to use with it rather than use existing gear.

I must travel in very different circles than you do. Heath's post is typical of what I'm hearing. Storage is only part of the equation. Video i/o on a laptop. The ability to handle multilayered streams of uncompressed or Apple ProRes on fast storage and throughput on location. The majority of laptop users don't need this. Conversely NEARLY ALL Post people using laptops NEED this.

Please keep in mind we're talking about the needs of the POST community here. It is also the very same people who will buy FCPX even if it isn't their main NLE at first. Again this is how Apple "ecosystem" marketing logic works.