Thoughts on new FCP X Sneak Peek

[Craig Seeman]

I don't argue Macs are "better" than Windows PCs, not even that FCP is or FCPX will be a better NLE.

One can just look and Post market share and apparently a large portion use Mac and a large portion use FCP and I do think people have made and will continue to make this as a business decision.

My posts, I believe, have been about the industry and the market, not about my personal preference.

I will state that the above is not likely simply due to "marketing." The reasons why Macs are chosen are not likely insubstantial. The numbers are formidable and the decisions are practical.

I think anyone who practices safe computing can generally avoid viruses, trojans, etc.

[David Knaggs]

I thought this was an interesting article this morning. Mac sales are up by 28%. I wonder if many of the new Mac owners will be tempted by a $299 FCP X over the installed iMovie? Maybe students?

Apple profit soars 95pc on record iPhone sales and strong demand for iPads and Macs | The Australian

[Heath McKnight]

Craig, I've been enjoying your posts!

David, by Apple putting Aperture 3 (which was rumored to be iPhoto Pro, but instead just borrows some features, like Faces, Places, etc.) on the Mac App Store and lowering the price from $199 to $79, Apple is selling a lot of digital copies. I keep alluding to this because FCP is following the same path, from rumors (iMovie Pro) to digital only distribution, lower cost, etc.

heath

[Craig Seeman]

David, there are some very interesting "take aways" on the details posted at Macworld
Apple reports big gains in sales, profits for second quarter | Computers | MacUser | Macworld

Mac Laptop sales Q2 2010 Unit Sales 1796, Q2 2011 Unit Sales 2751
Q2 2011 is basically MBP Thunderbolt sales!
Desktop went down from 1147 to 1009 given the lack of any noteworthy hardware updates

Mac sales increased 28% quarter over quarter 2.9 million vs 3.76 million. This is also compared to 3% contraction in the PC market overall.

So Mac sales seem to be bucking the market trend in a big way and leading that is MBP with Thunderbolt. Please understand the significance of Thunderbolt whether you believe it helped drive sales or was simply coincidental. It opens the door for bigger sales for Thunderbolt video and storage device makers. I think David is correct in that these will be people tempted by $299 FCPX.

Although there's no demographics I wouldn't be surprised if Thunderbolt motivated a fair number of people in the Production/Post Production market to make the leap anticipated high end portability for their work.
Others may have just needed to update . . . and they'll just happen to already own a MBP ready to add a shinny new video or storage device if/when FCPX grabs their fancy.I'd guess you'll be getting students and pros toying with FCPX and buying Thunderbolt devices. This is how Apple's "ecosystem" works.

iMacs are coming with the next few weeks and, if they have Thunderbolt, you're going to see I jump there as well. For many, for the first time you'll get PCIe equivalent connector without having to be a "tower desktop." Again increase in market share and lower point of entry. A bunch more doors open for Video and Storage makers and a bunch more people who'll be downloading FCPX for $299.

My guess is that sometime around or after WWDC will come MacPros and those with clear pro intentions who have the highest likelihood of using Thunderbolt will be buying in . . . and throwing that $299 download of FCPX onto the . . .Apple cart so to speak.

Then there will be the Lion updates . . . also from the App store because it may unlock some additional power for FCPX (although this is admittedly speculative but I've heard that some of FCPX is Lion specific). This will make FCPX even more attractive for some if it's true.

Absolutely Apple is a closed system but people may be quite happy locked in a candy store.

Thunderbolt computer updates, FCPX, Lion are all deliberately timed and even the order of systems getting the Thunderbolt updates may be part of that. You can only do that when you have a controlled ecosystem where you make the hardware, the OS, the NLE.

BTW I can even make the analogy to the iOS and iTunes store selling iPhones and iPads. Maybe for another post.
I can also speculate what I'd do if I were Adobe, Avid, Sony. Maybe for another post. I don't think any of them would be as successful as Apple but they just have to be more successful then they have been to grow. Sony has the best chance of any other company to use the ecosystem model. Adobe and Avid are cross platform so they have no problem penetrating deeper into the Mac market.

[Heath McKnight]

Those sales figures are in the thousands on top of the number, so 2.7 million laptops were sold.

Heath

Jon from Digital Rebellion did a blog on Thunderbolt when it was announced with the new MacBook Pros:

Why Thunderbolt is a game-changer - Digital Rebellion Blog

"To me, this is a game-changer because these ports can become any type of port as long as you have an adapter, so Apple essentially added support for USB 3.0, eSATA and anything else you like in one go. Thunderbolt is a huge leap forward for professional users. Its power is in its versatility.

"It also means that laptops can finally rival desktops in I/O performance. As an example of the amount of throughput you'll be able to get on a laptop, Apple showed a demo of Final Cut Pro running four streams of uncompressed HD on the 15" MacBook Pro, peaking at 600MB/s."

heath

PVC posts some thoughts and comparisons of the overall look of FCP X to iMovie:

ProVideo Coalition.com: the EDITBLOG on PVC by Scott Simmons

Also, I like what this person theorizes... that FCP X development was started in 2007, and iMovie '08 "jumped off" from that development:

http://blog.nicedissolve.com/2011/04...hip-to-imovie/

heath

[Robert Lane]

This is a "must-read" article for any current and future FCP user; it points out exactly the potential gotchas that lurk in this ground-up rework of Final Cut.

Again, my best advice to those who use the Final Cut suite for a living is to WAIT several months AFTER it launches before jumping on this bandwagon. There are just too many things that might make this a non-starter if existing hardware/software/plug-in compatibilities become an issue.

[Dean Sensui]

Here's what I do whenever I have an upgrade or major changes in software:

-- Make an exact, bootable duplicate of my operating drive using Super Duper.
-- Do the install on either that drive or the current operating drive.

This way in case things go badly I can readily take a step backward and return to how things were. It's the ultimate "undo" button.

[Ron Evans]

That is an interesting article from a FCP and MAC user. A little bias appears now and again but very to the point that a PC user like myself might comment. A possibility that hasn't been raised is whether FCP X is an additional product in the range between iMovie and a high end FCP. This is the norm in the PC world. Moviemaker comes free and isn't as good as iMovie, most NLE companies have a range of products from about $50 to the normal pro range above $700. Maybe Apple is adding a product in this mid range which might explain the download app store approach. This would be at a price point above the mid range PC applications but below the pro models. Is it an attempt to counter the possible inroads of Adobe Elements ?

Ron Evans

[Craig Seeman]

Scott's blog post on this is about one of the most sensible and detailed post I've read. I saw it the day he posted it as it's one the places I check daily.

He mirrors a lot of what I've been thinking as well as I put the pieces together.
The comment about this being FCP1 again is probably accurate. It matches my industry analysis that Avid 1989 had crummy pictures yet led the industry within a few years. FCP1 in 1999 was no Avid killer but so much about the workflow, within it's limited features set, was better than Avid (and I had been on Avid for 10 years at that point) and the price was so inexpensive, people could use it immediately and it grew into a big facility tool.

One key difference is that Apple's new distribution model allows for much faster growth. Without the disc, box and ship I can see them moving to faster releases. Maybe twice a year for major components and lots of little nifty ones in between.

As he experienced directly Apple certainly did talk to people afterwards, just not the larger audience. They want the feedback because the FCPX is still very much growing. Something will come out in June and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some major new stuff just 6 months later in December. The speed of update is purely speculative on my part but Apple's interaction with people and the new method of distribution concretely allows for it though.

His comments about iMovie and FCPX development timing also more or less match my thoughts. I'm not sure FCPX led but I do think they were more or less parallel. iMovie was Randy Ubillos' playground to work out the skeleton of the interface that would also be part of FCPX. It also created another part of the ecosystem model where someone could grow up from iMovie amateur to FCPX Pro editor. The 10 year old kid having fun will be able to be the 20 years taking the entry level position at a post facility. It wont be alien.

Even Scott's comment about FCPX not blowing away other NLEs matches my comments about any individual component in Apple's ecosystem, computer, NLE, etc might have a better piece out there. Apple just has a better ecosystem though. The new thinking in FCPX will fit in with a workflow which, over time, will be very big in efficiency and flexibility.

BTW I think why the "questions" issue is creating so much anxiety with FCPX, even more so than any other company that might do a sneak peek or small feature leak, is that Apple's key strength is their ecosystem and that ecosystem was the "thing" not shown or explained or even hinted at at the sneak peek.

BTW I think these are the best videos of the event. I believe they had access to the official camera. There's are head on shots. It's the clearest presentation of what Randy Ubillos was doing.

MacVideo - Editing - Features - Apple previews Final Cut Pro X

and these two interviews they did. The first one is Steve Martin who obviously is a beta tester (not simply someone who got the draw dropping Feb pre screening). He's the founder of Ripple Training and I suspect he's the one who will be releasing the "Apple approved" first training video. He is VERY GUARDED in his comments but his body language and hesitations and mental editing actually do reveal a lot.

The second one with Ned Soltz is noteworthy because given the publications he writes reviews for I have a hunch he's going to be one of those privy to writing one of the "first look" articles that hit the trades.

MacVideo - Editing - Interviews - Impressions of Final Cut Pro X: Steve Martin; Ned Soltz

Given the camera they got and who they interviewed, the above almost to be "Apple approved." I just don't think a beta tester who likely will do the training videos gets an interview unless Apple says OK. That's all speculation but this just seems a "cut above" what I've seen on other sites.

[Heath McKnight]

Ron,

I think FCP X will be as professional an app as FCP, Premiere Pro CS5.5, Avid Media Composer and all the others currently are.

I disagree with what the author said about cutting a feature on FCP 1.0... I used FCP 1.0 (and didn't upgrade for close to two years) to cut a feature shot on DV (XL-1), and never had any issues. The only problems were going to tape (I had to do LP on a Panasonic 80 minute tape), and I may have had to have 2 timelines, but it's been 10-11 years since I did that. I can't remember.

Lastly, I do think Randy and the team were developing FCP X and iMovie '08 sprang from it; I think it's a good, solid theory that it could be seen as a way to test it, per Chris Kenny's blog, Nice Dissolve.

Keep in mind that Scott had to really work hard to get the iMovie timeline to look like FCP X's.

heath

[Craig Seeman]

Well I guess if you were cutting a feature on DV that would work.
BTW didn't the Canon XL-1 have the sync issue in FCP due to the slight difference in audio sample clock? Apple had a plugin to fix that IIRC.
Media management was so badly implemented that it made FCP unusable for many professional jobs.
I vaguely remember a slew of time code handling issues as well.
I wouldn't have wanted to try to handle a DigiBeta deck with it either for various reasons.
Cinema Tools didn't come out 'till 2002 so handling film transfer time code things also presented issues if memory serves me (and it may not).
The Title Tool screamed Please Use Photoshop.

BTW interesting history on Wikipedia
Final Cut Pro - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Here's the Broadcast and Film firsts

The first fully Broadcast quality, Worldwide Distributed TV show produced on Final Cut Pro was 2000's WOW! Women of Wrestling, using the Pinnacle CinéWave uncompressed video card.

In late 2001, the studio motion picture The Rules of Attraction was edited on beta versions of Final Cut Pro 3, proving to the film industry that successful 3:2 pulldown matchback to 24fps could be achieved with a "consumer" off-the-shelf product. Roger Avary, the film's director became the spokesperson for Final Cut Pro, appearing in print advertisements worldwide.

I'd say it was around FCP3 that Avid users could begin to consider moving to FCP if they didn't need specific Avid features that weren't well implemented, IMHO.

[Heath McKnight]

All very true, Craig, that's why I made it clear my film was DV. I thought the first major feature (indie?) was Steven Soderbergh's Full Frontal in 2002? I remember seeing ads from Canon for the XL-1, but I though FCP was used for the film. I also remember the Roger Avary ads that mentioned editing late at night at home, etc. It was nice to see those ads, since all the major films were (and are) cut on Avid.

I think FCP 3 was one of my most favorite versions, but FCP 4's user interface felt a little more like Avid, and that look stayed the same until FCP X, so 8 years. But the overall UI hasn't changed since 1999. (As an aside, FCP 2 was bad and unstable -- FCP 3 came out within months).

Craig, I never had any sync issues. Where I did have sync problems was later down the road... I had a short film with strange audio issues (low static is the best way to describe it), and we didn't have a mixer on set, just a boom mic. My friend in 2003 fixed it, and everything was fine; he used sound tools from a PC, not that it was an issue. Years later, I opened the movie in FCP 6 (from v. 3), and all his audio fixes slowly went out of sync. Not sure what happened, but v. 6 didn't agree with the way he saved it.

Heath

[Nigel Barker]

Originally Posted by Craig Seeman

Although there's no demographics I wouldn't be surprised if Thunderbolt motivated a fair number of people in the Production/Post Production market to make the leap anticipated high end portability for their work.

I seriously doubt than anybody bought a new MBP because they now have Thunderbolt not least because currently there are no Thunderbolt devices available for sale.

[Craig Seeman]

Originally Posted by Nigel Barker

I seriously doubt than anybody bought a new MBP because they now have Thunderbolt not least because currently there are no Thunderbolt devices available for sale.

Thunderbolt motivated a lot of purchases. That was part of the reason the sales increase exceeded typical speed bump updates. There's always a bump up when there's a CPU speed update but this was larger. Video and storage companies made support announcements as soon as they came out. It was a targeted audience and they responded. I consult for a company that works with Blackmagic and Matrox and believe me there was a "buzz" coming from video users. They were all talking about things like, "wow won't be forced to get 17" with Express port" and "will I be able to gang 3 video input devices to go live 3 camera to a MBP" and on and on.The device were shown at NAB and should be on the market 8 -12 weeks (around the time FCPX goes on sale).

Matrox MXO2 with Thunderbolt
Matrox MXO2 Family for Mac - Convenient form factors
Blackmagic Studio 3D with Thunder bolt
Blackmagic Design: UltraStudio 3D
Promise Pegasus RAID Storage
Pegasus Thunderbolt? Technology DAS
Lacie Little Big Disk
LaCie - LaCie Little Big Disk featuring Thunderbolt Technology


Generally people buy MacBookPROs over MacBooks because they're doing a bit more than word processing and iMovie.

[David Knaggs]

Thanks to Heath and Craig for all of the excellent links.

Originally Posted by Craig Seeman

... Steve Martin who obviously is a beta tester (not simply someone who got the draw dropping Feb pre screening). He's the founder of Ripple Training and I suspect he's the one who will be releasing the "Apple approved" first training video.

MacVideo - Editing - Interviews - Impressions of Final Cut Pro X: Steve Martin; Ned Soltz
... I just don't think a beta tester who likely will do the training videos gets an interview unless Apple says OK. That's all speculation but this just seems a "cut above" what I've seen on other sites.

Craig, to me this is the most significant interview I've seen concerning the upcoming FCP X release. I have pretty much every tutorial DVD (and now iTunes download) that Steve and Ripple Training have put out.

And I'm hoping that Steve has some sort of "Getting Up To Speed With The New FCP X" tutorial set coming out at the same time as the FCP X release.

What particularly struck me was when Steve said that Randy Ubillos was the original architect of Final Cut for Macromedia. He is the "Father of FCP". Then he became the architect of iMovie and is Chief Architect over FCP X. Steve believes that FCP X is the logical evolution of how Randy thinks editing should be done.

So I do like the fact that this is actually a visionary work and not merely a catch-up to Premiere Pro and the others who got well ahead of FCP during that seemingly interminable period of re-writing the code into 64 bit, etc.

Mind you, I have many concerns about FCP X and whether it still has many of the features I currently use and like (locking and unlocking of tracks comes immediately to mind). So my final judgement will be reserved until I try to use it for a few weeks.

But I must confess that I am looking forward to:
1/ Removing background audio noise at ingest. I do corporate training videos for one company that has the noisiest air conditioning in their offices. My current noise removal efforts in Soundtrack Pro tend to leave "gurgling" noises between the spoken words and then I have to manually go through and reduce the amplitude between each word. I attribute the "gurgling" to the sound being sampled at too low a bit depth (although I could be wrong about that). So I'm hoping that the new 64 bit FCP X will also sample the audio at 64 bits and be able to do a completely satisfactory background noise removal.
2/ Auto color matching.
3/ Instant Ken Burns effect built in to FCP.
4/ Background rendering.

I just hope that they all "work as advertised".

And I agree with Craig about Thunderbolt. In fact, if the soon-to-be-released new iMacs have Thunderbolt, it might be very tempting to pick one up along with FCP X. Now that FCP will be fully leveraging the multiple cores and the graphics card, a Quad-core Thunderbolt iMac with 1 GB Graphics card and at least 8GB RAM would really hit the sweet spot.