Toshiba is reloading in the HD disc war

[Phil Hoppes]

As the article says more data is needed but regardless, it speaks to the fact that the consumers are intelligent enough to see the differences in the formats and who is backing each one.

http://www.computerworld.com/action/...&intsrc=kc_top

[Tim Polster]

I think that fact that there is a war has turned a lot of consumers off.

People know if they buy the format that does not win, their player and movies are going to go unsupported.

I thought by looking through Newegg there would have been an HD-DVD burner listed by now.

Tricky times for a lot of folks in this industry.

[Phil Hoppes]

Originally Posted by Tim Polster

I think that fact that there is a war has turned a lot of consumers off.

People know if they buy the format that does not win, their player and movies are going to go unsupported.

I thought by looking through Newegg their would have been an HD-DVD burner listed by now.

Tricky times for a lot of folks in this industry.

I would agree. Quite frankly at this point I think the contrasts is more just a Chevy's and Ford's debate not VW Beatle's and Ferrari's so I really don't care much WHO wins, just that there is one format. Then major production can go on and prices can come down to what they need to be. Had this VHS/BetaMax war not started again, we'd be buying HD blank disks for $2 and burners sub $100 by now.

[Kevin Shaw]

As far as downloaded movies are concerned, I agree with the suggestion that cable and satellite companies can pretty much own this market simply by adding the necessary features to their converter boxes. But Sony is in a unique position with the PS3 to serve both those who want disc-based HD and those who want to download from the Internet, since it can handle both.

Looks like HD-DVD is on its last legs and Internet movies have a ways to go to be fully practical. Bly-ray production prices are already fairly reasonable and should continue to improve significantly over the next year or two.

[Mel Enriquez]

Originally Posted by Phil Hoppes

As the article says more data is needed but regardless, it speaks to the fact that the consumers are intelligent enough to see the differences in the formats and who is backing each one.

http://www.computerworld.com/action/...&intsrc=kc_top

Interesting. But as the article pointed out, it is just a week of data. I'd like to wait 5 more weeks to have an accurate trend. Besides, the HD-DVD camp may try something, to counterattack. Whatever that is, I am not optimistic.

As I posted before the Critical Success Factor is the content. And it is the movies primarily on disc. Not adult, not wedding videographers, or having it in your home merely to burn your own data. These sectors are not the leader of change. They are not the CFS or the driver. They sure help accellerate change, but they do not drive it or set it.

Maybe the disc will die, but it won't happen overnight. Maybe Job's idea of content being streamed will happen. But it is still laying down the foundation for that. Discs still have time to grow along side it.

The critical issue is, at this point in time, a single disc standard must prevail. We can't have two or three. The adult industry, the wedding videographers, and home users will have to be followers, not leaders.

This result of the 1 week purchasing of players also is a clear signal, as you correctly pointed out, that consumers are savvy, and they have their heads listening for the market and the leaders. And the executives understood where the fulcrum was/is. Otherwise, why the wheeling-dealing and the rush to gain WB's blessing?

This is one time that the variables for change have been identified correctly, tested, and verified. Now all we have to do is wait, to see how HD-DVD will react and if they still have anything up their sleeve. I doubt it though. But we'll see.

BD still isn't in the clear. Sony, et. al must now move for the kill. They must reach a critical mass asap to solidify their position. Prevent any counterattacks or at least blunt it. Sony, et. al. cannot be complacent. If ever, they must accellarate their efforts to achive that critical mass - the PONR (The Point of No Return).

[James Klatt]

It's a no-win situation for HD-DVD. Even if they could find a way to regain some market share and relevance, then they would scare all the people back into waiting til the format war is over...which they could never win.

[Lawrence Bansbach]

Originally Posted by Mel Enriquez

BD still isn't in the clear. Sony, et. al must now move for the kill.

The only real thing keeping Sony from shooting itself is Panasonic. Had Panasonic gone HD DVD, Blu-ray probably would have lost.

[Kevin Shaw]

Originally Posted by Lawrence Bansbach

The only real thing keeping Sony from shooting itself is Panasonic. Had Panasonic gone HD DVD, Blu-ray probably would have lost.

Does Panasonic control any significant movie content? If not then their decisions are probably irrelevant, as not even Microsoft has been able to prevent HD-DVD from imploding. The main thing which has kept HD-DVD from disappearing already has been dirt-cheap players, and I wouldn't bet those are being sold at a profit. For once it looks like Sony made the smart decisions and it's their competition which keeps shooting itself in the foot.

[Lawrence Bansbach]

Originally Posted by Kevin Shaw

Does Panasonic control any significant movie content? If not then their decisions are probably irrelevant.

Maybe. But with Matsushita/Panasonic's manufacturing muscle and funding, the scales might've been tipped in HD DVD's favor, in terms of both available player models and the depth of the coffers from which to bribe the studios. Regardless of sweetheart deals, I presume that ultimately the studios want to support viable platforms. I'm pretty sure that Panasonic and Sony's being on the same side this time influenced their decisions (I'm not saying it was the only factor).

Originally Posted by Kevin Shaw

. . . not even Microsoft has been able to prevent HD-DVD from imploding.

What, with Xbox 360? Unlike with the PS3, the player is optional. And despite Microsoft's size, it was up against an electronics giant. Sony had the edge, at least as far as moving the players. Besides, Microsoft's name being associated with HD DVD may have worked against the format.

[Jim Boda]

Originally Posted by Lawrence Bansbach

...What, with Xbox 360? Unlike with the PS3, the player is optional. And despite Microsoft's size, it was up against an electronics giant. Sony had the edge, at least as far as moving the players. Besides, Microsoft's name being associated with HD DVD may have worked against the format.

Sony is huge. They basically were able to subsidize the HD war w/ a huge 1.2 billion dollar loss over the past two years with their game machine. ( http://www.gamegrep.com/industry_new...tware_numbers/ )

Sony is giving it away..."...was primarily due to the loss arising from the strategic pricing of PS3 at points lower than its production cost ."

Now, Toshiba is doing the same. Lowering the prices below the production cost...but, I'm NOT sure they are willing to absorb the 1.2 BILLION in losses for two years like Sony did.

Yet, Toshiba is set to earn 2.7 billion for the year. http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9584_22-6228190.html

[Heath McKnight]

Everyone, it seems, is losing money, in terms of selling below cost. HD DVD, XBOX 360, Blu-Ray, PS3, etc. They subsidize it with sales of movies, games and so on.

Heath

[Heath McKnight]

Not looking good, according to Yahoo! news:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/2008...1HK0YB5RUjtBAF

heath

[Paulo Teixeira]

Originally Posted by Heath McKnight

Not looking good, according to Yahoo! news:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/2008...1HK0YB5RUjtBAF
heath

Paragraph 7, 8 and 10 proves that his knowledge about the X-BOX 360 is very limited.

[Heath McKnight]

True; XBOX 360 is still using SD DVDs with HD content to deliver games. They won't ever have to go Blu-Ray.

heath

[Paulo Teixeira]

-EDIT-
OK, I think I’m going a little bit too far with this.