Price war could break DVD deadlock

[Boyd Ostroff]

http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage...20071725119265

in the busy shopping period since Thanksgiving in the United States, Blu-ray has been responsible for more than 72 per cent of all high-definition discs sold in the US

consumer confusion could see both overtaken by digital downloads or video-on-demand. "There is a very reasonable chance this market may not take off at all," said JP Gownder, principal analyst at Forrester Research.

The stakes extend beyond disc sales and could determine whether Microsoft, Apple or Sony ultimately take control of video distribution into the digital living rooms of the future.

[Michael Jouravlev]

Originally Posted by Boyd Ostroff

http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage...20071725119265

Sales don't show the full picture. Why buying if you can rent? Although Netflix's Blu-ray pages receive more hits, users are more likely to set HD DVD as their preferred format. I myself rent HD-DVDs on Netflix.

[Boyd Ostroff]

I don't have a horse in this race, just found the article interesting - especially the comment that neither format may take hold. Looking at the link you posted however, this is what caught my eye:

The more important statistic is that neither high-def format is even close to matching DVD demand. According to compete.com, only 0.3% of all Netflix viewers even viewed the Blu-ray or HD DVD sections.

Personally I don't own any kind of high def disk player, and have no plans to buy one in the immediate future. But it's fun to watch from the sidelines.

[Benjamin Cord]

Hollywood Reporter Predicts 2008 Win for Blu-ray
Posted December 21, 2007 by Josh

As this year comes to a close, Hollywood Reporter is making a few predictions about what they expect to see from Hollywood next year. With regards to the format war in 2008, they predict, "Blu-ray blows away HD DVD". Citing the strength of sales as the major reasons for it eventual success, they also suggested that the PlayStation 3 is a major driving force for the format.

More notable about the article is that current Blockbuster trends show Blu-ray being favored 70% to the rival format at stores featuring both products. With those statistics, Blockbuster is sure to maintain their current company policy to support Blu-ray

[Jon Fairhurst]

The big prize is Warner Bros. Right now Warner releases in both formats. Toshiba got a big win by getting Paramount to choose HD DVD exclusively (for a reported $140M.)

If Warner chooses HD DVD, the market share of the two formats will be split about 50/50. If Warner chooses Blu-ray, BD will have a 70/30 advantage.

Still, people want to be able to watch ALL the movies, not 30%, 50% or 70%. For a format to truly win, it needs 100%.

[Nate Benson]

I'm not sure about HD-dvd companies,
But Blu-Ray has been selling an insane amount at the Target I work at
(gotta fill up the gas tank with some money).

One thing I noticed is that they have been offering a a ridiculous deal throughout the holiday season

A blu-ray player
two movies
AND
a $100 gift card
all for $499

that was the black friday sale
and my store ran out of blu-ray players by 7:30,
we had about 50 of them instock.

I think good deals like that could also be a make or break point in the war.

[Greg Clark]

Have you noticed that HD-DVD is backward compatible with DVD. The HD-DVD players also have the ability to play regular blank DVD's with HD content. This will attract Event Videographers. It seems in my area that price is important and the HD-DVD players have been outselling Blue Ray. The X box for gammers has more growth potential and uses HD-DVD. A year ago I would have bet on Blue Ray but as 2008 arrives I have changed my mind. The icing on the cake for me was the news that HD-DVD triple blanks have been developed that will hold more information than Blue Ray disks. Sony must be screaming Not Again!

[Mark Duckworth]

Originally Posted by Greg Clark

Have you noticed that HD-DVD is backward compatible with DVD. The HD-DVD players also have the ability to play regular blank DVD's with HD content. This will attract Event Videographers. It seems in my area that price is important and the HD-DVD players have been outselling Blue Ray. The X box for gammers has more growth potential and uses HD-DVD. A year ago I would have bet on Blue Ray but as 2008 arrives I have changed my mind. The icing on the cake for me was the news that HD-DVD triple blanks have been developed that will hold more information than Blue Ray disks. Sony must be screaming Not Again!

Sorry, but most of those statements are complete FUD. Please do some research on both formats. It's uninformed statements like the ones above that make this format war go on and on.

1. Blu-ray players are backwards compatible with DVD also.
2. Blu-ray players can play DVD's with HD content (burned several myself using Sony Vegas).
3. Blu-ray has a higher installed base of players than HD-DVD.
4.The X-box 360 itself does not use HD-DVD, it a seperate add-on which can be purchased for around $150 to $200.
5. The LOWEST ratio to which Blu-ray software has been selling HD DVD software within the past year is approx. 60% for Blu-ray to 40% for HD-DVD.
6. HD-DVD's new triple-layer will increase capacity to 51 gigabytes. That is the maximum in the current HD-DVD spec. All triple-layer HD-DVDs (whenever they are authored, it is has only been accomplished in a lab and has not been practically implemented in any way in a real world scenario) will NOT play in ALL first generation HD-DVD players and most 2nd generation ones. The capacity for dual layer Blu-ray discs (which exist now, some examples being Cars, POTC) is 50 gigabytes. The current Blu-ray spec can go much higher in capacity than HD-DVD could ever possibly go. Sony already has demonstrated this, as have other independent companies which make discs for both formats.

[Heath McKnight]

Downloads, and the tech is coming. I'm heading out to CES in 2 weeks, and I plan on meeting with the guys and gals behind the tech for HD over IP.

Heath

[Don Blish]

Much mainstream press is focused on sales of the discs themselves, but do not underestimate the power of all those $1000 HD camcorders being sold. With HD-DVD offering no burner (needed for projects over 40 minutes), and HD-DVD players apparently NOT playing AVCHD discs, there will be increasing sell-thru for Blu-Ray. I make projects for several family groups, and they are gradually buying Blu-Ray players.

As for a download only route, who actually trusts ANY internet storage site to stay in business more than a year or two. That is not a solution for long term family memories.

[Jon Fairhurst]

Downloads are great - if you have broadband.

I can buy DVDs, HD DVDs and BDs. And I can even give them as gifts. But I can't download them. Not here. Not in HD, let alone SD.

I live within 18 miles by car from an international airport. I can walk to the top of a hill and see it. And the best I can get in stinking 2007 is 256 kbps for $50/month from a wireless ISP. I'm sitting here right now struggling just to update a website over ftp.

Anybody who tells you "the market" is the most efficient vehicle for delivering services is lying. Comcast picks the lowest hanging fruit. Sure, that's efficient for Comcast, but not for outliers.

The US ranks something like 17th in broadband deployment. Last I saw, Albania was ahead of us. If you want a ubiquitous infrastructure (e.g. the Interstate system, the phone system), you need government involvement.

Maybe downloads will be ubiquitous in South Korea or Japan, but I fear that I still won't have broadband in another decade. There is no indication that my situation will ever improve, unless I move. Or until franchise agreements require 100% coverage. Yeah, that's gonna happen.

And how do I put a download in your Christmas stocking?

-END OF RANT-

[Heath McKnight]

Well, people give iTunes Store gift cards in stockings, but I see your point. However, the technology is getting better all the time. No one thought they could fit HD onto a minidv tape or a flash or SD card, and they did it.

Intel is working on technology to help port high quality HD video over the web, among other major companies.

Heath

[Jon Fairhurst]

I guess my overall point is that downloads will work well for many, but packaged media is universal. Well, at least DVDs are and VHS used to be.

Hopefully, we will soon have a universal HD disc format - and downloads/streams.

[Harrison Murchison]

[QUOTE=Don Blish;797086] With HD-DVD offering no burner (needed for projects over 40 minutes), and HD-DVD players apparently NOT playing AVCHD discs, there will be increasing sell-thru for Blu-Ray. I make projects for several family groups, and they are gradually buying Blu-Ray players.
QUOTE]

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/12/17...-dvd-rw-drive/

I think CES next month will bring more HD DVD burning options. What i'd like to see is more fleshed out authoring programs. Plenty of programs that deliver HD/BD authoring but in a rather "no frills" manner. Here's to hoping Apple delivers HDi and BD-Java options in their next DVD Studio Pro update.

This war in unwinnable. I'll pick up a BD player next year when I can snatch a solid model for $250 and eventually I'll consolidate to a Universal player when I like the price there.

Universal players are what it'll take for mass consumer adoption IMO.

[Boyd Ostroff]

Originally Posted by Jon Fairhurst

And the best I can get in stinking 2007 is 256 kbps for $50/month from a wireless ISP.

Are those kiloBITS or kiloBYTES per second? You can get over 1500 kilobits/sec where you are today. I live in the middle of nowhere too and couldn't get DSL or cable when I moved here. I got a 1 meter dish from Hughesnet with their small business package. Just looked at a download test I ran then where I got 1.59 megabits/sec and that was pretty typical.

Now of course satellite connections can drive you crazy because of the latency, but they aren't too bad for downloading files. Of course it isn't cheap though, I was paying over $100/mo. But now I have DSL at 3 megabits/sec for less than $30/mo. Eventually it will probably come to your location. Until then, this is the price we pay for living someplace remote and beautiful. But the real point is that people like us are in the minority. FIOS, cable and DSL already reach huge numbers of people; certainly enough to make them an attractive market for content providers.