New Affordable HD DVD format poised for release

[Phil Hoppes]

Originally Posted by Jim Boda

What do mean $200+ ...? It's listed as $198.65 w/ free ground shipping.

Some early purchase reviews are starting to come in...looks like they are out of stock till the 15th.

http://www.pcrush.com/prodspec.asp?i...28462&bsrc=sli

They are even throwing in two free movies...

All orders for HD VMD players in January will come with two complementary titles, "Mother Ghost" starring James Franco and cult hit "Cutting Room."

http://www.nmeinc.com/press_release.aspx

Only mostly dead.

Throw in the Britney Spears Box set on "Dysfunctional Living" and I'm there....

[Dave Blackhurst]

UMM... it's dead Jim...

I guess rounding up a buck thirty five and calling it 200 for the base model (they had another that is MORE THAN $200, if you missed it...) is too much to grab onto... I did miss the free shipping, so OK, you win that point.

I don't think the buck and change is going to be any different than BluRay selling for $299 (under 300!!!!). And BluRay mfrs are throwing in 5 current flicks or more from what I've seen in the big box adverts... things people might buy anyway, not obscure titles. That's about the same for the player after you deduct the price of the titles, probably less.


It's great they are direct marketing over the web, but to gain mindshare they will need to be on the shelf and have CURRENT titles available, or they are DOA.

Players without content (and CONTENT CREATION since this IS a video forum and I think we'd all love to see the burner and blank disks - where are they?? Now THAT would catch my eye!!!) are nothing but a novelty item.

I originally bought into DVD (quite late actually) when I saw how great a new movie looked on DVD vs. VHS - and it was around $100 to get a GOOD player. I know HD is higher res, but I don't see as huge an improvement over DVD, probably need my eyes checked again or something - yes, it's better, but for most viewing, it's not enough to crack my wallet. ESPECIALLY while format wars are ongoing! DVD is fine and cheap, good enough!


Don't know who is going to "bet" on a 3rd tier supplier who may or not be around 6 months from now with content from the 70s and 80s... Even if they GAVE the player away, I don't see it happening.... but more power to them, maybe it will speed the affordability of BluRay as it moves to crush any competition?

[Bill Koehler]

Originally Posted by Dave Blackhurst

Don't know who is going to "bet" on a 3rd tier supplier who may or not be around 6 months from now with content from the 70s and 80s... Even if they GAVE the player away, I don't see it happening.... but more power to them, maybe it will speed the affordability of BluRay as it moves to crush any competition?

If HD-DVD folds, I would expect the price of BluRay drives to drop.

Why? Three reasons actually.
1. Walk through the AV section of BestBuy. Count the number of BluRay player vendors. This really is much more than a Sony only show. So the competition is there.

2. My understanding from the computer hardware end of things is that getting volume production of Blue lasers has been a royal pain in the backside, but those volumes have nonetheless been ramping up. With HD-DVD out of the picture, by default the entire production goes to BluRay vs. a bidding war between BluRay & HD-DVD.

3. With HD-DVD out of the picture, BluRay becomes THE STANDARD and so volumes will finally rapidly ramp up with attendant price drops, precisely because those BluRay vendors finally have a real market to compete for a piece of.

I forgot a fourth reason:
4. With HD-DVD out of the picture, your resistance, and everyone elses, to buy into BluRay will drop dramatically.

[Dave Blackhurst]

Bill -
You're right on with reason #4, I'm "ready" when the price is there and I don't have to worry about whether I bet on the wrong horse.

I've been shooting HD for two years now (got an HC1 early on, never looked back). I get great quality on an SD DVD, but one of these days I'd like to do things HD end to end. If I know that the end viewer is going to have a compatible player, you bet I'll invest in a burner, and a player for myself... but I don't want a compatibility nightmare - getting reliable SD DVD's was enough of that with + and - and so many incompatible burning programs.

Content is key, with reliable compatibility in a burnable media being right up there... prices will come down soon enough, and once it's clear where to commit resources, there should be plenty of competition!

[Bill Koehler]

Originally Posted by Dave Blackhurst

Bill -
You're right on with reason #4, I'm "ready" when the price is there and I don't have to worry about whether I bet on the wrong horse.

As much as people complain about price, I personally believe the greater consideration is the betting on a wrong horse.

Especially for Content Creators where the justification of making money rules vs. the common Joe where it's a I want it but don't actually need it.

[Larry Price]

Resistance is futile...


Sorry! Couldn't resist! ;-)

[Bill Koehler]

How does this compare to NMEs' announcements folks?

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=10240

[Jim Boda]

Hot off the press from the Zombie HD disk format...

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080110/lath066.html?.v=101

"Global HD VMD Day" http://www.nmestore.com/hdvmd/
January 22nd 2008 at VDL-ODMS in Eindhoven, The Netherlands

NME will showcase the world's first ever commercial 'Multilayer' HD VMD replication line to both the entertainment and optical disc industries and press. The event will be a celebration of the HD VMD format and will provide industry and press with worldwide updates of recent milestones. NME will also take this opportunity to announce some of its new partnerships.

I'm curious to know more about those "partnerships".

NME's recently aquired chairman of the board is a man named Michael J. Solomon...who happened to once be the President of Warner Bros. International Television (1989 through 1994). Under his leadership, Warner Bros. became the largest distribution company in the world.

It remains to be seen if such a man a great connections can actually produce meaningful partnerships.

Obviously, on Global HD VMD day they will try to make a strong pitch for the VMD disk to become the next generation of DVD. One thought ....for discussion purposes... HD VMD could theoretically work in any and ALL HD players. Both Blu-ray and HD DVD have a red laser optical head for reading standard DVD. Would it not take much more than a firmware upgrade for HD VMD to become a universal format?

[Bill Koehler]

Originally Posted by Jim Boda

Hot off the press from the Zombie HD disk format...

One thought ....for discussion purposes... HD VMD could theoretically work in any and ALL HD players. Both Blu-ray and HD DVD have a red laser optical head for reading standard DVD. Would it not take much more than a firmware upgrade for HD VMD to become a universal format?

You are probably correct that it would not take much more than a firmware upgrade.
On the other hand, it is in neither the interest of the HD-DVD consortium, much less the BluRay Group, to release a firmware update supporting a rival high definition format.

And...how does HD VMD compete as HD-DVD, with more current content, drops even lower in price?

[Jim Boda]

Originally Posted by Bill Koehler

You are probably correct that it would not take much more than a firmware upgrade.
On the other hand, it is in neither the interest of the HD-DVD consortium, much less the BluRay Group, to release a firmware update supporting a rival high definition format.

Exactly. Greedy Sony would never permit a next generation affordable media to play in their machines. Yet, I'm sure that the studios and consumers would love a universal disk media that would play HD 1080p w/ VC1 & .264 codecs.

And...how does HD VMD compete as HD-DVD, with more current content, drops even lower in price?

I've been watching this company for about a year...since someone else made an original post about the disk technology on this message board. This place is certainly a good resource for what is new.

Anyway, I don't think their plan was to ever directly compete...but, to find a partner to merge with...that would be the only way to meet their goal of "mass adoption" for the format.

Not to try to start any false rumors, but...it would make alot of sense for Toshiba and NME to get together. Toshiba could get their HD VMD players (red laser only) to market for the masses at a much cheaper price than this (NME) Nevada corp penny stock company w/ very little resourses. Come to think of it...it's quite amazing that this company with so little resources has brought out an HD product for under $200.

NME could install their technology on the HD DVD and get them to 60 gigs of storage before Warner Bros. discontinues the format (May 2008).

[Bill Koehler]

Originally Posted by Jim Boda

Exactly. Greedy Sony would never permit a next generation affordable media to play in their machines.

Greedy Sony...or any other manufacturer, BluRay or HD-DVD, who would then be looking at the value of their IP going right to zero.

Originally Posted by Jim Boda

Anyway, I don't think their plan was to ever directly compete...

Let me see, we've been watching the two sides play a game of one upmanship for the past 2+ years. Have you ever tried telling them their plan was never to directly compete? That loud thud you hear is of jaws hitting the floor in shock at the suggestion.

Originally Posted by Jim Boda

Not to try to start any false rumors, but...it would make alot of sense for Toshiba and NME to get together. NME could install their technology on the HD DVD and get them to 60 gigs of storage before Warner Bros. discontinues the format (May 2008).

I think it would make even more sense for Toshiba to wait for them to go bust and then buy up their assets for a song, assuming this has a chance.

Meanwhile, a six month clock is ticking till Warners decision to go BluRay exclusive goes 'live', with a bunch of other players following close behind.

In my opinion, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.
And for Content Creators, which is what this site is about, the #1 issue is NOT whether Sony, or anyone else, makes a killing.

The #1 Issue is what will THE STANDARD for a HD format be?
The #2 Issue is when will THAT STANDARD hit critical mass and take off?

The last thing these folks need is to have to possibly buy multiple sets of hardware to support multiple HD standards. They want ONE STANDARD to produce content to, that will play in just about anybodies HD player.

And the faster they can get there, the better.

My dislike of HD-VMD has nothing to do with having something against BluRay, HD-DVD, Sony, Toshiba, or even NME.

It has everything to do with:
1. Marketing. They are a couple years late and several dollars short. Aside from folks following forums like this, nobody has ever heard of them. And world + dog can outspend them by large multiples when it comes to either TV or print advertising.

2. Market confusion. There are zillions of people already pulling their hair out with two HD standards. A third makes nobodies life easier, with the possible exception of the folks at NME.

3. Content. It doesn't help that when it comes to content, theirs is anything but current. Until you get current content, you can kiss off most peoples interest in this.

4. Storage. BluRay starts at 25 GB (Single Layer), 50 GB (Dual Layer). Drives and media already available, even if you don't like the price, with announcements to scale up to 200 GB.

With those things working against HD-VMD, what point of leverage does it have working for it? The only one I see is price of the player, with Toshiba already demonstrating they can go lower than that.

[Jim Boda]

Originally Posted by Bill Koehler

...Let me see, we've been watching the two sides play a game of one upmanship for the past 2+ years. Have you ever tried telling them their plan was never to directly compete? That loud thud you hear is of jaws hitting the floor in shock at the suggestion.

That's a bit dramatic. I thought for the past 2+ years NME has been trying to get their product to market...which is what this thread is about. I'm not sure where you are seeing the "one upmanship". It's pretty hard to do that when you don't even have a product for sale. Now they finally have product. From every interview I've heard, their plan is to produce a Blue ray product when it is more viable for the masses. The implication is clear that they hope to use their multi-layer technology for one or both of the Blue ray formats.

...The last thing these folks need is to have to possibly buy multiple sets of hardware to support multiple HD standards. They want ONE STANDARD to produce content to, that will play in just about anybodies HD player.

And the faster they can get there, the better.

Right now...they want DVD. DVD is the clear content winner that remains the standard.

2007 Breakdown of 23.8 billion dollar industry:

16 Billion = DVD
300 million (1 % of market ) = Bluray & HD DVD
7.5 = DVD rental

http://real-us.news.yahoo.com/s/nm/2...edia_nm/dvd_dc
http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/11012.cfm

My dislike of HD-VMD has nothing to do with having something against BluRay, HD-DVD, Sony, Toshiba, or even NME.

It has everything to do with:
1. Marketing. They are a couple years late and several dollars short. Aside from folks following forums like this, nobody has ever heard of them. And world + dog can outspend them by large multiples when it comes to either TV or print advertising.

Do you really have that high opinion of BluRays marketing? I guess they have done an incredible job in capturing less than 1% of the home entertainment market. Standard DVD sold 2 million players in 2007.

2. Market confusion. There are zillions of people already pulling their hair out with two HD standards. A third makes nobodies life easier, with the possible exception of the folks at NME.

Again this seems a bit dramatic to me. I can't relate to the pulling out your hair comment. Isn't it amazing how the confusion seems to disapear when an inexpensive HD player hits the market? HD DVD's 720p machine was selling like hotcakes when they offered that special christmas deal through Walmart.

Just maybe...we consumers aren't quite as dumb as the power brokers think we are.

3. Content. It doesn't help that when it comes to content, theirs is anything but current. Until you get current content, you can kiss off most peoples interest in this.

Content is certainly a problem. I wish Hollywood would make better films. I believe that "Transformers" was the top dog last year in HD. I certainly wouldn't pay a premium price to own that movie. Definitely a good rental though.

4. Storage. BluRay starts at 25 GB (Single Layer), 50 GB (Dual Layer). Drives and media already available, even if you don't like the price, with announcements to scale up to 200 GB.

Unfortunately, both Sony & Toshiba have never demonstrated a good product beyond 2 layers outside of the laboratory. If they could have made a multilayer red laser disk...they would have. They will likely need a proven technology.

With those things working against HD-VMD, what point of leverage does it have working for it? The only one I see is price of the player, with Toshiba already demonstrating they can go lower than that.

The replication line is a huge plus for HD VMD. The potential to produce a 1080p disk for all HD players would be a plus. And obviously, the low cost makes it affordable for the rest of the world.

Toshiba is doing a great job at getting their price down. I doubt they are making any money...but, to get there 1080p model at $200. is definitely a great deal.

HD VMD is just starting at $200 w/ the first generation model. It's certainly not a stretch to expect the next generation model to be half of that...for 1080p and 24 gigs of storage.