So what's next?

[Kris Zimbelman]

Would anyone care to speculate as to what the next great camcorder will be and who will bring it out? I'm talking about something along the lines of an EX1 (which is not been upgraded in some time), but with greater cinema capabilities. Hopefully for less than $10,000. I know that Panasonic has had a lot of success with their HPX 250 model. Is this the reason why we have not seen more development in the half inch chip area?

[Les Wilson]

You just missed it. Sony came out with the super slow-mo upgradable to 4K FS700. Then there's the Black Magic & the PMW-F3 w/SLOG.

Or did you mean just ENG types?

[Kris Zimbelman]

"Or did you mean just ENG types? "
ENG that could approximate, but not duplicate the cinematic look of the camcorders your mentioned.

[Lee Mullen]

I doubt the manufactureres will ever give the consumers what they really want.

[Tim Polster]

That is a good question. I think the outcome depends upon who is willing to "go there". Canon showed us that they are not prepared to go there for under $15,000.

Black Magic could really change things if they come out with an APS-C sensor with 60p and RAW for under $10,000 or even closer to $5,000. The speed of computers might be the wild card as a lot of expense surrounds codecs and power in the cameras. Passing all of the processing down the line really allows lowers costs and non-industry players to create products.

If the big three do not come out with RAW processing for video they might be in a bit of a pinch. For so long codecs have been the way for the camera makers to draw a line between their lower and higher lines. Once RAW is out there all of the cameras will be at the top. The pace of change has become very fast and the risk of being passed by is real.

I my opinion, makers of cameras are in a tough spot. 4k sounds cool but in reality will not drive large sales for quite a few years, if ever. Once they make the next round of 1080p cameras, the image quality will be so good that people will stay with those cameras. So the next ten years seem like they hold a new business model for the manufacturers because new cameras every year or two will not be needed.

Think about it. If an AF-200 came out with tack sharp 1080p , better codec and other improvements, would you need to look forward to the AF-300? Same thing with the XF300. If Canon could get an extra stop of light gathering on the XF400, I would not yearn for the XF500.

[Les Wilson]

@Jalan, Manufacturers are not Santa Claus. They make things enough people will buy to cover the costs of inventing it, figuring out how to build it at a cost low enough, buying, shipping, making the parts, assembling it, marketing it etc plus some extra to get the next thing going.

@Tim et al
This same lament about the FS-700 not being an ENG camera is in this 3 page thread in case anyone haven't seen it:
http://www.dvinfo.net/forum/sony-nxc...rgonomics.html

[Tim Polster]

Les, I do not see any connection to that thread? No lamenting in my comments, just remarking on what I see as coming in the next ten years...

[Les Wilson]

Apologies Tim, I didn't mean to imply you had a lament

The connection I saw is an oft repeated lament that an ENG camera hasn't come out in quite a while and it's usually connected with hand wringing about manufacturers not putting a large sensor in an ENG form factor. I think your post nicely points at some of the upcoming waves of innovation. Right now, large sensors are going into Cinema cameras. Raw and 4K are natural things for Cinema cameras. My sense is that there are things about single large sensor cameras and full ENG requirements that prohibit their use (financial or technical or IQ...). The first argument seems to be the cost or even impossibility of a proper ENG lens capable of covering an S35 sensor, fast, motorized 18x zoom ... moire and aliasing of Bayer filter issues also follow. At least that's my perception of how the discussion goes over and over.

I have nothing to substantiate it but sometimes I think there is a limit that's been reached for 3-chip cameras. Canon chose to stop at 1/3". Sony went with 1/2" and the full sized ENG cameras go up to 2/3" 3-chip designs. After moving to CMOS from CCDand Tape to SSD/Optical, it's pretty much stopped with these issues of fast, affordable ENG zoom lenses. It will be interesting to see the next step in ENG.

[Tim Polster]

Thanks. I agree that a limit of some sort has been reached. In many ways it is a visual & financial limit. In simple terms, it is not worth it financially to spend up to improve upon 1080p or even 720p. The average viewer is very happy with HD and many are just getting HD in their homes. The R&D costs would not be made back so easily as well as broadcast infrastructure expense would not be welcomed either.

The Cinema folks want 4k but that is more of a specialy area. We will still be delivering on DVD ten years from now...sadly!

[Mike Marriage]

Originally Posted by Les Wilson

This same lament about the FS-700 not being an ENG camera is in this 3 page thread in case anyone haven't seen it:
http://www.dvinfo.net/forum/sony-nxc...rgonomics.html

As the starter of that thread, I think that is a slight misrepresentation. I wasn't complaining that the camera wasn't suitable for ENG use. It is the wrong tool for that job and personally I don't shoot ENG. My complaint was that the camera's ergonomics were poorly conceived and that issues exist with the design that made me decide not to buy.

Applying that to this thread, I hope to see manufacturers refocus on ergonomics and design with the next generation of cameras. The electronics are reaching a stage where there is little to choose between models image wise and the larger differences are in workflow and layout/design. I would hope to see a range of cameras from full size shoulder mount to compact handhelds offering a range of workflows.

Multiple workflows in one camera would be an interesting move, like we already see with DSLRs offering RAW and JPEG. 50Mbps MPEG2, Prores and RAW all in one body would make a camera very versatile. Maybe modular add ons would be a better approach but I prefer internal recording compared to external solutions.

I think the FS700 will also start a trend for increased frame rates - it is a major selling point!

[Les Wilson]

Originally Posted by Mike Marriage

...ergonomics are a crucial part of how effectively and quickly you can shoot with a camera

I find it mind-boggling that JVC chose to update the ProHD line with full HD chips and then combined that overdue move with ergonomics/form factor that apes the XF305 and other similar over-sized palmcorders. The JVC line was just about the only lower cost pro camera that had sensible ergonomics... I understand the desire for light weight compared to, say, older DigiBeta and DVCAM ENG products but surely this excellent new sensor, processor and memory technology can be installed in a body that we can use on a real-world shoot ... Will one of you please build a real large sensor (m4/3 at least, S35 preferable and full frame in my dreams), shoulder mounted interchangeable lens camcorder with ... No more palmcorders with XLR inputs, still cameras masquerading as video cameras, or bizarre bricks with "viewfinders" on top, please.

Mike the topic came up even tho you don't shoot ENG and didn't say ENG. The above are just a couple things from the first page of the thread.

There isn't good ergonomics for all. Others in that thread defended the ergonomics of the FS-700 as being good for a cinema camera. You disagree but that doesn't mean Sony (in this case) ignored ergonomics.