Blue Ray-but For How Long at DVinfo.net

Greg Harris · August 22nd, 2007, 12:40 PM

Ok well I'm hearing rumors that Blue Ray is pointless due to yet another format coming out (I DONT KNOW WHEN). Is this true? I wouldn't think this could be true for another 6-10 years.

Daniel Browning · August 22nd, 2007, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg Harris

Ok well I'm hearing rumors that Blue Ray is pointless due to yet another format coming out (I DONT KNOW WHEN). Is this true? I wouldn't think this could be true for another 6-10 years.

That's old news. The new Blu-Ray killer is nothing compared to the NEXT big thing that's coming out; it's going to make the Blu-Ray killer pointless!

Don't forget, of course, that while rumors are fun sometimes, don't let them sneak into your decision making process. That should be reserved for cold, hard facts.

Theodore McNeil · August 26th, 2007, 11:01 AM

I think the next thing may be UHD. But then again, it may not.

The best advice I've ever read about buying new technology was from Scott Billups's book "Digital Moviemaking."

His advice on when you buy a new camera? Buy one when you need one.

Do you need a blu-ray player? Be honest. If the answer is yes, then buy one. If the answer is no, then don't buy one.

And this works with every new gadget.

Greg Harris · August 29th, 2007, 06:13 AM

cool, yeah I most def will need one buy xmas time. So do you think 5 or 10 years for the step up?

Theodore McNeil · September 2nd, 2007, 12:19 PM

"So do you think 5 or 10 years for the step up?"

The only way I know to answer this question is to refer you to an Oscar winning tune sung by Doris Day:

Que Sera, Sera,
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que Sera, Sera
What will be, will be.

Tim OBrien · September 5th, 2007, 12:56 PM

Basic Rule: EVERYTHING in the computer world is an antique after 18-24 months...

Daniel Browning · September 5th, 2007, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim OBrien

Basic Rule: EVERYTHING in the computer world is an antique after 18-24 months...

Things last a little longer in the A/V world. VHS died very slowly, and it appears that red-laser DVD will last even longer. If there hadn't been foolish incompatibility for blue-laser units, the uptake would have been much faster. I digress.

Jim Andrada · September 9th, 2007, 11:17 PM

I think it's safe to say that there is noting imminent to replace Blu-ray or HD-DVD. Lot of ideas, concepts, etc, but nothing in the next few years.

I'm not a DVD format expert, but one of my close friends in Tokyo was the VP responsible for DVD development at one of the major Japanese players in the DVD business and I asked him the same question a few weeks back. The above sums up his comment.

Kevin Shaw · September 10th, 2007, 07:45 AM

The most imminent threat to either of the established HD disc formats would be some form of internet-based distribution, plus the possibility that neither disc format will get very far because consumers are disgusted with the conflict between them. But in terms of an actual replacement for Blu-ray in a similar disc-based format, that's unlikely any time soon given all the money being pumped into the current formats - there's no evidence the movie studios are already looking forward to yet another format!

Konrad Haskins · September 17th, 2007, 08:33 PM

The next killer disc will be hologram technology but it has way more capacity than Hollywood needs. The sales race was being won by Sony in a big way until HD-DVD folks dropped $150,000,000.00 to get more movies out on HD-DVD.

Jim Andrada · September 17th, 2007, 10:18 PM

Interestingly, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are developed by the same company now.

Sony of course was the leader of the Blu-Ray camp, and NEC and Toshiba were the main proponents of HD-DVD.

Sony and NEC have both spun their DVD businesses off into a joint venture company which is 55% owned by Sony and 45% owned by NEC. The betting in Japan was that this meant the slow agonizing death of HD-DVD, but so far it isn't clear that that's what's happening - despite the best efforts of the majority owner of the joint venture!

Re Holographic - I wouldn't hold my breath. In-Phase started shipping some units earlier this year (or maybe late last year) but I don't think they're ready to challenge the DVD guys any time soon. Also not clear how long it would be before you'd be able to get a low cost holographic drive into a PC. I went to a couple of technology presentations on holographic this year and last year. Fascinating technology.

The really "fun" technology, though, might be the "millipede" technology that has been developed primarily at IBM's Zurich research laboratory. Little pointy probes driven up and down by piezoelectricity and tapping on the recording surface like the tips of little scanning electron microscopes. I think they were talking a terabyte or so in a 9 mm square chip as a starting point. I also wouldn't hold my breath waiting for this to show up at a PC shop near you.

And you're right on when you mention the issue of what on earth the movie guys would find to put on these technologies - maybe MGM's total film output for 2 years on one disk. Shouldn't cost more than $5,000 each at Wal-Mart:<))

Kevin Shaw · September 26th, 2007, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Konrad Haskins

The sales race was being won by Sony in a big way until HD-DVD folks dropped $150,000,000.00 to get more movies out on HD-DVD.

Specifically, the HD-DVD consortium shelled out $150M to convince two movie studios to use HD-DVD exclusively for their HD content for the next 18 months. In other words, they had to pay the studios to use HD-DVD, and you can guess what will happen the moment that agreement expires. As far as I know Blu-ray movie discs are still outselling HD-DVD by a ratio of 2:1 overall in spite of events like this and the lower price of entry-level HD-DVD players. So either few people are buying those cheap players or the people who are buying them aren't buying many HD-DVD movies, and either way that doesn't bode well for the HD-DVD format.

DVD players have only been around for ten years and have only been pervasive for about five, but we've gotten good use out of that technology. Blu-ray is the next standard movie delivery medium and should be good for at least five years or so before internet/VOD delivery of movies takes over.

Bogdan Tyburczy · September 27th, 2007, 12:06 AM

Another five years sounds like the end of 2012. Who knows what will happen then, especially between Dec 21st and 23rd... :-|

Jim Andrada · September 27th, 2007, 12:15 AM

Yup,

There's a great saying in Japanese that translates as "Say "Tomorrow" and the Devil laughs"

Must be a lot of laughing devils in the technology business.

Konrad Haskins · November 14th, 2007, 08:45 AM

Here is the exact numbers of HD-DVD v. Blu-Ray Disc Sales
http://www.engadgethd.com/tag/VideoScan/
If there is not a big boost from th 90,000 Toshiba A2's sold in one weekend or the A-3 for $169 at Sears on Black Friday is it because of Upsampling. The claim is (I'll find out when my A-3 arrives) that SD DVDs look much better when played in the entry level Toshiba. If that's true it may hurt sales of HD-DVD disks.

August 22nd, 2007, 12:40 PM	#1
Greg Harris Major Player Join Date: May 2004 Location: Fairfax, VA Posts: 356	Blue Ray-but For How Long Ok well I'm hearing rumors that Blue Ray is pointless due to yet another format coming out (I DONT KNOW WHEN). Is this true? I wouldn't think this could be true for another 6-10 years.

August 26th, 2007, 11:01 AM	#3
Theodore McNeil Major Player Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Centreville, Maryland Posts: 258	I think the next thing may be UHD. But then again, it may not. The best advice I've ever read about buying new technology was from Scott Billups's book "Digital Moviemaking." His advice on when you buy a new camera? Buy one when you need one. Do you need a blu-ray player? Be honest. If the answer is yes, then buy one. If the answer is no, then don't buy one. And this works with every new gadget. __________________ http://twitter.com/tedmcneil

September 2nd, 2007, 12:19 PM	#5
Theodore McNeil Major Player Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Centreville, Maryland Posts: 258	"So do you think 5 or 10 years for the step up?" The only way I know to answer this question is to refer you to an Oscar winning tune sung by Doris Day: Que Sera, Sera, Whatever will be, will be The future's not ours to see Que Sera, Sera What will be, will be. __________________ http://twitter.com/tedmcneil

August 29th, 2007, 06:13 AM	#4
Greg Harris Major Player Join Date: May 2004 Location: Fairfax, VA Posts: 356	cool, yeah I most def will need one buy xmas time. So do you think 5 or 10 years for the step up?

September 5th, 2007, 12:56 PM	#6
Tim OBrien Regular Crew Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Palm Beach, Florida USA Posts: 99	Basic Rule: EVERYTHING in the computer world is an antique after 18-24 months...

September 9th, 2007, 11:17 PM	#8
Jim Andrada Inner Circle Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Tucson AZ Posts: 2,211	I think it's safe to say that there is noting imminent to replace Blu-ray or HD-DVD. Lot of ideas, concepts, etc, but nothing in the next few years. I'm not a DVD format expert, but one of my close friends in Tokyo was the VP responsible for DVD development at one of the major Japanese players in the DVD business and I asked him the same question a few weeks back. The above sums up his comment.

September 10th, 2007, 07:45 AM	#9
Kevin Shaw Inner Circle Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Sacramento, CA Posts: 2,488	The most imminent threat to either of the established HD disc formats would be some form of internet-based distribution, plus the possibility that neither disc format will get very far because consumers are disgusted with the conflict between them. But in terms of an actual replacement for Blu-ray in a similar disc-based format, that's unlikely any time soon given all the money being pumped into the current formats - there's no evidence the movie studios are already looking forward to yet another format!

September 17th, 2007, 08:33 PM	#10
Konrad Haskins Regular Crew Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 148	The next killer disc will be hologram technology but it has way more capacity than Hollywood needs. The sales race was being won by Sony in a big way until HD-DVD folks dropped $150,000,000.00 to get more movies out on HD-DVD.

September 17th, 2007, 10:18 PM	#11
Jim Andrada Inner Circle Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Tucson AZ Posts: 2,211	Interestingly, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are developed by the same company now. Sony of course was the leader of the Blu-Ray camp, and NEC and Toshiba were the main proponents of HD-DVD. Sony and NEC have both spun their DVD businesses off into a joint venture company which is 55% owned by Sony and 45% owned by NEC. The betting in Japan was that this meant the slow agonizing death of HD-DVD, but so far it isn't clear that that's what's happening - despite the best efforts of the majority owner of the joint venture! Re Holographic - I wouldn't hold my breath. In-Phase started shipping some units earlier this year (or maybe late last year) but I don't think they're ready to challenge the DVD guys any time soon. Also not clear how long it would be before you'd be able to get a low cost holographic drive into a PC. I went to a couple of technology presentations on holographic this year and last year. Fascinating technology. The really "fun" technology, though, might be the "millipede" technology that has been developed primarily at IBM's Zurich research laboratory. Little pointy probes driven up and down by piezoelectricity and tapping on the recording surface like the tips of little scanning electron microscopes. I think they were talking a terabyte or so in a 9 mm square chip as a starting point. I also wouldn't hold my breath waiting for this to show up at a PC shop near you. And you're right on when you mention the issue of what on earth the movie guys would find to put on these technologies - maybe MGM's total film output for 2 years on one disk. Shouldn't cost more than $5,000 each at Wal-Mart:<))

September 27th, 2007, 12:06 AM	#13
Bogdan Tyburczy Regular Crew Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Brooklyn Posts: 161	Another five years sounds like the end of 2012. Who knows what will happen then, especially between Dec 21st and 23rd... :-\|

September 27th, 2007, 12:15 AM	#14
Jim Andrada Inner Circle Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Tucson AZ Posts: 2,211	Yup, There's a great saying in Japanese that translates as "Say "Tomorrow" and the Devil laughs" Must be a lot of laughing devils in the technology business.

November 14th, 2007, 08:45 AM	#15
Konrad Haskins Regular Crew Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 148	Here is the exact numbers of HD-DVD v. Blu-Ray Disc Sales http://www.engadgethd.com/tag/VideoScan/ If there is not a big boost from th 90,000 Toshiba A2's sold in one weekend or the A-3 for $169 at Sears on Black Friday is it because of Upsampling. The claim is (I'll find out when my A-3 arrives) that SD DVDs look much better when played in the entry level Toshiba. If that's true it may hurt sales of HD-DVD disks.