by the time prosumer models come out, media prices wont be an issue.. jsut look at how cheap solid state memory ahs become over the last 6 months.. its just gonna get cheaper

That's tautological. I mean, all media is constantly getting less expensive and denser and faster an so on. But I don't think that in the next five years there is any chance of solid state being less expensive than hard disk or even optical. Which is why I advocate that a hard disk should work in the P2 slot. It is also the reason why Sony's choice of optical media for their high-end SD offerings has been quite clever.

I have been hearing about solid state's promising future for about ten years!

In my opinion, price for 8GB P2 will drop to ~800-1000$ very soon. Let's see - now street price for 1GB card is $75 and for 2GB about $210 (here in Moscow, Russia). I don't think that combining four SD's in one array really costs more than $100 - so panny will lower the price, otherwise others memory makers will do - and will take all cream from a pie.

... and hopefully, that's exactly what will happen. Using an open technology like PCMCIA for the card's form factor means that it's likely other manufacturers will be able to offer cards as well (hopefully, at least). Competition leads to innovation and lower prices.

"Competition leads to innovation and lower prices."

Well said, and exactly right.

It's this same competition that led to 24P on the DVX, the true 16:9 on the XL2, the HDV recording of the Z1, and now the solid state recording of the HDX.

This same competition will lead to quantum leaps in solid state memory, and significant price drops.

This is how capitalism works, and how it has always worked.
There is no reason to believe this case will be different.

I for one am looking forward to it!

I look forward to it to. But I look forward to it when it's affordable.

This is the catch 22. On the one hand I am fed up of the yahoo's going over the top in enthusiasm for new technology, but at the same time I realise that new tech needs pioneers to take it on board for it to be successful.

If P2 and an equivilent to the SDX900 comes along (well strictly speaking there already is, but lets just refer to P2 prices here) I'll consider it if the XDCAM isn't making inroads that way. But I need something I can buy more of if neccesary.

Jan says that P2 isn't an archive format, but I still need to have the option of buying more storage easily without having to take out a a 5th mortage! ;-)

So in theory I am all for P2. But I want it to be real, ie affordable, TRULY affordable before I buy into it. Jan, then you will have my custom.

<<<-- Originally posted by Simon Wyndham :
Jan says that P2 isn't an archive format,

It isn't it is memory.

but I still need to have the option of buying more storage easily without having to take out a a 5th mortage! ;-)

Hey for the price of that Blue-ray disk which is the price of the Blue Laser disk that you have for XDCAM, those are not the cost of a next mortgage. But there are other archive solutions that are even cheaper.

>So in theory I am all for P2. But I want it to be real, ie affordable, TRULY affordable before I buy into it. Jan, then you will have my custom.

Then time will tell.

Best regards,

Jan

Now, please correct me if I'm wrong as I know almost nothing about P2, but wouldn't you also save some $$ by going P2 simply because you wouldn't need another deck for capture. I'm talking about people who don't already have a deck (me) of course.

So you'd save yourself what, a few grand? That sounds good to me and I could spend it on P2 cards.

Am I correct in this thinking?

Aaron

Yes, you would be correct in saying that. But then I don't really need a deck with XDCAM either.

See, I love the idea of P2, really I do. It's pretty much instantaneous, and I love the idea of doing that. However for long form projects, things that require a lot of coverage I'm not sure i want to be lugging around more equipment to copy the cards too every so often. I might as well just record to a HD straight.

Part of the advantage of P2 is it's size, but that is negated by having to have something to dump the footage to during a hotswap.

To me P2 is something that shows huge promise for the future when the prices come down, but not at the moment.

Jan, I don't really use XDCAM as archive. But the option is there. The main thng for me is that it's no problem for me to pay for a disc. The client pays for stock, so it's no problem. P2 is another matter. If it's short form, say a day's shoot on something simple P2 would be great, no problem. But for long form where dumping the footage is not practical in some situations it's not. And this is simply a matter of price, not a limitation of the format. If I could afford to buy more cards it wouldn't be a problem. To me if I need a laptop to dump to I might as well record to a HD to begin with.

Now we are talking about prosumer gear. This isn't the broadcast world. So P2 afforability needs to become reality for it to become truly popular. I've no doubt that it will eventually. But not just yet.