http://cinescape.com/0/editorial.asp?aff_id=0&this_cat=Video+%26+DVD&action=page&type_id=&cat_id=270352&obj_id=50636

heath

Interesting comments that follows by adverage consumers:

... it's too expensive..

..I'm happy with DVD's...

...I'll wait out the [format] war and see who wins... etc.

I'm wondering if the price margin between these disks and using hard drives as video storage is narrowing. HDD's are getting cheaper, and compounded with the cost in time to render/burn.. are they worth it? Hmmm.

Yes I found the comments amusing as well. One guy thinks you need a $4000 HDTV to be able to see a differance. There definately a differant view from the uneducated consumer as to this whole HD thing. I believe standard DVD will be king for years to come, especially as high quality 24p anamorphic becomes the standard as people upgrade their sets. My biggest intrest in HD DVD's comes from the ability to archive data. We know with Sony's desire to lock-down DVD copying Blue-ray blanks will be very expensive. I want cheap blanks for archiving. In 5 years when it starts to saturate home intertainment, it will be easy to pick who the winner is.

I think the bigger issue is how expensive the Blue Ray players will be.

I have to agree with Ken in that DVD will be king for years to come. I think what needs improvement are DVD players - I've watched standard DVD's on a huge projector at a friends house and the quality was outstanding, you'd think it's HD. The secret? Play them using PowerDVD through a computer.

Standard DVD players just can't compete. My projector is attached to one of these and it just isn't the same: composite out and no image processing sucks.

With PC you use DVI-D or VGA and you're a go to an awesome hometheater system.

I was expecting a worse price difference. It really ain't that bad. Considering it's from Sony, is an entirely new format, and is three times larger in capacity.

Apparently, there is a high percentage of consumers buying HDTV sets, plugging them into SD sources, hating the "quality" of their brand new set, then returning it. Most likely due to the fact that they don't realize they need HD services to see a difference and are impressed by the HD demo reels being shown in av superstores.

As for me, i'll be happy with a 720p widescreen projector for years to come.

I
Apparently, there is a high percentage of consumers buying HDTV sets, plugging them into SD sources, hating the "quality" of their brand new set, then returning it. Most likely due to the fact that they don't realize they need HD services to see a difference and are impressed by the HD demo reels being shown in av superstores.

.

I don't know about the "high percentage" but there is indeed a percentage, due to this very factor.
However, I don't think DVD will last another 5 years, with the DTV initiative looming and not retractable, with ESPN and Fox, ABC, NBC, CBS all stepping up their marketing of high def, aggressive marketing plans from Sony, Toshiba, and all the BD consortium...I suspect we'll see serious saturation in 2 years or so, and completely overtaken in 36-45 months. It didn't take DVD anywhere near 5 years to replace VHS in the masses, and that was without pressure from the networks to move to HD. I suspect once we see BD players in the Best Buys of the world so that folks don't think they're limited to a couple dozen HD channels, that alone will be a huge kickoff.
Either way, CES is predicting 36 months at the outside, and while I believe that's a tad aggressive, it certainly seems quite doable.

Regarding consumers not knowing what's going on, I'll put forth the same challenge I've put up in a lot of forums. Go to your local Best Buy or Circuit City. Play stupid. Plan on spending at least 60 minutes, and then plan on returning later in the day. Or, do it at Costco. Talk to people, ask questions as tho you know nothing. You'll be surprised at the answers you get. It's amusing that folks on the "inside" of the production industry think that consumers are uneducated. They're not. They're doing their research. Spend a couple hours this weekend and find out for yourself.

I think the PS3 will be the big factor in this - when it ships sometime this year (maybe spring, maybe later?) there will suddenly be a million more Blu-ray players out there in a week's time. That's just not going to happen, not that fast, with either HD-DVD or stand alone Blu-ray players. People will buy the PS3 to play games and in the process create a much larger market for Blu-ray movies.

Look at what happened with the PS2 - DVD players were on the market for 3 years before the PS2 shipped, but when the PS2 shipped it sold almost as many units for the first couple years as standalone DVD players did, essentially doubling the potential market for DVDs.

Neither HD-DVD nor Blu-ray will have been on the market (at least in the US) for more than a few months before the PS3 arrives. Approximately 300k DVD players sold in the first year they were on the market. Assuming HD-DVD and Blu-ray follow a similar adoption curve we can expect them each to sell no more than about 200k units this year (maybe less if people are unsure which format to go with). PS2 sold 500k consoles in it's first 24 hours, and several million by years end despite major shortages. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect similar sales of the PS3 if Sony can build them fast enough. So taking that into account there should be several million Blu-ray capable players vs. a few hundred thousand HD-DVD by years end - easily a 10-1 or greater difference.

If you were a studio trying to decide which format to release on in time for the holiday season, which would you choose? The one with a few hundred thousand customers, or a few million? I bet we'll see a lot more titles on the shelves next year in Blu-ray.

If you are a consumer considering buying a player next christmas, which one would you buy? The one with the larger number of available titles - especially considering there's no other real differentiator between the two as far as playback is concerned.

when can we expect an official price on blu-ray storage discs?

When HD DVD becomes available, does anyone know what format will be needed to generate our own HD-DVD or Blu-ray?

Will it be a H.264, m2t, or some other HD format?

When HD DVD becomes available, does anyone know what format will be needed to generate our own HD-DVD or Blu-ray?

Will it be a H.264, m2t, or some other HD format?
IIRC H.264, MPEG-2, and VC-1 (MS's codec) are the three options for encoding hi def DVDs.

HD is coming and there's no stopping it, but I don't think next gen DVDs are gonna have anywhere close to the same impact that SD DVDs did. The jump from VHS to DVD was huge for a number of reasons while the move from SD DVDs to Hi Def DVDs is more like a step, not a jump. The biggest difference (a/v quality) is something that typically has not been #1 on consumers lists of wants ("good enough" should be Joe Six-pack's middle name). Why did CDs replace records? Why did LaserDisc fail? Why are 128k MP3s so popular? Why is more and more video content being added to the iTunes Music Store? Next gen DVDs will come out and people will buy them but by the time they start really hitting the mainstream I think the format will already be on its way out.


-A

Just a gentle reminder, folks...
This thread is about pricing of HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. If you want to start a thread about why one or the other is better, worse, or needed at all, that's fine.

Tony, there already is an official price out there, as referenced in the first Post. Sony isn't announcing a reseller/retail price, and that press release states why.

Thanks for the reminder, Spot. I can start a new thread, or one of the other users can, about the topic.

heath

Just a gentle reminder, folks...
This thread is about pricing of HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. If you want to start a thread about why one or the other is better, worse, or needed at all, that's fine.

Tony, there already is an official price out there, as referenced in the first Post. Sony isn't announcing a reseller/retail price, and that press release states why.

Oops. My apologies for straying.

Since Sony isn't giving an MSRP any guesses as to what the price might be at the local store?


-A

Most DVDs are suggested to sell, by the studios, etc., for around $29.99 and usually go for around $19.99 when not on sale. But that's today. I forget what a DVD cost me in late 1998 and early 1999.

hwm

Probably $30-40. I don't even want to think about what Criterion is going to charge.

Probably $30-40. I don't even want to think about what Criterion is going to charge.

Did you read the article I linked to? $30-40 is way over what Sony has said, according to Cinescape.com:

"The company will wholesale their titles for $17.95. New-release Blu-ray discs will wholesale for $23.45, a premium of 15%-20% over what suppliers were charging for new theatrical DVDs."

heath

We know what they will cost, a few $ more then the current tech, because they are new. Just the same as every other piece of consummer goods on the planet. Is this even relevant? What are we "home entertainment weekly"? Does anyone care that Big Momma 2 is going to be $3.99 more than the regular DVD? Please!

Lets ask something that might actually be relevant to us HDV users! Whats the cost of a burner, and whats the cost of a player and the cost of the BLANK medium?
I have heard that Blue-ray will be higher in $ in all catagories, especially blanks. Anyone know?

The burner at CES was anticipated at 1k or so, and the blanks have already got a set price of around $40.00. They're only useable in XDCAM tho, right now. They're also rewriteable.
Cost of a player *right now*? There isn't one.

Play Station3 will be the first player, and they're anticipated at a retail of $399.00, and consumer set tops showed at CES at a retail of around 1K.

This is considerably less than CD burners cost when they were first released, and still cheaper than DVD burners when they were first released. I'd anticipate we'll see prices drop by year end just as we did with DVD burners.

Any idea of the equivalent HD-DVD prices?

There isn't an "equivalent" because HD-DVD is significantly smaller, but the blank HD-DVD disks are expected to debut around $15.00. I'm sure we'll see those sub 10.00 by year end as well.
At CES, they said around $25.00, but that was before the BluRay retail price announcement on the home movie side of things. Since then, I've been hearing all sorts of price drops on HD DVD. Toshiba is fairly desperate to own the market, and have gotten very aggressive. I'm sure the BD consortium will respond somehow.

Prices will go down faster than DVD-Rs and burners did because of the use. Just the same as HDV will become a common standard faster than DV did.

heath

The burner at CES was anticipated at 1k or so, and the blanks have already got a set price of around $40.00. They're only useable in XDCAM tho, right now. They're also rewriteable.

Are these the discs which come in a cartridge? Are they removable from that cartridge? I wasn't clear on this from anything I've seen so far - will this turn out to be similar to the DVD-RAM/DVD-R situation?

I'm not really looking at Blue-Ray or HD-DVD to deliver content (that's something for the future). Putting WMV-HD (or another flavor of MPEG-4) on a standard DL DVD seems like the most compelling here and now, lost cost solution, at least to me.

The burner at CES was anticipated at 1k or so, and the blanks have already got a set price of around $40.00.

Thanks douglas, that's what i was fishing for. The first quote which you directed me back to was about feature films on blu-ray, not about blank (or as I called it, 'storage') media. I wasn't asking a question with an obvious answer, in my defense.

Just want to clear that up. I try to be somewhat thoughtful about my posts, but I appreciate being kept on my toes :-)

Prices will go down faster than DVD-Rs and burners did because of the use. Just the same as HDV will become a common standard faster than DV did.

heath

I would hope so. Recordable DVD cost a lot when it was introduced, but there was a grand total of one drive available at launch. BD and HD-DVD look to have several models each of drives as well as standalone decks in the pipeline. I know the prices are high to begin with because companies feel the need to recoup R&D costs immediately, but hopefully competition will quickly bring prices down from the stratosphere.

I agree. 8 gigabytes on a < $2 disk will hold a feature film and more. If only there was a dvd like menu system to make it look more like a dvd as far as glossyness.
-Les


I'm not really looking at Blue-Ray or HD-DVD to deliver content (that's something for the future). Putting WMV-HD (or another flavor of MPEG-4) on a standard DL DVD seems like the most compelling here and now, lost cost solution, at least to me.

I haven't tried it yet, or even read up on it either yet, but supposedly you can create menus with DivX that should work with DivX certified devices.