I have been thinking a lot about how HD will change over time,and have reached some interesting conclusions. Because of bandwidth problems, it seems unlikely to me that any standard larger than perhaps 1080 p60 will be used for TV in this country for the foreseeable future. Even 1080 p60 may be too data-rich for commerical TV, although I hope that it may come in as a standard in the future. Already, DirectTV and Dish have so heavily compressed their HD signals that it is easy to see artifacts on a good quality HD TV (I recently switched to cable after 10 years of Dish). In my area, over-the-air transmissions are the highest quality signals, followed closely by cable and distantly by the satellite services.

From the standpoint of content producers, TV folks will probably want the best quality cameras with 1080-native chips. Larger sensors and then down-sizing in post seems to give significantly lower quality results, although perhaps this can be improved in the future. For now, for TV, the 1080 native sensor seems to be the best bet. I currently have a Sony PMW-200 and am greatly impressed with the quality of each individual 1080 frame that is produced by this three 1/2" chip camera. Can a good native 1080 2/3" single-chip camera produce as good a picture as a three 1/2" chip camera, especially with regard to color quality ?

It sounds like, for the present, the cinema people will want the 4K sensor size for optimal quality. The necessary computer power for post-production is easily accessible by the larger oganizations, and most movie-goers' vision is probably inadequate to see much improvement with films shot at a higher resolution.

Comments / opinions ?

There's crossover with the Arri Alexa, the TV people using ProRes, while the cinema tending towards using RAW.

I suspect the Super16 single chip is more likely than 2/3" single chip in the longer term, the latter has an even smaller image size than regular 16. Also, you have to take on board if RAW is being recorded and to date the professional single chip 2/3 tend to use this. However, resolution tends to be the problem with them using 2k sensors, so Super16 sensor would assist in having at least a 2.5k to 2.7k sensor.