Motorola came out with the Atrix - an Android smartphone that becomes a desktop when docked, or a laptop when popped into it's laptop shell.

Video: A Closer Look at Motorola's Atrix 4G, a Smartphone/Desktop/Laptop Powerhouse | Popular Science (http://www.popsci.com/gadgets/article/2011-01/video-closer-look-motorolas-atrix-4g-smartphone-docks)

Is the cell phone going to replace our office computers?

Funny you should say this. I've been saying for the last couple of years that pretty soon our desktops and laptops are going to pretty much go away. I'm not talking about large offices where you have loads of people using them but personal use. With the smartphones being able to do what they do I know a few people that not only don't have landline phones but they don't have or at least use their desktops or laptops. The rise of technology ;-)

Of course, I sure wouldn't want to edit on one......

Agreed. That's why I specified 'our office computers'. Editing workhorses will stay around a little longer.

To continue the idea, I can see in the not-so-distant future the disappearance or all the existing TV programming distribution paths: over the air, cable, and satellite. Phone lines as we know them today will also become useless.

All the above will be replaced by the almighty INTERNET. In a first stage we might retain the wires, but eventually those will go too, we'll be free at last, free from all wires.

How about using your cell phone to directly project the file/image/video on the wall?

Your requirement for large screens may get solved.

Mobile phones are becoming more gimmicky and silly really, unless you're in the Gen Y bracket and love that subculture of gimmicks lol.

Call it whatever you like: cell phone, laptop, notebook, portable computer, all-in-one device - doesn't matter... there will soon be a 'something' that will replace both our comm device (both wired and wireless) and our 'office computer' very soon. Take it off the charging dock in the morning, and use it as a phone/GPS/radio/TV/newspaper reader on the way to the office. Dock it to your office setup so you can have a large screen and full size keyboard/mouse/speakers... then take it home and dock it to your home docking station, so you can continue working. It is coming!

Oh, and I'm not generation Y... not even X... my birth year would put me in the W generation if there was one.

I'd say we're within a year or two of it.

Take an Ipad chasis, put an iphone in it, give it a line-out for projection (or an onboard projectr?), give it bluetooth connectivity so you can use your phone with the tablet in your bag, give it an SD slot for external memory.

Done. You no longer need your phone, laptop, computer, TV, GPS, or simple camcorder/still camera.

The idea of a single "personal" device has been around for a long time - Android is rapidly making inroads against Windows, cell phones are nearly everywhere, and becoming more than powerful enought to do MOST of what people "need" (or generally want) to do with a computer.

My relatively old and simple cell phone has adequate web and e-mail - if I could plug in a keyboard and a bigger touch screen, I'd be about 100% for most "on the road" purposes, I would even pass on the mouse...

I still see the "need" for specialized "big iron" desktops with terabytes of storage and lots of RAM and multi-core processors for certain specific uses (editing and rengering being one of those), but look how rapidly things are shrinking in size, and increasing in horsepower (people are shooting and editing on iPhones and I'd presume Android based phones), and you can see a "pocket computing device" doing more and more.

The iPad altered permanently the perception of a computer, the smart phones are altering the concept of a "communicator" - the average person won't NEED a "computer" as is normally referred to in "desktop" or "laptop" format per se.

Now throw in a Hi Def video camera and high megapixel still camera (oh wait, they already HAVE...), and all sorts of lines get blurred beyond recognition for "content" acquisition, and delivery... worth thinking long and hard about.

As long as the costs continue to drop, I for one predict the demise of the "computer" as we know it in less than 5 years - we still will have "devices" to perform the functions (like a big screen TV/media player, and a personal communicator, and a few wireles pads here and there), but I don't see the computer being around conceptually for very much longer - we'll be more connected, everywhere, and you can't stick a desktop in your pocket...

It's all very well, but I remember my Nokia phone of about three generations ago with it's monochrome LCD screen, no internet, no e-mail etc..... But what it was really good at was making phone calls and texting! It would keep on going for days without recharging, never used to suddenly hang up and need a reset like my current smartphone, and press the "on" button and it would be ready to use within seconds.

My smartphone is also constantly losing network service in places where the good odd simple Nokia never had a problem.

Call it whatever you like: cell phone, laptop, notebook, portable computer, all-in-one device - doesn't matter... there will soon be a 'something' that will replace both our comm device (both wired and wireless) and our 'office computer' very soon. Take it off the charging dock in the morning, and use it as a phone/GPS/radio/TV/newspaper reader on the way to the office. Dock it to your office setup so you can have a large screen and full size keyboard/mouse/speakers... then take it home and dock it to your home docking station, so you can continue working. It is coming!

Oh, and I'm not generation Y... not even X... my birth year would put me in the W generation if there was one.

Sorry but I still don't see the point nor benefits of browsing the internet on a tiny screen (unless one has zoom vision like a camcorder).

I for one don't generally follow the 'latest phenomenon' unless there is a genuine benefit. I think desktop and laptops will be around for a while yet!

PS we call em mobile phones here.

Nokia 5110, still working.

The network provider wrote to me about three years ago telling me the phone would become obselete because the radio frequencies would be changing and I would have to upgrade - their special deal of course. I suspect they were pushing hard their new 3G or whatever its called.

I refused to do so and guess what, the network is still there. I suspect their sales people were being a little disingenuous.

They might also have had a fit-for-purpose problem relating to sale of an item ( coverage ) that did not last its seven years or so, if they cut people off the old network.

My concern about the trend to moving people off home computer onto a do everything mobile device which is heavy on internet integration is that ever last scerrick of what we do electronically will be there, easily on hand for surveillance.

Also editing computers may become a lower volume niche product and the cost may go up out of sight.

Sorry but I still don't see the point nor benefits of browsing the internet on a tiny screen (unless one has zoom vision like a camcorder).
I'm afraid you have not read the article quoted above nor have you watched the video.

I think these sorts of developments are important to keep "on the radar" - content delivery is rapidly changing!

You already should be thinking about content delivery for screens from around 3-5 inches up to 60+... Logically, a small "personal communications/data device" can easily have the necessary interfaces to hook up to bigger screens when available, or display on the tiny screen when you've got to be pocketable - I'm seeing this already in the marketplace, it's really just an alteration/evolution of the human interface.

My relatively cheap "almost smart" phone has a pretty decent touch screen, but yep, it's fiddly and small - but it DOES work when I need pocket sized internet access for certain things like e-mail. I'm waiting on the "smart" phone just a bit, but no doubt that will be the next upgrade in a year or two. by then I'd expect there to be "dumb terminals" of all shapes and sizes that I could plug a "smart phone" right into, anywhere I go, and perhaps have a secure connection back to my home server so I could work anywhere on "my" files, just over the internet/wireless. As memory size/processor speeds increase, and the intgration becomes tighter and smaller, more and more possibilites open up!

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Also editing computers may become a lower volume niche product and the cost may go up out of sight.
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I don't think that will happen at all. Historically, Pro-Tech only becomes CHEAPER as consumer tech becomes more sophisticated, especially in the video world.

Whats FAR more likely is that once they become mainstream tech, the high end "all in ones" will increase in computing power to the extent that you cn easily edit UHD footage on it.

Think about it, you can already edit 720p footage IN an iphone, with iphones (five dollar) imove app. Its basic, but it ALREADY EXISTS.

Apps will only get exponentially more sophisticated as the computing power of these devices increases.

I'd say that within the next 4 generations of iPad we WILL see FCP create a fully functional editing suite app.


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Of course, I sure wouldn't want to edit on one......
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Really? When i thought about it, the first thought through my head was "HOW AWESOME WOULD THAT BE? to be able to edit in FCP with my HANDS, and not a mouse." I think it would revive some of that "tactile intimacy" that i've heard people say they felt when they used to edit on KEM/Steenbeck, but was missing from NLE's.

I'd further say that within 6 generations, FCP (and pretty much every other major program) will ONLY be offered as an app download.

exciting times we live in.

Long long ago, in a galaxy far far away...*

"one day we'll edit video on our phones!"

"Huh?"

"One day soon, we'll all be able to edit video on our phones"

"Right. Where would you put the tape? And what's the point? I've already got a phone in my edit bay."

"No, it won't be just an edit system, our phones will have cameras too!"

"Great, so now you've got an edit system sitting on your desk with a camera and a phone glued to it, sounds real useful."

"No, no, no, I'm talking about cellular phones. Everyone will have one"

"What, are we all doctors in the future? Hope a call doesn't come in while you're filming your surgery!"

"In HD."

"Harley-Davidson?"

"High Definition"

"Television? Riiiiight. So what, we're shooting and editing videos on our cellular phones for a tiny segment of the Japanese TV audience. Sounds like a great business plan."

"Japanese? Sure, but everyone else too - everyone will be able to watch your videos on their cellular phones, big-screen high-definition televisions, or computers."

"So the public will all have high definition televisions, and computers with tv tuners? And everyone's hauling around a portable TV, stuck to the cellular phone that we're all somehow rich enough to afford? And video producers will also have edit systems and video cameras stuck to their phones, and will have to haul all of this gear everywhere for... what? Why would you want to carry so much equipment with you all the time?"

"So you can shoot, edit, and send your videos out to the world from wherever you are."

"Of course. Because we're also carrying around a satellite dish too. I should have known. Guess if you want a career in video you better start working out."

"Oh it's not just for video producers, millions of regular people will have one of these too."

"I should have known. Because not only are we all doctors - we all went to film school too."

"Of course not. It'll all be so easy anyone can do it. It'll only have one button. And it will fit in your jeans pocket. And be battery powered. And cost $200. It'll record hours of video with no tape. You'll be able to send your edited video to anyone in the world, instantly. To everyone, actually. You'll also be able to make video calls, and take photos. Watch movies. Listen to music. Check the stock market, read the paper, read books, get your mail, play games. It'll have an alarm clock, and a calculator, and a notepad, and a satellite navigation system. And all that's just the beginning."

"What the hell are you blathering on about? I thought we were talking about telephones here."

"Well, sure, it'll be a phone too. Actually, that part of it won't actually work so well. But all the other stuff will be great!"

"Yeah, and who's going to make this magical portable television studio telephone? Motorola? What do they know about video?"

"No, it'll be made by Apple Computers."

"Ok, this is getting ridiculous. Everyone knows Apple's almost bankrupt - I heard Sun is going to buy them. You just don't know when to quit, do you? Whatever. We've wasted enough time already. Go check and see if it's time to put another Beta tape in the deck."


* also known as "1995"

[QUOTE=David Heath;1610044
My smartphone is also constantly losing network service in places where the good odd simple Nokia never had a problem.[/QUOTE]

I kept a Mitsubishi cell phone (it was a lot more compact that the big brick jobs) for long a time - it became a conversation piece - because it could always get through in remote locations where the small compact handsets failed to pick up a signal.

The network signal thing is a shaky argument. Competitive neccessity and the decreasing cost of bandwidth will eventaully make it so that you can get a WiFi signal ANYWHERE on land, and a cellular signal everywhere else.

... all the existing TV programming distribution paths: over the air, cable, and satellite. Phone lines as we know them today will also become useless.

All the above will be replaced by the almighty INTERNET. In a first stage we might retain the wires, but eventually those will go too, we'll be free at last, free from all wires.

Great! Then the government can call up the ISPs and say, "Shut everybody off for a while" like they've recently done in Egypt. This is progress?

You're bumping in to a good point there:

With every service migrating to the internet, we're in even greater danger if a government should decide to pull the plug on internet based communications.

Better keep those "old school" communication mechanisms alive, even if it's just CB radio.

Just in case.

Andrew

I definitely think desktops are being pushed aside. Also I saw on the news how a couple years ago computer manufacturers thought Netbooks were going to be the next big item, since alot of people only need a computer for email & light internet usage. No need for high RAM or hard drive space. THen Iphones & Ipads & tablets replaced that thought quickly. Sales for them plummeted last year.


Sucks though about desktops, I much prefer the user interface & setup to them over laptops. I suppose they'll always be around, just not pushed as heavily. Next time though I think I'm gonna build my own, I've had a ton of problems with my new HP & their customer support is atrocious.

I'd consider netbooks to be transitional technology (Some consider Bluray transitional as well), so i'm not totally surprised they had a breif life on the shevles.

Netbooks were just one more attempt to sell users on a feature limited device at a slightly lower price... unsurprisingly, the price just wasn't low enough to compensate for the lack of features. While compact size is nice, if you're going to want portability, a cell phone with a decent size screen will provide a good percentage of the desired functionality and fit in your pocket, plus you've already got it, adding net connectivity is no problem.

It simply doesn't make sense to buy a netbook with its limitations for $300 or so, when you can buy a REAL laptop with a decent screen size and a DVD drive for a little more $$. Or get a "smart phone" you'd get anyway for a little less.

The Motorola idea is intrigueing for one aspect, the idea that the phone is the "brain" and you can attach different "bodies" or extensions to it depending on the requirements. Considering that most cell phones have all the horsepower most people would need for most functions, all you need is to add the capability for a larger screen, keyboard, mouse, external drive/storage...etc (printer... those are going wireless... ). Considering that a phone with a Micro SD card should hold enough "data" for the "average" user, I don't see why this concept shouldn't catch on...

I think it needs a "standardized" interface (WiFi?) to make the needed "connections", but other than that, it would make a "smart phone" even more attractive to the consumer if they could purchase accessories to make it more versatile (which if standardized, would last for a few phones potentially?). I'm seeing iPad copies with smaller screens already at the $100 price point, I'm guessing that these devices will begin to merge and become so cheap that everyone has one. Imagine your kids being presented with a tablet, and download all his homework, textbooks, etc, and upload his homework when it's done from anywhere, conference with the teacher when needed, etc.

"Paperless classrooms" actually exist already in many places, even in the US public school system. Looking at (and weighing) my third grader's backpack, I wish they would come sooner in my area too; it's ridiculous how many heavy books small kids need to carry around.

The first one has been organized 11 ears ago, in 2000, you would never guess where: in a small Kentucky farming city. Read the story here: Our Story (http://www.paperlessclassroom.org/story.htm)

I don't think they'll miss a thing going digital, except maybe handwriting...

Mine has a future appointment with the 7000' deep trench off the island of Grand Turk. One day I will see that it keeps it.

I'll go one further and say that the Motorola Atrix represents the possible/probable future of computing for ordinary people. Something like the Atrix, maybe in a larger form factor, and devices like the iPad are going to replace desktop machines for 90% of ordinary computer users. They could even potentially revolutionize the way most offices are configured, and even how they function.

That's not to say that I think desktops as we know them will completely cease to exist. I can see them still being retained for specialized purposes, and in situations where an iPad/Atrix type device lacks sufficient computing power.

The biggest problem I have with the iPad is that it's quite proprietary and locked-down and seems oriented toward depriving consumers of real computing freedom, with the idea of moving towards walled gardens, paywalls and other ways of forcing people to pay, pay, pay for every computing task they carry out. The issues I mention here actually serve to limit the potential of the device, not enhance it.

And don't get me started on the potential privacy ramifications an all-in-one, does-it-all-device like this could have.

In any case, I think we're on the verge of something historically huge here, possibly even earthshaking.

Great thread. With great responses. I think you knew your answer before you asked it, barring an economic geological alien invasion collapse it is the future and the future is now and then some.

To bore you with my own quick story which somewhat relates. Six years ago I made a conscious decision to plug in. That is for the previous decade I had no tv, internet, email, cell phone etc,. My kids were going crazy and forced me into the future. Just in time too. So I feel like I went from a primitive/reflective forest walker to a full on electricfied nethead. How I love my Iphone, Netflix, Amazon, BHphoto, and DVI! Indispensable.

I'll never forget my first day on the web. I had spent years, no decades, perusing used bookstores across the country for rare out of print books--Delacroix's journals, Neruda's Extravagaria--and bam! A few clicks and I can't even find words to describe the sensation.

But now I'm sitting here thinking all I'll really need this next round is a credit card and a cellphone (with aforementioned docking station) or whatever they're going to call it. But I'm even more interested in the future after this future. Computer chips implanted in the brain? Barcode tattoos? Fingerprint credit cards?