Well, I am at CES right now and had a very interesting conversation with Canon reps today.

I was at the booth shooting some stuff with my XL H1S and of course, that sparked some conversation with their video reps (including some Sony video jokes, lol).

I brought up the question about the future of the pro line. The rep did mention that lately, the most asked question they get is whether the DSLR type sensors will be put into the pro video line.

But then he proceeded to tell me a few tidbit details about their plans!

Of course, they weren't too specific, but apparently what's confirmed is:

1. The model is due to be released by NAB this year. They stated that NAB is something to watch out for big time.
2. The model will be all solid state (but this should be no surprise). There is no more HDV from the company. The XL/XH and the HV40 are definitely the last models.

Here's where it gets interesting:

3. The model is based on a new 3CCD design, they will be sticking with CCD. He wouldn't say more when I asked about sensor size, etc. Just that they are newly designed. They also said that they are looking at the DSLR sensor/video cam thing but it would be some time away.

4. The model will be their new top of the line high-end camera. Very interestingly enough, they stated the camera is of a new design as well. It would have design cues of the XL series, but apparently a different type of beast.

They wouldn't say anymore, only that they saw the prototype model and that's it. Only that I should pay very close attention around NAB time.

Very exciting indeed, I will try to talk to them tomorrow and weasel out more if I can, but my production schedule at the show may not allow for it. I'll try though.

On another note, I played with the new VIXIA HF S21 model and it really is a fantastic camera (wow, what a beautiful LCD screen!). Canon was even so nice as to let me shoot whatever I wanted at their booth, so I have a little video of the new cam. Hopefully I can get more tomorrow and maybe post something.

Sure sounds like Canon is getting ready to play their cards in the pro market.

Read all about it in my article: Canon Reveals Their Next Pro Video Cam (http://www.dvinfo.net/features/canon-reveals-their-next-pro-video-cam.html)

The title of Michael's thread was "Canon CES 2010 news - very interesting" and I've since renamed it.

(Apologies to Michael, there was a bit of a delay involved while I finished up the article. I had started
writing it back in the middle of December, and then the holidays got in the way, and then CES happened,
from which I just returned this weekend).

This will be the official discussion thread.

Great article Chris.
But ouch Canon!
You had the SLR sensor that changed the industry but not the foresight to get it into whats next for video.
We want Form-Factor dammit!
A Pity...
Go 2011! Or Scarlet for 2010! ;)
-C

This is an excellent article, even if it is largely speculative at this stage.

At a glance I'm rather underwhelmed by this camera (If Chris's predictions are correct). When the XHA1 turned up and - in my view - produced nicer images than the Z1 for less money, i was blown away and bought one. Since IMO the EX1 has been king of the heap for a couple of years now, i expected Canon to come up with something to knock it off its pedestal, but it's hard to see how this Camera will do anything of the sort.

Still, we don't actually know for sure, so better wait and see.

BTW, Am i right in thinking a camera that shoots to SDHC cards will not have overcranking ability?

Yes, well obviously its a little early to comment on what kind of overall image quality it will have. Who knows what the CCDs are capable of doing.

The only things that Canon were able to confirm at the show was that it was going to be solid state, a newly designed 3CCD sensor array, and an announcement time frame around NAB.

Thanks for writing such a well researched and in depth article. I too have been told by Canon reps that they don't want to jeopardize their pro lens market share by making something that would compete with other manufacturers camera products on the higher end.

finally bigger LCD that's on the top the handle, Thank God...
Should have planned to go to NAB this year.. (sigh).
Thanks for sharing the article/news, everyone!

JJ

If Canon does indeed go with CCD, rather than CMOS, in this camcorder, I hope they can achieve solid 800ish line recorded resolution for the 1080 line formats, like the HMC40 and most likely the NX cams, while keeping the cost down. 600ish line recorded resolution, with 1080 line formats, is just awfully weak at this point in time, employing AVCHD H264 compression (far more capable of encoding that level of image detail than HDV at almost the same bitrate).

HDV (and 600 or so lines of recorded resolution) represented a very practical approach to low cost HD image acquisition a few years ago, but really is just barely HD. Now it is quite practical though, to push a lot closer to achieving the full image detail potential of 1080 line video formats with low cost camcorders. Advances in hardware H264 encoding (smaller, more efficient, and lower costing chips) along with much more powerful mainstream CPUs beginning to make editing H264 encoded HD footage practical with desktop computers, are a large part of making low cost "higher" definition video acquisition practical. Another part of that though, are recent considerable advances in CMOS technology. While CMOS chips do indeed have disadvantages, as opposed to CCD chips, they have some very real advantages too. A big advantage is, they can be used to acquire highly detailed images, without generating nearly as much heat as CCDs, and that's just a huge consideration when it comes to designing a small, low cost, high definition camcorder that can reach well beyond recording 600ish line detail images.

According to the Canon pro-video reps at CES, their most asked question is when they will deliver an SLR sensor in a camcorder body.

I love my XHA1 cameras for their buttons, all the buttons are at the right place but by the time they decide to launch a new camera I'll own a Sony or Red Scarlet. Sorry Canon but you're taking too long.

According to the Canon pro-video reps at CES, their most asked question is when they will deliver an SLR sensor in a camcorder body.

They told me this too.

But they also told me in addition "that it would be some time away."

I love my XHA1 cameras for their buttons, all the buttons are at the right place but by the time they decide to launch a new camera I'll own a Sony or Red Scarlet. Sorry Canon but you're taking too long.

To be fair, Red Scarlet is a cam which in a lot of ways, has been a much longer wait. It was announced how long ago? And it keeps changing...

What I like from the "Big Companies" is that once its announced, its essentially real. These Canon cams haven't been announced yet, but when they are, they'll be ready to buy soon after.

There are some folks that are just (more than) thrilled with the idea of a large DSLR like imager in a camcorder (and quite vocal about it), but I think Chris pointed out the practical reasons it isn't going to happen anytime soon from Canon (or any of the other majors). It's just not very suitable for what the vast majority of folks buying their camcorders use them for.

Really, that sort of thing is basically what RED is about. It's not really mainstream. Largely, it's about achieving with digital cameras, what up until now pretty much required shooting film. Shooting film (or like film) is not really ideally suited for what most camcorders are actually used for (like ENG).

Yeah, I think that for outside narrative film production, a large sensor would make little practical sense.

Imagine trying to shoot ENG with that kind of shallow DOF... or a lot of event type work where you may need to be a distance away, or nature videography, etc.

There's a reason why there are 1st AC's in film ...

Great article Chris,

After reading that I reckon we'll have to wait until 2012 before canon release a full frame CMOS dedicated video unit.

Unfortunately the world is due to end that year, so it may put a dampener on the release.

Man that is disappointing after a long wait. Oh well, I guess I can go ahead with the lens that I want at least!

BTW, Am i right in thinking a camera that shoots to SDHC cards will not have overcranking ability?

Not sure what the new Canon will do though it looks like it could be a nice camera, however I have the JVC HM700 and it overcranks nicely shooting to SDHC cards so I would expect the Canon to be able to as well.

Have Fun,
Jim.

BTW, Am i right in thinking a camera that shoots to SDHC cards will not have overcranking ability?
From what I hear, the bottleneck has more to do with the adaptor and the speed of the USB-ExpressCard interface of the EX rather than SDHC cards as such. And apparently, it's far better with the EX1R anyway, the assumption being that Sony have changed the interface.

Also remember that AVC-HD bitrates are lower than XDCAM-EX, so overcranking shouldn't be so demending anyway.

I'm also a little underwhelmed by what I'm hearing - more of an NXCAM competitor than one for the EX1, let alone an EX beater.

I have the JVC HM700 and it overcranks nicely shooting to SDHC cards so I would expect the Canon to be able to as well.That's true Jim, however that camera is not AVCHD. This one is. I don't think higher frame rates are part of the AVCHD spec.

more of an NXCAM competitor than one for the EX1, let alone an EX beater.It is an NXCAM and AVCCAM competitor. That's exactly right.

Great article Chris,

After reading that I reckon we'll have to wait until 2012 before canon release a full frame CMOS dedicated video unit.

Unfortunately the world is due to end that year, so it may put a dampener on the release.

At least you can look forward to having excellent tools, just in time, for capturing doomsday in it's full glory with wondrously cinematic artistry.

Read all about it in my article: Canon Reveals Their Next Pro Video Cam (http://www.dvinfo.net/features/canon-reveals-their-next-pro-video-cam.html)

The title of Michael's thread was "Canon CES 2010 news - very interesting" and I've since renamed it.

(Apologies to Michael, there was a bit of a delay involved while I finished up the article. I had started
writing it back in the middle of December, and then the holidays got in the way, and then CES happened,
from which I just returned this weekend).

This will be the official discussion thread.

Oh well, a dream slowly dies.

Thanks for the report Chris. Very informative and very accurate.

Guess I gotta save up a TON more money because those RED cameras sure are going to be expensive (kitted out).

That's true Jim, however that camera is not AVCHD. This one is. I don't think higher frame rates are part of the AVCHD spec.

That doesn't mean that an AVCHD camcorder can't be made to step a bit outside the spec. Canon's 24F, from their HDV cams, steps outside the HDV spec. Specs, like rules, were made to be broken, or at least expanded on a little. I'm not holding my breath for it, but I do hope that one of the major camcorder manufacturers will decide to expand on AVCHD, by extending the bitrate to at least 50Mbps (which is actually quite doable now, with somewhat low cost flash memory - like "Class-10" SDHC, which is something else that steps a bit outside a formal spec, but becoming quite available in the real-world, and pretty affordably at that).

I seriously doubt Canon would do that, but I could sure see Sony perhaps considering it (if they aren't already). It would actually make a lot of sense, for replacing the aging MPEG-2 formats they use at the higher end, as the next generations of CPUs start coming out (with enough number crunching power to make handling H264 encoded video quite reasonable and affordable), as well as software engineering that finally starts taking significant advantage of the massively parallel processing abilities of modern mainstream GPUs (hopefully in the relatively near future).

Once we do get a couple CPU generations down the road, and GPU potential starts actually getting unlocked for editing purposes, the older, less math intensive codecs, as well as intraframe only compression, start to lose the significant advantage they currently offer (speed). We really aren't all that far away from mainstream computing solutions that handle interframe H264 encoded footage smooth as silk.

BTW, Am i right in thinking a camera that shoots to SDHC cards will not have overcranking ability?
Not at all. The HMC40 and HMC150 shoot to SDHC cards and they can do 720/60p on even a class 4 card. Potentially a Class 6 card should therefore be able to handle up to 90fps, if the manufacturers were inclined to go over 60fps (which, of course, they've shown no inclination to do).

But 720/24p @ 60fps should be no problem for an AVCHD camera.

It's time for Nikon to step it up and release a video camera with a full frame sensor. That would be a game-changer. They have nothing financially to lose by going into the video market.

That would depend on how big this market really is and if people are prepared to pay more than they do for say a EX3. If it's a no compromise video camera, you won't have the stills market subsidizing it with those larger sales volumes.

It's time for Nikon to step it up and release a video camera with a full frame sensor. That would be a game-changer. They have nothing financially to lose by going into the video market.

Venturing into an entirely new market can (financially) cost a fortune, if the venture turns out to be a huge flop. Entering the video camera market would represent a significant (and very risky) departure for Nikon.

Well as Red shows - there is a large demand for full frame sensor videocameras for low prices. How many red ones have sold despite the various difficulties of the camera. Yes you're right - it is a financial risk in that they would have to create a video department. But it almost feels like photo and video cameras are merging - and if they did it they would have the resources to get the right people on it and to expand their line beyond photography.

The number of RED Ones seems to be around the 6000 to 7000 mark, seemingly you can't tell actual number from just the serial numbers because there are numbers allocated for the cancelled cameras. These are S35 rather than full frame 35 cameras.

Stills cameras already do have video build in, which is fine for the consumer/prosumer market. I've just been looking at some and it's getting tough to find one that doesn't have video of some sort. However, it does become more difficult once the processing demands causes overheating problems, so compromises do creep in to keep the size and power requirements down.

The Red is very much aimed at the professional market, but the 2/3" cameras continue to dominate that market, not counting the 1/3" cameras. There are a lot of advantages to the smaller sensor size, which why RED is also producing a 2/3" camera.

I've got to think that RED might perhaps be in a pretty good position to come out with a camera that would serve the folks that are so enthralled by video DSLRs. They could essentially use much of the technology they've developed to produce a much simpler camera that is limited to recording 1080p AVCHD on just one type of flash memory card (a cheap one, like SDHC of CF), rather than offering larger formats, more ambitious codecs and multiple recording medium options, as well. A lot of folks, more or less, simply want the shallow DOF from a large imager, with the ability to change lenses, more reasonable camera layout and controls (for shooting video as opposed to stills), XLR audio input, and are quite happy with recording 1080p images using H264.

The irony is that the 5D2 generally doesn't overheat, but the RED ONE is known to have cooling problems. I know that some shooters have brought dry ice to warm climates to cool their ONES.

Unfortunately, the 7D seems to overheat for some users. Scarlet has some large vents on top, and will hopefully not overheat in normal circumstances.

To date RED has very much nailed it's colours to RAW rather than a video codec, a change would involve a change in company philosophy. That's not to say that they couldn't bring out a limited frame rate say 3k 35mm sized sensor to keep data rates down, but again they tend to go for the higher numbers in their sensors and it wouldn't come anyway soon regardless, they've got enough on their plate to keep them going for years.

If this camcorder has the same (or better) low light ability as the HMC150, I'm sold! I would love a built in/optional memory drive like the NXcam has. The only thing I hated about my A1 was the grain of the high gain settings. If it can compete in that area, I'm all about it. A solid-state XHA1 is nothing to write home about......but the mention of a whole new design is very promising :).

Now will this be announced or released around NAB?

Oh well, a dream slowly dies.

Thanks for the report Chris. Very informative and very accurate.

Guess I gotta save up a TON more money because those RED cameras sure are going to be expensive (kitted out).

Robert-

Don't fret to much...the dream is not dead, its just been pushed back for a bit. You know that Canon knows they have a winner with the 5D/7D technology and once they can work out a deal that satisfies the still division (a video configured camera that won't take away a chunk of sales from still), I think we will see the camera that we'd all like to see. Maybe that is at the end of the year, maybe that is next year but, as I have posted here before, the video division does look at this site often and they are reading what everyone has to say. This new camera that comes in a few months is the much needed update of a series of cameras that as a group, were/are the sharpest of the under $10k cameras with, by far, the best glass.

Jim Martin
FilmTools

It's awfully tough to sell me on a cam that's essentially pure speculation as to what it will actually be at this point. Canon simply hasn't offered hardly any detail yet or really confirmed anything, aside from it having a chassis that will look pretty similar to an XH-A1/G1 (from the mock up photos) and that it will record onto flash memory cards. That's just not much to go on. Don't get your wallet out quite yet!

Robert-

Don't fret to much...the dream is not dead, its just been pushed back for a bit. You know that Canon knows they have a winner with the 5D/7D technology and once they can work out a deal that satisfies the still division (a video configured camera that won't take away a chunk of sales from still), I think we will see the camera that we'd all like to see. Maybe that is at the end of the year, maybe that is next year but, as I have posted here before, the video division does look at this site often and they are reading what everyone has to say. This new camera that comes in a few months is the much needed update of a series of cameras that as a group, were/are the sharpest of the under $10k cameras with, by far, the best glass.

Jim Martin
FilmTools

Look at how many camcorders (in the professional realm) Canon has offered up for sale at once, in the marketplace at any given point in history. Look how often they offer something completely unorthodox in the pro video arena. Look at what the realistic potential market share would likely be for a prosumer camcorder built around video DSLR technology from the 5D/7D. The prospect of Canon putting out a thoroughly unorthodox prosumer video camcorder, essentially aimed at a niche market (built on technology that does have some serious problems at this point no less, like overheating issues), strikes me as about as safe a bet as a Beatles reunion tour.

I hope that Canon will still offer a camera with interchangeable lens.

I would more than bet that an interchangeable lens camcorder is a definite.

As I've pointed out in the article, an "XL F" model (a continuation of the XL series) is pretty much inevitable.

Would it be practical to put three 1/2.6" CMOS chips (similar to the chips in the HF-S series consumer cams) into that chassis, and still have at least a 10x zoom range? That could make for a pretty sweet cam.

Agreed, but that would spell the end of the line for the XL series (which must be a 1/3" lens mount), and I don't think Canon is willing to do that. I think they place a high value in supporting the XL lineage and also on very long zoom ratios, which are the two main reasons why this next one is 1/3" -- of course I could be wrong, but we'll find out soon enough.

Is anybody going to the MacWorld FCP SuperMeet (http://www.dvinfo.net/forum/digital-video-industry-news/468986-announcing-ninth-annual-san-francisco-supermeet.html)? They're billing "something super secret from Canon," and my bet is that the Canon USA guys will show up with this prototype. It wouldn't be much of a presentation if they didn't reveal at least some of the specs...

I seriously doubt Canon will move away from 1/3" imaging chips either, but if they did go with HF-S like CMOS chips, they could pretty much kick the competition (from Panny's HMC150 and the new Sony AVC cams) to the curb, in terms of low light performance and recorded image detail (as well as throw a bone to the shallow DOF crowd), and wind up with a camcorder that could be quite viable in the marketplace for even half a decade perhaps (and they do tend to prefer introducing only a very few prosumer camcorders every so seldom, yet ones that remain competitive in the marketplace for a number of years).

Maybe it's my eyes playing tricks on me, but looking at that mock-up again, I'd swear it looks just a little bit longer than the XH-A1/G1. My goodness, could that perhaps mean a longer lens to accommodate slightly bigger imaging chips?

Canon is definitely conservative. They never put out a prosumer camcorder that relies on anything even remotely science-fiction like, like trying to pixel shift progressive CCDs beyond belief, or test out a radical design that winds up yielding split screen issues, or come out with some new recording media that basically relies on technology that is still a few years away from being affordable (like gawd awful expensive, thoroughly non-standard flash memory cards, along with recording images encoded using a high bitrate codec, no less - yielding a whopping 10 minutes of recording time on a single card, or something nutty like that, that in order to have enough cards to store even an hour of footage without dumping the contents off to another device, cost enough at the time, that you might have needed to apply for a second mortgage).

That said, Canon always seems to offer up some innovation, that while it might perhaps break a convention, does not stress proven technology, but offers some sort of genuine real-world benefit.

Last time around, rather than get cute with CCD design, they simply used a pretty conventional approach (interlaced 1440x1080 CCDs) and delivered BOTH excellent interlaced AND excellent progressive recorded images - both, not just one, a bit sharper than any other camcorder, anywhere near it's class at the time. They innovated by breaking with the HDV spec, and recorded 24p images as natively progressive encoded images - clearly stepping a bit outside the formal HDV spec, but not exactly stressing proven technology at all. The end result was generally a pretty nice (and useful) improvement over what was being offered by other manufacturers at the time.

I'm going to make a prediction, as to what I think is the single most likely (conservative, yet effective) innovation Canon might offer up with their next new prosumer camcorder.

I think we may see Canon offer AVC encoded images, recorded to SDHC cards, but stepping outside the AVCHD spec a little by offering an option of 32Mbps encoding. That would really make a lot of sense, coming from Canon. It's not radically science fiction-like by any stretch of the imagination, doesn't stress technology significantly, and doesn't rely on anything particularly expensive, but would offer a real-world benefit, that is indeed a genuine improvement on what is currently being offered by any other manufacturer.

32GB Class-6 SDHC cards are quite reasonably priced nowadays (reasonably close to $100) and capable of storing almost exactly 2 hours of footage encoded at 32Mbps. Class-6 cards, by specification, would offer a minimum of 16Mbps sustained writing speed bandwidth headroom. (The SDHC spec calls for Class-6 cards to be capable of a minimum sustained writing speed of 6MB/second, which is 48Mb/second or 48Mbps).

Offering 32Mbps AVC encoding as an option, would offer image compression quality rivaling Panasonic's AVC-Intra, especially the 50Mbps flavor (for most typical footage), without requiring non-standard, expensive recording media. It would probably result in about the same kind of software incompatibilities as 24F "HDV" did - and essentially just as easy to fix. It would be innovative, in the real-world useful sense, and breaking a bit with convention, but not radical by any means.

Do you think it will have SD recording option?

That's a good question. Canon's consumer AVCHD camcorders don't offer an SD recording option. However, the newest VIXIA models announced recently at CES have an interesting in-camera HD to SD downconvert feature, which works in real-time playback, and offers a choice of making 9mbps or 3mbps standard definition copy of the selected HD material. If the new "XF" model (or whatever it's called) doesn't actually offer an SD recording option, here's hoping that it'll at least incorporate the same in-camera HD-to-SD downconvert function that the consumer camcorders have.

I suppose recording SD might make sense for some purpose, but I can't really think of any.

If the final destination is SD, you still get better quality by shooting HD with an HD cam, when it is downscaled properly. Even if the camera won't downcovert footage to SD, it's not particularly difficult to do (and do it very well) with any reasonably modern PC (using free software).

Who manufactures those 1/2.6" CMOS chips in Canon's HF-S camcorders?

I suppose recording SD might make sense for some purpose, but I can't really think of any.

If the final destination is SD, you still get better quality by shooting HD with an HD cam, when it is downscaled properly. Even if the camera won't downcovert footage to SD, it's not particularly difficult to do (and do it very well) with any reasonably modern PC (using free software).

Imagine Haiti for example. If you work for a news agency or a news broadcast channel and the most important thing is to deliver your footage ASAP you better record in SD. It takes less to import and you are going to compress it a lot to be able to send it through a bad internet connection or a Bgan satellite. I don't know if CNN or FOX are recording in HD in breaking news situations but most other channels don't.

Hence the importance of the news SD modes in the EX1R or the NX5 for guys like me.

That's certainly not something I thought of.

What Chris mentioned, about the consumer camcorders having the ability to downconvert in-camera to 9Mbps or 3Mbps SD would be a whale of a lot more practical for what you describe, than having an HD camcorder that can also shoot standard definition DV (like the HDV cams). DV encoded standard def footage is no less bandwidth consuming than HDV or AVCHD.

Actually, AVCHD encoded HD footage can be recorded using a lot less bandwidth than DV too. When I first got a HMC40, the biggest SDHC card I had at the time was an 8GB card. I needed to shoot something for a couple hours continuously though, so I knocked the recording quality down to the lowest setting - 1440x1080i60 at like 6Mbps, if I recall correctly, and the resulting footage was at least as good as anything recorded in standard definition. It was very low motion footage though.

Who manufactures those 1/2.6" CMOS chips in Canon's HF-S camcorders?Canon manufactures their own CMOS sensors.

Canon missed out on the CCD market -- they have to outsource those. However, interestingly enough, they
make the machines that make CCD sensors (mask aligners are part of their semiconductor equipment division).