So many places, I hear people bashing HDV, bashing DVCPRO-HD, bashing FX1/Z1U, bashing 1080i, bashing 720p. Etc...
Since 2005 seems to be the dawn of a new day in Digital Video in reference to HD, please....let's save this thread until 2/1/2006 and count the votes.

In this thread, place your bets on who will win the HiDef war.

Reply with your opinion. Now, c'mon people, we all know who 'really' thinks 'what', based on their past responses, tests, posts, arguments and claims. So don't come here trying to be politically correct singing cuam-baya talking about "let's wait and see, everything i've said in the past is speculative" and all that crap. MAN UP and don't be a punk. Say what you feel. Simply state what you believe NOW, post it HERE, let's not make this a big discusion forum. save discussions for other posts. Respect eachothers opinion and we'll see how it goes in 1 years time. *smile*

To make things easier for you, I will start it off.....
_________________________________________________

SHANNON W. RAWLS, Producer
- I believe 1080i will be the majority standard for Broadcast Television throughout the entire world and will remain to be until a HIGHER resultion option becomes available.
- I believe 720p HD cameras for television production will never be a standard of the majority and therefore be forced to up-convert to 1080i to be broadcasted naturally making better sense to originate your projects from a camera that shoots in 1080i.
- I believe for NOW and the FUTURE that anyone who shoots HD 720p is doing so because of a financial/economic reasons, and if "Money was no object" they would rather shoot 1080i. Which brings me to the new HDV format....
- I believe the Sony FX1 & Z1 HDV cameras are here to stay and will become staple equipment in most motion picture production.
- I believe that will be part of the inventory list in more production companies then any "comparable" camera made by it's competitors by Feb 1st, 2006.
- I believe the High Definition Video format, called "HDV" will infact be accepted for HD broadcast, and will be allowed as a master format to larger Cable HD networks such as HDNet, Discovery HD, ESPN HD, and others of the like by Feb 1st, 2006.
- I believe, regardless of numbers, comparisons and test charts, that the "HDV" format will in the next 12 months become the 2nd most accepted format next to HDCAM for Television HD broadcast. (ducking)
- I believe many TV shows that currently originate their footage in 35mm or HD will choose to use the "HDV" format as an alternate capturing format over any other competing format. Yes, that means, more then DVCPRO-HD on the new upcoming HDX camera or any other type of hybrid HD format that will be comparable to "HDV".
- I believe (and the numbers will soon show) that Sony will sell and continue to sell more HDV FX1/Z1U cameras then Panasonic or JVC until Sony themselves comes out with a newer version of this camera.
- I believe we will see a million dollar+ motion picture movie on the big screen shot with the SOny HDV cameras before any of its competitors. Which brings me to my next issue of Modes...
- I believe the CineFrame 24 (CF24) mode, despite its hate-mail and naysayers, will become an acceptable mode to shoot in with the Sony HD cameras.
- I believe one of those million-dollar+ movies mentioned above will have originated it's footage in CF24 mode and move on to be a blockbuster hit and the 'masses' will not care one bit and they will say "It looked great!"
- I believe the producer of that million-dollar hit will be me (dammit shannon, wake up!) *smile*

MY NAME IS SHANNON W. RAWLS, and that is what I believe
______________________________

If I am wrong on February 1st, 2006. I'll eat my words. *smile*

Now.....what do YOU believe?

- ShannonRawls.com

I believe in Shannon Rawls. :-)
Shannon, you are THE man.
Actually, after re-reading your list, I think I agree with everything on there, given the date caveat.

I believe 1080i IS High Def 720p is a wannabe, sorry Fox
I think Avid will, once again be king, but will have missed it's target date for HDV support.
I think we'll just be getting the first wave of BlueRay or HD-DVD...First to market will win because we will all author to the first out.
HDV becomes more widely accepted...Sony's only rival may be from Cannon.

I guess I'm not willing to stick my head out as far as Shannon LOL!

Canon in a complete twist of corporate philosophy will be next out with an industry stabilizing HDV camera with many of the feature set that has set them apart from the rest with the XL2. This device will provide 1080i and will hit the market just when the dual purpose dvds become the distribution medium. Current owners of the XL series will lament their purchase for only a short period of time, (since their interchangeable lenses will not be forward compatible) but will soon after revel in the superior image quality that their new XL3-HDV delivers. This early step up to the HDV arena will not be viewed as an early cannibilization of the XL but a necessary evolution.

Sony will have serious competition at that point in time and Canon's second rennaissance as suppplier to the indies and prosumer producers will officially begin.

I believe that the iPod generation will continue to push portability to the point that most viewers will be watching most video on their portable multimedia players with their wide 3.5 inch displays and my two trusty Optura Pi camcorders will thus remain on the cutting edge! :-)

I hope:

- all networks adopt 1080 (60i, 30p, 24p) as the standard
- the digital television industry make strides to attain true 1920x1080 native displays
- Blu-Ray becomes the successor to DVD is the preferred delivery format for movies, with true 1920x1080 resolution at 24p
- the HDV solution is successful until portable and replacable hard disk drives become the standard recording solution, with sufficient data rates for uncompressed video

I expect:

- the networks in the USA will adopt the 1080i standard
- the networks in Europe will adopt 720p
- the release of cheap DVCPRO-HD cameras will result in a large amount of 720p material being produced
- the large amount of 720p material will saturate in the airwaves, converted usually to 1080i, yielding interpolation artifacts up the wazoo.
- the TV industry will make largely 720p displays because they are cheaper, and as a result will incorporate electronics to take 1080i signals and interpolate back to 720p
- the Europeans will laugh because they chose the 720p standard, and maintain all native forms.
- the HD-DVD format will win out, as a result because they are cheaper to produce, and the bulk of DVD's will end up dual layer, with only 1 layer of HD-DVD so as to remain backwards compatible... in this instance, classic DVD-9's will actually have higher quality, than the DVD-5 layer of HD-DVD's, and the HD-DVD layer will be ludicrously compressed HD-video.
- 1920x1080p will remain only a high-end standard, not for use by consumers

Shannon..... Dude..... You really want me to re-iterate what I've already stated in other threads?

The only reason I got into this HD game was that I realised 4 years ago that HD would supplant SD as the broadcast medium for the majority of video being distributed worldwide by the end of the first decade and a half of this century.

The changes that have happened here in Australia as the broadcasters become more aware of HD's impact are nothing short of seminal, let alone rapid....

As 1080i is the highest currently available standard to the masses of HD video transmission, my early foray into HDV with the JVC HD10u was really only a precursor to obtaining the best of the 1080i generation of camcorders.

Not only was I impressed enough with the FX-1's factory stated statistics that I purchased one.... I have found the FX-1e to be a camera that deserves the label of 'classic'.

I don't think that Feb 1st 2006 will dawn to a HDV dominated world.... where SD exponents are throwing themselves Lemming like infront of the hoardes of Sony FX-1 wielding exponents intent on crushing all opposition... but there'll be a hell of a lot more people seeing that the naysayers are just cretins, and getting on with making HD programs for broadcast!!!

I believe:

- New Zealand consumers will not go "What's High Definition?" when you mention it to them.

- New Zealand TV will finally be playing movies regulary in 16:9 (Hi Def won't enter the picture until 2078)

- Canon will announce that they will be announcing something in 3 years time now that they see HDV is selling.

- Panasonic will bring out a superior camera, with a superior format but will have a small market share among professional camera users cause Sony was first and they own the world.

Steve Crisdale, I'm sorry but I only have a Bachelors Degree, and I don't know what the heck you're talkin' 'bout.
Just state what you BELIEVE for Feb 1st, 2006.... we'll discuss it in another thread. *smile*

<<<-- Originally posted by Shannon Rawls : Steve Crisdale, I'm sorry but I only have a Bachelors Degree, and I don't know what the heck you're talkin' 'bout.
Just state what you BELIEVE for Feb 1st, 2006.... we'll discuss it in another thread. *smile* -->>>

Ah... OK!! I've taken off my academic robes now ;)

Come Feb 1st 2006 I believe that HDV will be a format for HD broadcast transmission. No transfer to any other HD codec required, and the FX/Z1 series of camcorders will have gained a reputation as 'the' standard other prosumer camcorders are measured by.

Simple 'nuf?

Howdy from Texas,

Jimmy McKenzie wrote...

<< Canon in a complete twist of corporate philosophy will be next out with an industry stabilizing HDV camera with many of the feature set that has set them apart from the rest with the XL2. >>

Hmm, wishful thinking there Jimmy! Actually I believe the next manufacturer out of the chute will be JVC. They'll beat Canon to the market with "the next HDV camcorder," and it'll happen pretty soon! Canon is still a ways off yet, I'm pretty sure, that is, speculatively sure, if that's even the proper phraseology.

I beleive:

-Anyone thinking that Sony's crappy little HDV camera will replace the Sony HDCAM and Panasonic DVCProHD are kidding themselves.

-HD cameras with removable lenses will always be superior to the ZU1 and the like due to better lenses, bigger chips, and less compression.

-At least in the U.S., HD will be a niche market for many years to come, and programs will still be shot and broadcast in SD for at least five or six more years.

-HDV is not a pro format (that is why we have something called "consumer" and "professional" The engineers designed them for a reason.

Hmmm, February 6th, 2006.
Partly cloudy and cold, high about 37, low of 19 (in the north east anyway)

Nothing will be much different on the HD/SD front except for maybe a few more cameras sold. Most people will still not be able to afford a delivery method for HD and if they could they would have to decide which way to go, HD-DVD or Blu-Ray DVD or maybe hold out for that new format that squeezes 250G+ onto a single disk, but that won't matter because their TV's won't display it anyway, that's right, HD-TV's still aren't at a price point the average consumer can afford one.
I doubt a show with a budget to shoot on 35mm or Full HD would abandon their current tools to shoot in a long GOP format with 1/3" chips and 4:2:0 color.
You will see people making indy's with HDV, what else is new.

Panasonic will have a sub 10K DVCPro HD (4:2:2) camera that records to P2 cards but to fill the slots with cards will cost more than the camera and it will only record in 720P (not 1080i). It will be native 16:9 but will still only have 1/3 inch chips and an attached lens. (it's marketed towards beginning indy film makers)
Canon, well who knows what the heck their doing. They'll probably make an HDV camera called the XL-HD but it won't be released yet, still 6 months out but the specs look really nice.

I really have no idea but I can only go on a hunch, it took quite a while for DVD and DV to get popular, I STILL do not own a DVD player. I watch them either on my computers or my PS2. The DVD'S I do own, better play on a next-gen player or I'll be pissed, and I am by FAR not the only one who feels that way. When there is a sub $500 HD-TV and a sub $199 HD-DVD/Blu-Ray player, it will take off, until then it's going to be a niche market (in the whole scheme of things).
I will say that Apple will be the first to offer a Blu-Ray Burner in a store bought computer and it will probably happen by 2-6-2006, just like they did when they put the first consumer DVD burner in the G4, you know, 6 months before you could even BUY one for any other computer at $1000!

<<<-- Originally posted by Jacques Star : I beleive:

-Anyone thinking that Sony's crappy little HDV camera will replace the Sony HDCAM and Panasonic DVCProHD are kidding themselves.

-HD cameras with removable lenses will always be superior to the ZU1 and the like due to better lenses, bigger chips, and less compression.

-At least in the U.S., HD will be a niche market for many years to come, and programs will still be shot and broadcast in SD for at least five or six more years.

-HDV is not a pro format (that is why we have something called "consumer" and "professional" The engineers designed them for a reason. -->>>

Wow!! What's the FX/Z-1 ever done to you to deserve being labelled 'crappy'? Sounds suspiciously like someones unhappy....
Besides; I don't seem to recall anyone saying the HDV camcorders were going to supplant the far more expensive 'professional' cameras.
If you don't consider HDV a 'pro' format, would you then describe the 1080i MPEG2 sub-19Mbit data streams that HDTV channels are broadcasting (and will for many years to come) as 'pro'?
The fact that someone's World can get so 'rocked' by such an unimportant thing as HDV in comparison to the greater scheme of things is bizarre!!

<<<-- Originally posted by Jacques Star : I beleive:

-Anyone thinking that Sony's crappy little HDV camera will replace the Sony HDCAM and Panasonic DVCProHD are kidding themselves.

-HD cameras with removable lenses will always be superior to the ZU1 and the like due to better lenses, bigger chips, and less compression.

-At least in the U.S., HD will be a niche market for many years to come, and programs will still be shot and broadcast in SD for at least five or six more years.

-HDV is not a pro format (that is why we have something called "consumer" and "professional" The engineers designed them for a reason. -->>>

Jacques, I'm not sure of the reason for your angst, no one has suggested HDV is superior to a 2/3 chip cam with interchangeable lenses. But saying HDV can't be a pro format is simply absurd and naive.
Just for giggles, let's look at what you're shooting. DVCam is the same quality as DV at the end of the day, same bitrate, etc.
The Bogen 501 head....well, there is little more to say about that.
Azden mic....same comment......

But I'll bet you get the job done, right? With what you've got? And while a guy like me would look at your sticks, your mics, as being "not professional" and place them against my Sachtler sticks and head, plus my monstrous very high end mic collection, and our company LDK HD camera, I also know that it's a ridiculous comparison to do so.
Your own WFAA-8 is broadcasting media shot with the Z1. Are they not professional? ABC Nightline is using the Z1. Are they not professional?

And at the end of the day, while the 390 is a great cam in its class, the image quality won't match that of the Z1, simply because of the number of pixels and what the format can do.
Compression is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, while many of us are loving uncompressed, and will continue to do so, the trend in the industry is more efficient compression formats and schemes. When all is said and done, what counts is what the consumer sees. Since there are so many different variables in the human eye, coupled with the types of displays, compression will become more common, not less common.

Naysayers said DV could never be a pro format in 1997. I remember it well, as do many others. Chris Hurd and I met on a board where we used to read this sort of ignorance on a daily basis nearly 10 years ago. But in the face of that, easily 40% of what is on television as new media was acquired in DV. So, remember this day as the day you heard it said that HDV will be a major broadcast-destined format. With TI, Philips, and Intel all releasing MPEG2 decoder chips for televisions, and new format decoders for settop players in the next 90 days, you'll see more and more opportunities for compressed formats, and HDV to be prevalent. If Microsoft can withstand the new MPEG lawsuit they are facing, I predict a VC-1 or WMV-based camera in the next 24 months. And it too, will be broadcast quality.

Either way, it's one thing to say that HDV isn't your first choice. That's fine. But don't go knocking what you clearly don't know about.
The Bogen 501 and the Azden mic would definitely not be my first, second, or fifth choices. But I respect those tools for what they are and the market they're designed to sell into.

Shannon, mi amigo, you are spot-on with your predictions, except for the stuff about CF24, at least if you are specifically talking about theatrical release. (I am a Z1 owner also, btw...I love it.)

Because of the way it discards frames, my prediction is that Z1 shooters will opt for the more film-friendly 50i mode, use software to intelligently de-interlace to 25p based on motion detection, and then adjust the audio by 4% to match the framerate. (I intend to shoot a feature this way later this spring.)

I will concede however (and I'm not wussying out here) that the occasional film ("Open Water", "28 Days Later", etc.) buck convention, and format doesn't really seem to matter on those. But for film-out to 35mm, my prediction is still 50i->25p->24p.

-John

> Compression is not necessarily a bad thing.

Very well said, Douglas, and I'd like add one additional point regarding how "professional" the images from the Z1 are or can be.

DV compression is very inefficient compared to the MPEG-2 compression of HDV. This is why DV and HDV have the same bitrate of 25Mb/s, yet the HDV picture has 4-times as many pixels (and arguably a better color space of 4:2:0) than a DV camera.

But MPEG-2 is not easily edited, which is why we have companies such as Cineform producing a codec that is "visually perfect" but with a much fatter data rate than the original. For acquisition, however, we don't care that it's MPEG-2...we just want the best bang for our bandwidth.

My point with this is that the Sony cams move a helluva lot more pixels over the same size pipes as DV, and in fact, the data rate of the Z1 is a full 5+ Mb/s more than are ultimately broadcast to your converter box (and using the same codec).

-John

Well, Douglass Spotted Eagle.

Maybe i'm just a little upset at the buzz going on with all the little cameras that people are using.

I also am a little bitter with all the Mini-DV people out there who get my business because their day rate is half of mine or less...

I bought my DSR390 for a reason: first of all it's what i'm used to from back in my staff days shooting for a news station. Second, most clients want to see a full-size EFP/ENG camera with removable lenses or they feel like they're not getting their money's worth. Third, I find a large shoulder-mounted camera and broadcast lens easier for me to use.

I'm a freelance cameraman, and whoever i'm working for, whether it's MSNBC, The Learning Channel, FOX or whoever else, doesn't really care if all I can currently afford is a Bogen 501 head or if I'm using an Azden shotgun mic. All that they care about is that I get good shots, tell a good story, and get good audio. I had to work VERY HARD to even be able to afford what I have today, and my next purchase will probably be better heads for my tripod.

I also shoot on the Sony HDW700A HDCAM for HDNET, and I consider it a far cry from the ZU1. I've seen video from a ZU1, and did think that it looked good, but I heard that the HDV codec makes editing difficult. I haven't seen any artifacts, but again, I heard that the MPEG2 compression is problematic.

Once all my gear is paid off, I am going to buy my own HD camera, but it will be hard to convince me to buy a small handheld model as opposed to an ENG style body with removable HD lenses.

Jacques, I can understand your angst. This coming from a guy who easily has a couple million sunk into audio recording gear, I was the first all-digital studio between NYC and LA many years ago. How do you think I feel about all the desktop studios that are coming into the game? Even to the point that the world-famous Hit Factory has had to close it's doors.
I was the first known person in history to record live concerts to a computer using 16 channel experimental cards from MOTU. See...rather than getting really pissed about what I had and what it cost me, I jumped in early and figured out where it was going. Because frankly....the gear don't mean sh**. It's what I know, what I know to to with it, and how good I can make things sound. That knowledege has brought me 11 Grammy nominations. When people hear I WON my Grammys using an Audio Technica 831b (99.00 mic) they crap their britches. It's not about the gear.
I've got a boatload of old vid gear including a full AVID system that I now see on Ebay for less than 1500.00, that cost over 60K new a few years ago.
Short answer to your angst and cheap cams taking over your biz?

Deal with it.

I just spent a third week at WFAA teaching their directors and producers how to edit. Why? Because directors-only and producers-only are being fired across the country left and right. FCP, Sony Vegas, Avid DV Express are finding their way into replace Quantels, Avid DS, Newscutters...and the world wants Preditors. People who produce/edit, and that often means shooters and grips, too.

I'm just past 40 years old. I spent a grundle on an Ike 55 a few years ago. Then I bought two XL1's, then I bought broadcast lenses for same, then I bought more and more....we now have 24 cameras in our house, and rent most of them. Most are almost obsolete except for the high end. That's the way of technology.

If you wanted a job-safe industry, lose your creative ability, go work for the State as an auditor or janitor. You'll probably make more money, but be a lot less stressed over what's new and coming tomorrow.

If you're unhappy now...just wait'll uncompressed HD hits the streets at 20K.

I like the Janitor part.

Yes, I am dealing with it. And, you're totally right about it not being the gear but what you do with it.

I've only been shooting for a little over five years. And, I consider myself very lucky to already have my freelance work being shown on broadcast and cable networks like FOX and The Learning Channel. It takes many people years just to get where I am now.

I LOVE my job and being a lighting/cameraman. (I do some FCP editing as well.)

I don't want to do anything else other than video and film production, and I won't do anything else. I do agree that a lot of production people are living just somewhere above the poverty line (especially smaller market news staff). But, don't forget, I know some freelance cameramen that do ENG/EFP and make about 300K in their peak years.

By the way, Paul Rios and the rest of the Photogs over at WFAA are very wonderful and talented people and watching their newscasts is a great way to learn good visual storytelling....

Do you have a website? I'd like to see some of the work that you're doing...

Douglas Spotted Eagle? hmmm...interesting name...

anyway...check out my website, personally, I don't think that my videography is that bad for a 24 year old...

http://www.jacquesstarvideo.com

cheers,

-J

I have several websites, just google my name. You'll get more information from other websites about me than you'll get from mine.
If you're interested in some of my credits (not up to date)
http://www.spottedeagle.com/credits.htm
Yes, Paul is a great guy. I work very closely with his brother, John, who is the director of the noon and 6 news, but he's also a producer of the LaVida and Metro shows, plus he's becoming an editor with some of the others over there.

Prompted by Shannon's predictions thread... can I just clarify one thing. When people say "Fox is 720p" and "Europe will go 720p", are they meaning 720p30, or 720p60 ?

(I suppose that would be 720p25 or 720p50, in the case of Europe).

Jaques: You might be just 24 but don't punctuate the fact with arrogance ... "interesting name".... If I misunderstood your pithyness please accept my apologies.

You might want to do a little research before you start running with the big dogs. Or in this case just so there are no mixed metaphors: soaring with the eagles.

Respectfully - Jimmy.

Hi Jacques,

You've just received some very good advice from D.S.E. (among many other things, he is also a Grammy award-winning recording artist), but let me expand on two things real quick.

<< Maybe i'm just a little upset at the buzz going on with all the little cameras that people are using. >>

Sorry to hear that, but there is a *reason* for all that buzz. And it's not about what you have, but how you use it.

<< I also am a little bitter with all the Mini-DV people out there who get my business because their day rate is half of mine or less... >>

If their day rate is half of yours, then they are NOT getting YOUR business. Other shooters who charge the same rate as you are getting your business. It's all about how you market your skill set. You don't want the clients who pay those cheaper rates, so don't concern yourself with them or the shooters they attract. Focus on your own market.

Okay, this thread has been highjacked enough -- let's please get back to Shannon's original topic. Thanks all,