http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto121920071725119265

in the busy shopping period since Thanksgiving in the United States, Blu-ray has been responsible for more than 72 per cent of all high-definition discs sold in the US

consumer confusion could see both overtaken by digital downloads or video-on-demand. "There is a very reasonable chance this market may not take off at all," said JP Gownder, principal analyst at Forrester Research.

The stakes extend beyond disc sales and could determine whether Microsoft, Apple or Sony ultimately take control of video distribution into the digital living rooms of the future.

http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto121920071725119265

In the busy shopping period since Thanksgiving in the United States, Blu-ray has been responsible for more than 72 per cent of all high-definition discs sold in the US.

Sales don't show the full picture. Why buying if you can rent? Although Netflix's Blu-ray pages receive more hits, users are more likely to set HD DVD as their preferred format (http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/34235/113/). I myself rent HD-DVDs on Netflix.

I don't have a horse in this race, just found the article interesting - especially the comment that neither format may take hold. Looking at the link you posted however, this is what caught my eye:

The more important statistic is that neither high-def format is even close to matching DVD demand. According to compete.com, only 0.3% of all Netflix viewers even viewed the Blu-ray or HD DVD sections.

Personally I don't own any kind of high def disk player, and have no plans to buy one in the immediate future. But it's fun to watch from the sidelines.

Hollywood Reporter Predicts 2008 Win for Blu-ray
Posted December 21, 2007 by Josh

As this year comes to a close, Hollywood Reporter is making a few predictions about what they expect to see from Hollywood next year. With regards to the format war in 2008, they predict, "Blu-ray blows away HD DVD". Citing the strength of sales as the major reasons for it eventual success, they also suggested that the PlayStation 3 is a major driving force for the format.

More notable about the article is that current Blockbuster trends show Blu-ray being favored 70% to the rival format at stores featuring both products. With those statistics, Blockbuster is sure to maintain their current company policy to support Blu-ray

The big prize is Warner Bros. Right now Warner releases in both formats. Toshiba got a big win by getting Paramount to choose HD DVD exclusively (for a reported $140M.)

If Warner chooses HD DVD, the market share of the two formats will be split about 50/50. If Warner chooses Blu-ray, BD will have a 70/30 advantage.

Still, people want to be able to watch ALL the movies, not 30%, 50% or 70%. For a format to truly win, it needs 100%.

I'm not sure about HD-dvd companies,
But Blu-Ray has been selling an insane amount at the Target I work at
(gotta fill up the gas tank with some money).

One thing I noticed is that they have been offering a a ridiculous deal throughout the holiday season

A blu-ray player
two movies
AND
a $100 gift card
all for $499

that was the black friday sale
and my store ran out of blu-ray players by 7:30,
we had about 50 of them instock.

I think good deals like that could also be a make or break point in the war.

Have you noticed that HD-DVD is backward compatible with DVD. The HD-DVD players also have the ability to play regular blank DVD's with HD content. This will attract Event Videographers. It seems in my area that price is important and the HD-DVD players have been outselling Blue Ray. The X box for gammers has more growth potential and uses HD-DVD. A year ago I would have bet on Blue Ray but as 2008 arrives I have changed my mind. The icing on the cake for me was the news that HD-DVD triple blanks have been developed that will hold more information than Blue Ray disks. Sony must be screaming Not Again!

Have you noticed that HD-DVD is backward compatible with DVD. The HD-DVD players also have the ability to play regular blank DVD's with HD content. This will attract Event Videographers. It seems in my area that price is important and the HD-DVD players have been outselling Blue Ray. The X box for gammers has more growth potential and uses HD-DVD. A year ago I would have bet on Blue Ray but as 2008 arrives I have changed my mind. The icing on the cake for me was the news that HD-DVD triple blanks have been developed that will hold more information than Blue Ray disks. Sony must be screaming Not Again!

Sorry, but most of those statements are complete FUD. Please do some research on both formats. It's uninformed statements like the ones above that make this format war go on and on.

1. Blu-ray players are backwards compatible with DVD also.
2. Blu-ray players can play DVD's with HD content (burned several myself using Sony Vegas).
3. Blu-ray has a higher installed base of players than HD-DVD.
4.The X-box 360 itself does not use HD-DVD, it a seperate add-on which can be purchased for around $150 to $200.
5. The LOWEST ratio to which Blu-ray software has been selling HD DVD software within the past year is approx. 60% for Blu-ray to 40% for HD-DVD.
6. HD-DVD's new triple-layer will increase capacity to 51 gigabytes. That is the maximum in the current HD-DVD spec. All triple-layer HD-DVDs (whenever they are authored, it is has only been accomplished in a lab and has not been practically implemented in any way in a real world scenario) will NOT play in ALL first generation HD-DVD players and most 2nd generation ones. The capacity for dual layer Blu-ray discs (which exist now, some examples being Cars, POTC) is 50 gigabytes. The current Blu-ray spec can go much higher in capacity than HD-DVD could ever possibly go. Sony already has demonstrated this, as have other independent companies which make discs for both formats.

Downloads, and the tech is coming. I'm heading out to CES in 2 weeks, and I plan on meeting with the guys and gals behind the tech for HD over IP.

Heath

Much mainstream press is focused on sales of the discs themselves, but do not underestimate the power of all those $1000 HD camcorders being sold. With HD-DVD offering no burner (needed for projects over 40 minutes), and HD-DVD players apparently NOT playing AVCHD discs, there will be increasing sell-thru for Blu-Ray. I make projects for several family groups, and they are gradually buying Blu-Ray players.

As for a download only route, who actually trusts ANY internet storage site to stay in business more than a year or two. That is not a solution for long term family memories.

Downloads are great - if you have broadband.

I can buy DVDs, HD DVDs and BDs. And I can even give them as gifts. But I can't download them. Not here. Not in HD, let alone SD.

I live within 18 miles by car from an international airport. I can walk to the top of a hill and see it. And the best I can get in stinking 2007 is 256 kbps for $50/month from a wireless ISP. I'm sitting here right now struggling just to update a website over ftp.

Anybody who tells you "the market" is the most efficient vehicle for delivering services is lying. Comcast picks the lowest hanging fruit. Sure, that's efficient for Comcast, but not for outliers.

The US ranks something like 17th in broadband deployment. Last I saw, Albania was ahead of us. If you want a ubiquitous infrastructure (e.g. the Interstate system, the phone system), you need government involvement.

Maybe downloads will be ubiquitous in South Korea or Japan, but I fear that I still won't have broadband in another decade. There is no indication that my situation will ever improve, unless I move. Or until franchise agreements require 100% coverage. Yeah, that's gonna happen.

And how do I put a download in your Christmas stocking?

-END OF RANT-

Well, people give iTunes Store gift cards in stockings, but I see your point. However, the technology is getting better all the time. No one thought they could fit HD onto a minidv tape or a flash or SD card, and they did it.

Intel is working on technology to help port high quality HD video over the web, among other major companies.

Heath

I guess my overall point is that downloads will work well for many, but packaged media is universal. Well, at least DVDs are and VHS used to be.

Hopefully, we will soon have a universal HD disc format - and downloads/streams.

[QUOTE=Don Blish;797086] With HD-DVD offering no burner (needed for projects over 40 minutes), and HD-DVD players apparently NOT playing AVCHD discs, there will be increasing sell-thru for Blu-Ray. I make projects for several family groups, and they are gradually buying Blu-Ray players.
QUOTE]

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/12/17/toshibas-qosmio-g40-now-with-worlds-first-hd-dvd-rw-drive/

I think CES next month will bring more HD DVD burning options. What i'd like to see is more fleshed out authoring programs. Plenty of programs that deliver HD/BD authoring but in a rather "no frills" manner. Here's to hoping Apple delivers HDi and BD-Java options in their next DVD Studio Pro update.

This war in unwinnable. I'll pick up a BD player next year when I can snatch a solid model for $250 and eventually I'll consolidate to a Universal player when I like the price there.

Universal players are what it'll take for mass consumer adoption IMO.

And the best I can get in stinking 2007 is 256 kbps for $50/month from a wireless ISP.

Are those kiloBITS or kiloBYTES per second? You can get over 1500 kilobits/sec where you are today. I live in the middle of nowhere too and couldn't get DSL or cable when I moved here. I got a 1 meter dish from Hughesnet with their small business package. Just looked at a download test I ran then where I got 1.59 megabits/sec and that was pretty typical.

Now of course satellite connections can drive you crazy because of the latency, but they aren't too bad for downloading files. Of course it isn't cheap though, I was paying over $100/mo. But now I have DSL at 3 megabits/sec for less than $30/mo. Eventually it will probably come to your location. Until then, this is the price we pay for living someplace remote and beautiful. But the real point is that people like us are in the minority. FIOS, cable and DSL already reach huge numbers of people; certainly enough to make them an attractive market for content providers.

Universal players are what it'll take for mass consumer adoption IMO.

I think the price will have to get much lower as well. At this point it's still a toy for people who want the latest gadget and have the disposable income. I love all this kind of stuff but haven't found a compelling reason to make the jump to either format. The disks do look nice on the HDTV's in the store, but not enough to make me want one.

I have a very large collection of DVD's and can hardly ever remember a time watching them when I wished they were in HD. Just last night my daughter and her husband were visiting and we watched a nice anamorphic DVD on my 37" ED Plasma screen. They both made several comments about how great it looked. I buy these DVD's on sale between $5 and $10 each. When I can do that with high def disks, when I can get a player for under $100, AND when I think it won't be obsolete in a couple years... THEN I'll make the switch.

I'll be in line right behind Boyd...

Right now there's a pretty wide disparity between supply price and demand price...

"old" (meaning a few months) DVD titles are cheap (like 2-3/$10), and look great on a $30 progressive scan DVD player on a decent flat panel display... new titles are $15-20 when they come out, deduct the $4 you'd spend on a rental, and it's still way cheaper than a trip to the snack bar at a theater...

My screen is not as big, but it's calibrated, my surround sound is done right (movies with gunfire are scary, had to pick more than one guest up off the floor <wink>), and most times my feet aren't sticking to the floor depending on how wild the kids have been... after they go to bed it's quieter than most theaters, and I can pause the extended version of LOTR to go to the "library"...

$300-400 for "HD" player and $30 a title/disk, most of which I don't want to watch anyway - at least so far, and it just isn't "there" economically...not to mention what happens if one format "dies"...

Now if I played games and had PS3 or Xbox... that may ultimately be the driver, as those units have "multipurpose" features. Standalone HD players just don't add up quite yet.

Most of the 50 Blu-rays I have purchased have been off Amazon with buy one get one free sales. Free shipping. Delivered for under $10.

I am all for the format war if I can keep buying Blu-rays for that price.

David,

I was an early adopter of DVD, and many websites at the time offered buy one, get one free or for 99 cents. It was a one-time offer, so I convinced my friends to buy more, so I could build up my collection.

My first DVD ever was Blade. YEAH!

heath

I can't wait for CES, by the way, because a lot of the tech toy companies there will be showing off HD content over IP. Should be fun!

I do agree about collectables: Unlike CDs (give me iTunes Music Store), I love my DVD collection. I have some great sets, plus one of my hobbies is buying Criterion DVDs. Also, Criterion (www.criterion.com) haven't even mentioned hi def DVDs yet.

Heath

Isn't HD over IP already happening? I mean with apps like bittorrent being utilized for this kind of thing, I think HDOIP is already a viable reality. Take Azureus for example. They have the "VUZE" app (which is like BT with a media browser) where you can download HD content now. Granted, it's content like H.264 or WMVHD, at much lower bitrates, but the products are pretty phenomenal. My ideal setup... a set top Media Center PC with an HDMI out and LG's blu-ray/hd-dvd combo player for an extra $299. Oh yeah, it's also a multi format dvd burner. Until things settle down, I think it would be cool to have something where you can switch out components, a-la media center PC.

Yeah, it's almost here.
Check out Akamai's test site:

http://www.thehdweb.com

They're heading towards HD VOD within a year.
And it's doable. I was at the industry HD summit earlier this month and saw some wavelet compression stuff that silenced the room.
Within a few years we'll be able to email a feature film length program to each other. And I'm not talking 120x80 either.
Also a cigar box sized SDI-to-wavelet converter with hot swappable high (read huge) capacity 2.5" flash drives...
Yup, it's gonna be in interesting year.

I think the price will have to get much lower as well. At this point it's still a toy for people who want the latest gadget and have the disposable income.
How much lower than $100 do you want the price to drop? Even $200 (HD-D3 at Costco) is a pretty good price, even if this were a regular DVD player. A decent DVD player costs more than $100 anyway, here you get both SD DVD and HD.
I have a very large collection of DVD's and can hardly ever remember a time watching them when I wished they were in HD.
Same here, but only for feature movies. For documentary stuff like planet Earth watching it in HD is a totally different experience.
I buy these DVD's on sale between $5 and $10 each. When I can do that with high def disks, when I can get a player for under $100, AND when I think it won't be obsolete in a couple years... THEN I'll make the switch.
HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are backwards compatible with DVDs, so you don't lose anything by buying an HD player. In regards to HD disks, just rent them. I don't buy DVDs anymore unless this is something that I cannot order from Netflix of Blockbuster or something that I REALLY want to own and watch over and over for several times, like "Blade Runner" that I just bought, in HD. Got it on Christmas Eve, the best gift ever.

How much lower than $100 do you want the price to drop? Even $200 (HD-D3 at Costco) is a pretty good price, even if this were a regular DVD player. A decent DVD player costs more than $100 anyway, here you get both SD DVD and HD.

Same here, but only for feature movies. For documentary stuff like planet Earth watching it in HD is a totally different experience.

HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are backwards compatible with DVDs, so you don't lose anything by buying an HD player. In regards to HD disks, just rent them. I don't buy DVDs anymore unless this is something that I cannot order from Netflix of Blockbuster or something that I REALLY want to own and watch over and over for several times, like "Blade Runner" that I just bought, in HD. Got it on Christmas Eve, the best gift ever.

I have to agree with Michael! Even my "old" Sony DVD player, which is now sitting on top of my Toshiba HD DVD player, cost more than the Toshiba. With 10 HD DVD's, shipping and all I paid $172.00.

On top of that, I was trying to play an old DVD for a client the other day and the only DVD player it would play on was the new Toshiba. Strange!

And, yes, I plays all of my older DVD's.

Mike

Guys, if I had a high def player and disks to go with it, I'm sure I'd like it. I don't doubt that you're happy with yours. I'm certainly not going to make an argument that high definition isn't better than standard definition. But I think you may have missed my point. I don't want one yet.

There are lots of other expensive high tech toys that I've spent a lot of money on, so this is one thing which I've just decided to sit out for awhile. It just isn't compelling enough for me to spend a lot of money on at this point, and the uncertainty about the standards makes me even more reluctant.

But you guys make a good sales pitch! :-)

Guys, if I had a high def player and disks to go with it, I'm sure I'd like it. I don't doubt that you're happy with yours. I'm certainly not going to make an argument that high definition isn't better than standard definition. But I think you may have missed my point. I don't want one yet.

There are lots of other expensive high tech toys that I've spent a lot of money on, so this is one thing which I've just decided to sit out for awhile. It just isn't compelling enough for me to spend a lot of money on at this point, and the uncertainty about the standards makes me even more reluctant.

But you guys make a good sales pitch! :-)

I felt the same way you did Boyd...until I got my hands on one of Sony's 70" SXRD sets. Once I had that amazing, huge, picture in my living room, my appetite for an image that would take full advantage of it's capabilities became overwhelming!

I'd already been following the format war with great interest, and based on everything I read, it appeared that Blu-ray was winning. So I opted for a PS3, even though I'm not much of a gamer. I absolutely love this machine! Nearly every month, Sony updates the firmware and adds new features and improves existing ones. The machine is growing steadily.

But then Paramount threw a monkey wrench into the works by switching from supporting both formats to HD-DVD only (in exchange for $140 million bribe!) and as it happens, I'm a major Star Trek fan. So I grabbed a Toshiba HD-XA2. I find it to be an outstanding player, and it's upscaling capabilities are phenomenal!

So, now I have the best of both worlds and I'm loving every minute. After all, it's only money...

P.S. I still think that eventually Blu-ray will win, given the latest sales figures for disks and machines. Either that, or both formats will be killed off by something else. Until then though, I'm all set! :-)

I hear ya Larry. But a 70" TV isn't in my immediate future either :-)